As with any election campaign, a key issue that arises time and again on the doorstep and in TV debates is voters’ trust in politics. Moments like the expenses scandal 15 years ago and Partygate more recently have done untold damage to the public’s faith in our elected representatives, and trust is at a 40-year low.
Conservative Betting Scandal
If voters were beginning to forget past sins, the emergence in the last week of allegations that a number of senior Conservatives, including two candidates and possibly a Cabinet minister, had placed bets on the date of the election have brought sleaze back to the fore at the worst possible time for the Conservatives. Interventions by party bigwigs, including Michael Gove’s comments that the gambling scandal is perpetuating a sense that it’s “one rule for them, one rule for us”, are adding to the feeling that this is a party on the verge of collapse.
Labour’s Trust Challenges
Labour strategists may be delighted that this has fallen into their lap so close to polling day, but a common view heard by colleagues on the doorstep is that “they’re all the same”. While the gambling scandal may have short term benefits for the party hoping to govern, many voters will view these latest indiscretions as simply emblematic of a wider malaise.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party is not immune to questions about its own integrity. Voters have expressed misgivings about how much they could trust Sir Keir Starmer given his support for the then Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, in 2019. Starmer has since disavowed almost all of Corbyn’s policy platform and argues that he was campaigning for Labour with absolute certainty that Corbyn had no chance of winning the election – an awkward defence that in a tighter race may have caused Starmer significant difficulty.
Liberal Democrats’ Haunted Past
Sir Ed Davey will be delighted that his stunt-heavy campaign has given the Liberal Democrats a platform to build a very respectable result, so he may have been somewhat stunned to have the party’s infamous election pledge to abolish tuition fees of 14 years ago thrown at him at Question Time on Thursday evening. Having courted young people during that campaign, that betrayal of voters’ trust was and continues to be keenly felt.
Farage and Reform UK
Nigel Farage, the perennial “outsider”, clearly sees himself as the beneficiary of the decline in voters’ trust, accusing the Conservatives of betraying Brexit by failing to implement it “properly” and arguing that blue and red are indistinguishable. For someone who has never had to compromise in government or even sat in Parliament, this is a simple game to play. What’s more, potential Reform voters don’t seem to be put off by the serious holes found in Reform UK’s manifesto. They know Reform UK won’t form any part in government, so, at least for now, it seems the trust voters place in the party can be repaid simply by Farage continuing to be Farage.
Trust is an essential ingredient for a stable and productive politics with which voters and businesses can constructively engage. With not long to go in this campaign, it’s incumbent on all parties to prevent further damage to faith in politics and policymaking, and each new and returning MP will have their part to play.
To keep up to date with the latest news and views on the UK General Election, head to our Hub for more insights.
It is fair to say that nobody expected FMCG policy to be front-and-centre of an election campaign dominated by economic growth and immigration, but as the UK closes in on polling day, what could be in store for the sector?
With a recent IPSOS poll estimating Labour could win 453 seats, it is as certain as things can be in politics that Keir Starmer will become the next Prime Minister, with the bookies overwhelmingly backing a majority government. With this relative comfort, Starmer opted to last week publish a broad brush ‘fully costed’ manifesto consisting almost entirely of existing pledges.
More stick than carrot for HFSS?
From an FMCG perspective Labour’s Shadow Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, has long advocated for tighter HFSS regulation to address preventable health conditions and reduce the burden on the NHS – previously pledging to “use the heavy hand of state regulation” to improve public health.
With that said, perhaps Labour’s manifesto is only the tip of the iceberg. The key headline was a commitment to ban the sale of energy drinks to under-16’s – a pledge dropped by the Tories over fears of reneging to a nanny state, despite many UK retailers already enforcing a voluntary ban. Other policies of note include banning junk food advertising to children, restricting the advertising of vapes, and a continuation of Sunak’s plan to create a smoke-free generation. Little detail on how these would be implemented was included.
An encore for the King of Leon?
There have been whisperings around Westminster that Labour will revive Henry Dimbleby’s National Food Strategy, which would leave Starmer with a fine balancing act between incentivising healthier lifestyle choices and mandating measures which could drive up food inflation. Streeting himself has pledged to ‘steamroller’ the food and drink industry with measures to tackle HFSS and ultra-processed foods (UPFs) – assuming a Labour victory, Streeting will certainly be one for the watchlist for promotion during any reshuffle.
Beer, wine and Number 10 (again)
A promise by Keir Starmer to hold one fiscal event per year will provide light relief for the UK’s beer, wine and spirits industries, who continue to live budget-to-budget on excise duty regimes. This includes a raft of reforms announced in 2023 (coming into force in Feb 2025) to tax all alcohol by ABV which presents significant challenges for the wine industry (mainly SMEs and importers), who face the burden of preparing for 29 new tax bands.
Despite no pledges to freeze duties making their way into the manifesto, both Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves have hinted support for a freeze to beer duty as part of the party’s plan to breathe new life back into the UK’s high streets. As we’ve come to expect with Reeves in charge of the coffers, this support doesn’t come without the caveat that anything in a future Finance Bill must be within strict fiscal rules.
Defra – a department in flux?
Perhaps most worryingly for businesses seeking clarity over the direction of travel for recycling reforms – including Deposit Return Schemes (DRS), Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)– is the distinct lack of detail on waste and resource policy. The only nod coming in the form of a generic ambition to reduce waste by moving to a circular economy.
It is no secret that Defra has been struggling to progress its waste and resource reforms, and it seems likely the department is earmarked for its own reforms under a potential Labour Government. While there is a clear opportunity to engage with a party which hasn’t yet formed a concrete position, there is the risk that new impetus in the department could lead to rash decision-making by Labour’s policy team.
As we await the result of July 4th, businesses across the FMCG sector should use the period to align their strategy and messaging to Labour Party priorities, preparing to engage by providing pragmatic solutions and offering front-line business insights into the impacts of specific policies.
To speak to our FMCG sector specialists about how we can support your business during this year of political change, please contact Michael Broughton (michael.broughton@grayling.com).
The road to Downing Street runs through the Midlands. The region comprises several bellwether constituencies that Sunak and Starmer will need to win if they want the keys to No 10, from cities and market towns, to former industrial heartlands and rural shires. Since the 2005 general election, the Conservatives have increased their vote share at every general election in the Midlands. This looks all-but-certain to change in 2024.
Rebuilding the ‘Red Wall’
The 2019 general election saw the Conservatives sweep aside large Labour majorities in its working class strongholds, winning the support of new Conservative voters who were unhappy with Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party and wanted to get Brexit done. This time around, Brexit is done and Sir Keir Starmer is trying to expunge the memory of Corbyn. In traditional bellwether seats such as Nuneaton and Lincoln, the picture is grim for the Conservatives fighting on two fronts against Reform UK and Labour.
The recent local elections saw Labour gain control of several key councils, such as Nuneaton, Redditch, and Tamworth. If these trends play out across the region on 4th July, Labour is on course to regain not only seats it lost in 2019 but those that fell in 2010 after the party’s 13 years in government. It may even win rural seats that Blair failed to take in 1997.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party faces a further, potentially existential threat in the form of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, from which Labour will be the main beneficiary. Driven by unease over rising immigration and the failure to deliver on the promise of ‘levelling up’, polling indicates that a significant portion of the Conservatives’ 2019 voter base in the Midlands will switch to Reform UK. Nowhere is more emblematic of this than the East Midlands seat of Ashfield, whose MP Lee Anderson was elected as a Conservative in 2019 but has since defected to the party.
The Liberal Democrats could also regain a foothold in the region since their wipeout at the 2015 general election, with the party primed for gains in the more affluent Shropshire and Herefordshire counties.
Not all a bed of roses for Labour
Labour also faces its own challenges in the region. The Midlands is home to cities and large towns, some with large Muslim and student populations. Labour has faced significant anger from some Muslim voters over its stance on the conflict in Gaza, with the Labour Muslim Network recently warning that many Muslim Labour voters felt “betrayed”. This played out in the recent West Midlands mayoral election, when an independent candidate who ran on a pro-Palestine ticket almost denied Labour the mayoralty, winning 70,000 votes. Labour also faces dissatisfaction from young progressive voters in Midlands cities, driven by their concerns about a perceived lack of ambition on issues like climate change and public spending.
Although the Greens and independents may benefit, this is unlikely to have a material impact on results given the scale of the likely swing to Labour. However, it could be a problem for a midterm Labour government.
Calling businesses in the Midlands
If current polling trends are replicated on 4th July, Labour looks set to form the next government off the back of large gains in the Midlands and elsewhere. The region is home to party bigwigs such as Pat McFadden, Jonathan Ashworth and Shabana Mahmood, which presents an important opportunity to Midlands-based businesses to build on their local ties and demonstrate the value they bring to the region.
If you are a Midlands-based business and want advice about how you can navigate a change in government, get in touch with our Head of Public Affairs, Alan Boyd-Hall.
We are now firmly in the second half of this election campaign and the Conservatives seem to have given up any hope that they can win. You can see why. Poll after poll suggests that they will be lucky to get 100 seats, with Labour seemingly on course to win around 450. Rishi Sunak looks increasingly uncomfortable, and people are beginning to feel sorry for him – not a good sign for his campaign team.
Sunak looks south
The Conservative strategy is wholly focused on defending seats in the south of England which for years have provided seats with majorities of more than 10,000 for high flyers, including several Cabinet members. Polling indicates these are anything but safe, so the voters of Surrey and Sussex, Hampshire and Wiltshire, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire have been treated to multiple visits from senior Conservatives attempting to shore up waning support. Retaining seats here is essential for the future of the party, not just to avoid being wiped out but to ensure that there is a reasonably sized pool of MPs from which a new leader can be chosen to pick up the pieces.
The Conservatives have two attack lines that we should expect to dominate the remaining weeks. They continue to assert that Labour will increase taxes (claims repeatedly rebutted by Labour) and that voting Conservative is the only way to avoid giving “former Corbyn supporter” Sir Keir Starmer a “super majority”. It is a strategy to dissuade disgruntled Conservative voters from voting for Reform UK. The reality is that Reform is not likely to win more than two or three seats, but splitting the vote leaves Labour and, in a few notable cases, the Lib Dems, a chance to take seats from the Conservatives. I am not convinced the message is landing.
Labour needs business
For its part, Labour is continuing to pursue a cautious strategy, reassuring voters that is the only choice for change and that it can be trusted with the economy, security and public services. It has deliberately avoided showy stunts and its manifesto was in line with an agenda already well-rehearsed. The most notable element of it was the focus on growth – it is a big gamble to pin plans for investment not on increasing taxes rates but on increasing wealth. The party will be counting on voters sharing its confidence or at least not listening to sceptics.
If last week was all about Starmer and the manifesto, this week will see Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, take centre stage, with a pledge to “restore economic stability”. We will see this message appearing on billboards and flooding social media. She will also host an “infrastructure day” bringing in business leaders to discuss plans to harness private investment to boost growth.
This wooing of business by Labour will continue well beyond the election. While it has undoubtedly contributed to perceptions that Starmer has delivered on his promise to change the Labour Party, its purpose was always deeper. With the public sector financially constrained, Labour needs business if it is to achieve its vision for growth.
Get in touch with Alan Boyd-Hall for more on how Grayling can help you Navigate Change.
Following the conclusion of the EP voting, our teams across the CEE region bring you our analysis how did the citizens of Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia choose their representatives.
The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the largest political group in the region, amassing more than a third of the total seats the group obtained across the EU. Adding the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) to the mix, it is clear that the region is mainly represented by the right of the political spectrum. Political shifts happened across every country in the region, not only in the political programmes being voted upon but also in the figures that will be going to the new look EP.
Out of the 181 MEPs (25% of 720), there will be 101 new faces in Brussels. Turnout was mixed across the region. The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia all saw record turnouts, with Hungary and Romania being the only two regional Member States above the EU’s 51% average. However, turnout in the region still remains low overall, signalling that local politics trumps the politics of Brussels in the mind of the CEE electorate.
High turnout in Hungary paved the way for the newly formed party TISZA to truly challenge Fidesz, which for the first time in 20 years did not secure an absolute majority in the EP elections. In Poland, Tusk won his first election in 10 years, but PiS still remains strong – a sign of how strong the polarization within the Polish society remains. On other hand, an unlikely alliance between the left and centre-right Romania secured them wins both in EP and in local elections.
In Slovakia, half of the new MEP representation will not be part of any of the active factions in the EP, while Croatia boosted their EPP numbers to the detriment of Eurosceptics. In the Czech Republic the opposition won the EP elections and there was a tide of protest coalitions against the current establishment.
In line with the continental trend, Bulgarian politicians were focused on local developments, driven by the local snap elections which took part simultaneously. Slovenia used these elections as an opportunity to hold referendum votes on matters such as medical and personal use of cannabis and rights to support of assisted dying, all of which the government won.
Together with the general overview how the politics have shifted in the region, this analysis identifies key MEPs to track in the next 5-year mandate, alongside key local highlights and insights from local elections that were held simultaneously with the EP elections.
Download your copy of the EP elections results – CEE region report.
Tanks, lawns
The Conservative Party’s astonishing record of time in government has been down to its ability to adapt, unideologically seeking the centre ground of public opinion and nicking policies from other parties. Conservative governments have, within the space of a few years, gone from advocating austerity to promising lavish spending on left behind communities, from hugging huskies to “cutting the green crap”. There is a reason that the party is one of the most successful electoral forces in the western world.
Labour has been watching. Angela Rayner’s words before the manifesto launch – “you can’t tax your way to growth” – could have been taken directly from a Conservative attack on Ed Miliband in 2015. Labour hasn’t missed an opportunity to call out what it alleges have been 25 tax increases since the 2019 election. Its core pitch, driven home as the first of Labour’s “steps for change”, is that it, not the Conservative Party, is the party of fiscal discipline.
Prudence with a purpose?
This has worked for Labour before. The tagline for Gordon Brown’s 1998 budget, which more or less stuck within Conservative spending plans, was “prudence with a purpose”. This was aimed squarely at reassuring those who perceived Labour as the party of tax, spend and profligacy. The Blair government eased into its spending plans with a great deal of early caution before increasing investment in public services, underpinned by a consistently growing economy.
The economic situation in 2024 is clearly incomparable to 1997: public debt is the highest it’s been since the 1960s, the tax burden is the highest since 1948, and yet public services are not performing. But many Labour members are concerned that the leadership is unnecessarily boxing itself in. They fear that the Labour Party has sacrificed its mission to deliver social justice on the altar of fiscal discipline. By capping corporation tax at 25% and ruling out increases to national insurance, VAT, or any of the income tax bands, Labour is setting itself a genuine challenge to deliver the improvements to public services that voters are desperate for – even with increases to capital gains tax and fuel duty, which haven’t been expressly ruled out in the manifesto.
The growth gamble
Labour’s gamble is that economic growth – mentioned 49 times in the manifesto – will pay for good quality public services as it did in the early 2000s. Rachel Reeves’ diagnosis of the country’s economic weakness, that it is being held back by low productivity caused by supply side weakness, has been welcomed by economists.
One of the solutions, planning reform, gets a good hearing in the manifesto. It confirms that a Labour government will give combined authorities new planning powers, re-introduce mandatory housing targets, reclassify datacentres to avoid being held up in local planning, take a more “strategic approach” to releasing greenbelt land, and create a new super-quango, the National Infrastructure & Service Transformation Authority out of the NIC and IPA.
While all important, there are some that would advocate for a more radical approach to planning and other key initiatives like Great British Energy, which some fear will not be able to compete with the enormous public subsidies being doled out in other markets.
A “no surprises manifesto” is what Sir Keir Starmer promised in the Sky debate last night, and it is what he’s delivered. The approach is one of caution, for now. Labour will be hoping that falling inflation and an expected reduction of the base rate in August will give them a more favourable economic wind – one that eventually carries them into the second term in office that they want and surely need.
With pop sensation Taylor Swift embarking on the UK era of her global tour in Scotland, politicians have been quick to capitalise. From the renaming of Loch Tay to Loch Tay Tay, which was endorsed by First Minister John Swinney, to Scottish Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville telling voters to “shake off” the Tories and calling the Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer a “Blank Space”, it seems Scot’s voters will be in for a Cruel Summer this general election.
Duguid drama as Ross resigns
The Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross, has announced his intention to stand in the general election, despite having previously committed to standing down to focus on the 2026 Holyrood election campaign. The seat, Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, was to be contested by former Scotland Office minister David Duguid. Ross said in interviews that he was brought in to run as a candidate of last resort. However, Duguid took to social media to clarify that he had every intention of fighting a campaign, but that the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Management Board stepped in to deny him the candidacy following a recent medical operation, with no apparent medical consultation.
Following on from this, Ross then announced he would be standing down as leader of the Scottish Conservatives. Ross said he intends to carry on in the role until after the election and will also resign as an MSP if he is re-elected to Westminster. Ross originally said he believed he could serve as an MSP and MP, as well as party leader, but came out on Monday saying, “on reflection, that is not feasible“.
Going Green
The Scottish Greens announced this week that that they will stand a record 44 candidates in the upcoming general election, surpassing the party’s previous record of 31. It had been understood that the Greens deliberately chose not to field many candidates for fear of splitting the left vote. However, following the collapse of the Bute House agreement with the SNP earlier this year, the party now seems to be throwing their full weight into this general election campaign.
Dinnae forget the policy!
Scottish leaders have their own series of televised debates, which are key to establishing which policies and issues are front of mind north of the border. Interestingly, all four main parties are currently sparring on macro-level topics such as austerity, cost of living, Brexit and management of the economy, rather the usual constitutional questions. Compared to previous general election cycles, the conversation around independence has been largely absent. This has been picked up by activists and commentators, prompting the SNP to publicly state this week that page one, line one of the manifesto will be about independence.
Another policy area proving pertinent in Scotland is net zero targeting, and what this could mean for the oil and gas industry. Aberdeen and the surrounding areas will be looking closely as how parties say they will secure the future of these regions, with new extraction licences a key topic of debate. Parties will need to convince the people who rely on the industry that a pivot to renewables will protects their livelihoods in practice.
This week we should see the publication of the SNP manifesto, likely to focus on economy, cost of living, child poverty, rural issues and energy development plans in Scotland. We’d also expect to see a renewed focus on delivery of core services and the reform of education, something as a former Education Secretary, John Swinney, likely feels is unfinished business.
As the campaign continues, those north of the border will be keeping a keen eye on how the parties in Scotland show they’re championing the nation and if they can put Holyrood-led issues aside to make their voices heard down in London.
With the General Election campaign so far plagued by gaffes and missteps, the Conservative manifesto launch saw Rishi Sunak’s last-ditch attempt to shift the polls away from what can only be described as disastrous. Before manifesto week, a Labour victory was nearing inevitable, but recent polling suggests the battle is now on for the Conservatives to even hit that 100 MP mark, and – remarkable though it is to utter these words – cement its chances of being the second largest parliamentary party and official opposition.
It’s against this backdrop that Rishi Sunak unveiled his manifesto at Silverstone, the home of the British Grand Prix.
But far from being revved and ready – it appears the Conservative engine hasn’t yet ignited. And time is running out as the clock ticks down to Polling Day.
Despite last-minute efforts to cram in as much as possible into the 76-page document (albeit cutting and dicing existing announcements in the most part), it all still feels a little bit safe, and does not offer the clear policy platform needed to secure a seismic shift in the Conservative Party’s fortunes. In short, today’s launch shows there’s very little left in the tank when it comes to new ideas, and an uninspiring recent track record to fall back on.
Instead of a total reversal in fortunes, the Conservative top team will be hoping for just a modest gear change to save at least some Tory MPs on 4th July, and reduce the size of the Labour majority. A defeatist attitude, yes – but a fitting one, with reports rumbling that a rebel manifesto from the Tory-right could be launched next week, should Rishi Sunak’s own manifesto launch fall flat in the coming days.
With a raft of Conservative parliamentary candidates on the precipice of losing a job, and future leadership hopefuls smelling blood as they politely clap on the PM from the sidelines at Silverstone, the next three weeks remain a fight for survival for Rishi Sunak. Who could blame him for looking forward to a sunny summer holiday in California…
But before we hit fast-forward to the election results, let’s take a closer look at today’s manifesto pledges.
At the first ITV head-to-head debate, we saw Rishi Sunak claim that a Labour Government would result in a £2,000 tax rise per household. Despite this statistic since being disputed, it certainly landed blows to Starmer in the first debate (12 to be precise), where Sir Keir came out with a pretty tepid 49% favourability rating. A disappointing result for Labour on the eve of a landslide election victory.
And so, with this manifesto launch, the Conservatives are keen to once again draw battle lines based on taxation: Labour equals high tax, Conservative equals low tax. A time proven strategy, if delivered correctly.
The manifesto pledges another 2p reduction in national insurance, representing an overall tax cut worth £1,300 to the average worker. However, it seems unlikely this will be enough to move the needle on the Tories’ electoral fortunes. Surely now would be the time to roll the dice and take a bigger, bolder risk.
Other headline policy announcements include a new Help to Buy scheme for new builds under £400,000, a commitment to cut income tax personal allowance for pensioners, and a pledge to make permanent the £425,000 stamp duty threshold for first-time buyers. Rishi Sinak’s speech also reiterated the “triple lock plus” plan and leaned into the “anti-woke” agenda, pledging to protect single-sex spaces.
The real debate begins now, as political analysts and Labour Party economists pick through the detail of the full manifesto document.
Rishi Sunak has already faced tricky waters during this campaign for policy announcements with little detail or thought sitting behind them, namely the National Service announcement which unravelled under the microscope within hours. So it’s now time for Rishi Sunak to hope that his special advisers have done their sums correctly, as the more punishing scrutiny and media rounds begin. So far, Keir Starmer has accused the Prime Minister of “building this Jeremy Corbyn-style manifesto, where anything you want can go in it, none of it is costed”, and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has already suggested that the £12 billion projected savings from welfare reform look “difficult in the extreme”.
All in all, the Conservatives leave Silverstone today less with popping champagne corks and a trophy, and more with the smell of burnt rubber in the air.
It’s now over to the Labour Party for their own manifesto launch on Thursday. Can they further accelerate their poll lead to new heights?
By Victoria Murphy, Associate Director. To get in touch with our Public Affairs team, please contact victoria.murphy@grayling.com.
By José Arroyo & Cameron Kelly | Brussels, European Union
The June 2024 European elections marked an important moment for the continent’s political landscape. As citizens from 27 countries cast their votes in one of the largest elections in the world, the results indicated notable changes in voter priorities, political allegiances, and the balance of power within the European Parliament. The election period was characterised by heightened political disputes and a shift away from discourse surrounding climate and sustainability, a core feature of the 2019-2024 mandate, towards issues such as competitiveness, migration, and defence. The voter turnout remains stable, at around 51%, almost the same as in 2019.
A shift to the right
In line with predictions, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) has emerged as the largest political group in the European Parliament, securing 186 seats, accounting for 25.83% of the total. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) followed with 134 seats, representing 18.61%. Renew Europe (RE) garnered 79 seats (10.97%), while the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) obtained 73 seats (10.14%) and 58 seats (8.06%) respectively.
This election marks a significant change in the balance of power between the left and right wing in the European Parliament, as gains made by the EPP and far-right come at the expense of, most notably, Emmanuel Macron’s Renew and the European Greens. All eyes will now be on European Commission President and lead candidate of the EPP Ursula von der Leyen, who will have to decide on whether to maintain her political allegiances with the pro-European Renew and S&D groups or seek support from parties to her right. Either decision will have drastically different implications for the EU’s legislative priorities over the next 5 years.
However, in her victory speech on election night von der Leyen clearly indicated that she was aiming for the first option, declaring: “There remains a majority in the centre for a strong Europe, and that is crucial for stability. In other words, the centre is holding. But it is also true that the extremes on the left and on the right have gained support, and this is why the result comes with great responsibility for the parties in the centre. We may differ on individual points, but we all have an interest in stability, and we all want a strong and effective Europe.”
Change, but not fundamental
While this shift to the right indicates growing Euroscepticism and nationalism in some countries, the fundamental structure of the European Parliament remains relatively stable, as the pro-European centrist coalition has successfully retained its majority with 401 seats. This suggests that the outcome will not fundamentally challenge the governability of the EU, even if the far-right gains in seats. This suggests that the outcome will not fundamentally challenge the governability of the EU, regardless of whether the far-right have gained seats.
European Commission President and lead candidate of the EPP Ursula von der Leyen will now likely seek to recreate a centrist coalition with her political counterparts in the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew Europe (RE) groups. This approach mirrors the coalition formed during the 2019-2024 European mandate. A coalition with far-right groups, including the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID), is now ruled out due to their insufficient seat count and the refusal of the S&D and RE to cooperate with far-right factions – though the EPP could form alliances with these groups to secure a majority for certain policy files and political decisions.
What next?
Now, the European Council, representing national heads of state and government, will meet to analyse the result and nominate a candidate for Commission President, presumably von der Leyen. The next step for the Commission President nominee will be to secure an absolute majority vote from the European Parliament – this will likely take place at the new Parliament’s first plenary session in July.
Once the Commission President is confirmed by Parliament, the European Council, with the agreement of the new Commission President-elect, selects a list of candidate Commissioners, one from each Member State and each assigned a particular policy portfolio. These candidates attend hearings before parliamentary committees to review their respective fields of responsibility, and to approve (or not) each Commissioner candidate. We would expect to see the final “college” of Commissioners confirmed by the end of November.
In the meantime, EU national leaders will agree on the EU’s political priorities that will guide the EU’s action for the next five years. It is to be adopted in June 2024 and will likely confirm the support for “New European Competitiveness Deal” to enhance industrial competitiveness.
Incumbent losses and French snap election
The impact of the European elections have not just been felt in Brussels; the results have also dealt a significant blow to some incumbent national governments, including Germany and Belgium. But perhaps the most significant immediate outcome of the European Elections has been French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative election just hours after provisional results indicated a landslide victory for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, amounting to a staggering 31% of the French vote versus just 14.5% for President Macron’s governing Renaissance party. The President’s announcement is likely strategic, seeking to capitalise on Le Pen’s unpreparedness for a parliamentary election campaign while also seeking to mobilise voters who did not participate in the European elections but may be concerned about a far-right majority in the French National Assembly.
Get in touch with the Grayling Brussels team at BrusselsPA@grayling.com for tailored insights into how the elections result will impact your organisation.
Enter Nigel Farage
It would be an understatement to call last week a bad one for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives. It started with Nigel Farage announcing that he would indeed be standing as an MP (for Clacton) and was assuming the leadership of the Reform UK. The Conservatives have been worried about Reform picking up support from its right for some time. News that Farage, who has huge media clout, was taking over the party’s leadership was a big blow to an already challenging campaign.
Even more worrying from a Conservative perspective is the prospect that Farage might actually win a seat in Westminster, something he has failed to do on seven previous attempts. Could it be that in Clacton, the belle of the Essex coast, he might just break his duck? The thought of him sitting in Parliament, either drawing Conservatives from the right of the party to Reform, or, worse still, becoming a Conservative himself and vying for the leadership of the party is horrifying many Conservatives. Those in the centre and left of the party worry that this would be a catalyst for the breakup of their party. Their concern is not necessarily misplaced. Indeed only this weekend, Farage unveiled a six-year “masterplan to reshape politics” and asserted that he would form the “real opposition”. This morning Suella Braverman is openly suggesting that the Conservative embrace him. Much will rest on the good burghers of Clacton.
Sunak’s tax claim
On Tuesday, Sunak faced Keir Starmer in the first TV debate of the campaign. Both men were tetchy, and the format didn’t make for a proper exchange of views. Starmer was probably a little weaker on the night, failing to rebut swiftly Sunak’s repeated claim that the Labour Party would increase taxes by £2,000, a figure he claimed had been calculated by civil servants. Sunak will have gone to bed delighted that he managed to land that punch. By the morning, though, the claim was unravelling, not just because Labour had got its act together but because the most senior civil servant at the Treasury took the very unusual step of publicly distancing himself and his officials from the claims . This is as close as a public servant will come to calling their political paymasters a liar. All very unedifying.
D-Day disaster
Thursday should have been a day off politics as we marked the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings, poignant not just because this will almost certainly be the last time the veterans of the event will be able to attend the commemoration, but because it was being marked in the shadow of another land war being fought in Europe. Rather than take the day to let the accusations of dishonesty die down, Sunak decided to leave Normandy early for a TV interview to defend the £2,000 tax rise claim. It was a breathtaking lack of judgment. Disrespecting veterans was clearly the worst offence, but by absenting himself from the international events Sunak conceded the world stage to Starmer.
Despite his apology, Sunak has been roundly condemned, including by his own Cabinet colleague Penny Mordant on the second TV debate on Friday evening. Privately the criticism he has faced from his own colleagues has been brutal, donors are said to be furious, and reports from those Conservative activists braving the doorstep this weekend indicate that its not going down well with the voting public.
Over to the manifestos
It is hard to know how Sunak and the Conservatives can come back from a week like that. They will be hoping that the publication of their manifesto, expected Tuesday, will provide a fresh opportunity to appeal to their core supporters to retain as many MPs as possible, beginning with a focus on crime and sentencing today. It looks increasingly the case that they would need a serious Labour misstep to get them back in the game.
It is not impossible that Labour will blunder. Their immediate and real worry is that its lead in the polls will encourage its potential supporters that they need not vote at all or that they could vote for another party and still get a Labour government. It will seek to spend the remainder of the campaign dispelling this view. The party will be hoping that its manifesto, due to be unveiled on Thursday, will reassure voters that it will bring stability, change and reform while not increasing taxes. Its strategy will focus on the main issues, avoid doing or saying anything that will alarm voters and leave the Conservatives to implode.
In Nicky Morgan’s latest episode as host of the Vantage Point political podcast by Grayling, she speaks with Tanya Joseph, recently appointed member of the Grayling Senior Advisory Board and former senior Labour advisor.
In this episode, Tanya and Nicky dive deep into:
🔹 Labour’s potential edge in the 2024 UK General Election and what we can anticipate from its manifesto.
🔹 The high stakes and intense pressure of election campaigns, dissecting the strategies and challenges ahead.
🔹 An analysis of the recent South African elections and the significant political ramifications for the country.
Listen now or head to our Spotify channel to listen to other episodes in the series.
Labour has dominated the political scene in Wales for decades. Not only has it held power in the Senedd for a quarter of a century, it has emerged as Wales’ biggest party in every General Election since 1922, currently holding 22 of the 40 Welsh seats in the House of Commons. With boundary changes coming into effect, this year the number of constituencies in Wales will drop to 32, with Labour currently predicted to win at least 25.
Labour’s stronghold across South Wales remains unwavering, and the party is expected to re-gain a number of seats in the traditional North East ‘Red Wall’, where voters were overcome with ‘Boris-mania’ and swung Conservative in 2019.
Boundary changes mean the party is polling well in formerly rural Conservative seats, such as the Vale of Glamorgan and Monmouthshire, leaving well known figures including Secretary of State for Wales, David TC Davies, in serious danger of defenestration.
So yes – for now, Labour looks set for success in Wales, but, with newly-minted First Minister Vaughan Gething facing an ongoing row over donations to his leadership campaign, this will not be without controversy.
Welsh Labour’s current scandals are less than ideal for campaigning, with candidate for the new seat of Mid and South Pembrokeshire, Henry Tufnell, refusing to campaign alongside the First Minister. With Vaughan Gething having lost a vote of no confidence in the Senedd yesterday, it may only be matter of time before other candidates come to the same conclusion.
The party has also faced criticism for parachuting in two candidates, Alex Barros-Curtis and Torsten Bell, seemingly without any links to Wales, to the seats of Cardiff West and Swansea West respectively. Despite speculation around internal party division, the pair will almost certainly be elected.
Changing of the guard
There is unlikely to be any silver lining for the Conservative Party in this election. Currently it holds 13 seats in Wales but is only expected to return, at most, two Welsh MPs – Craig Williams in Montgomeryshire and Fay Jones in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe.
Plaid Cymru has three MPs at present, with Johnathan Edwards having served as an Independent member since 2020. Mr Edwards’ decision not to stand in the new Caerfyrddin seat will be welcome news for Plaid candidate Ann Davies, who will be hoping to sweep up his local support. However, the Labour target seat could well be won by their candidate, former DIST policy adviser, Martha O’Neil. Either way, former Secretary of State for Wales, Simon Hart, looks likely to be without a seat on July 5th.
Plaid Cymru’s long-term ambition is to break into the South Wales Valleys, but – for now – the Party will be doing well to elect four MPs. With Liz Saville Roberts in Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ben Lake in Ceredigion Preseli assumed to be safe, their final hope is the three-way marginal of Ynys Môn.
It’s a favourite piece of trivia among Welsh politicos that Ynys Môn has never failed to return its sitting MP. However, this year the polls are showing a Labour gain for Ieuan Môn Williams, although Plaid Council Leader, Llinos Medi, also has a solid chance of wresting the seat from the Conservative incumbent Virginia Crosbie.
What’s next?
Those who miss out on a seat in Westminster may be tempted to stand for the Senedd in 2026, when Wales will elect an increased number of 96 MSs. Plaid will be looking to make in-roads across the South, whilst the Conservatives will be keen to win back seats across their heartlands in rural Mid Wales if the General Election delivers the expected results. The challenge for Labour will be to convince the public it deserves their votes following the recent leadership donations row, especially when there’s no Conservative government in Westminster to blame for funding shortfalls. While they might be successful this time around, with the First Minister’s position looking increasingly precarious, Welsh Labour cannot afford to be complacent.
To hear more about our work in Wales, get in touch with Sian Jones via sian.jones@grayling.com.