Archives: Election Hub

Your New European Commission 2024-2029

By José Arroyo, Cameron Kelly, Samuel Michel & Marc Planas | Brussels, European Union

The new European Commission officially kicked off on 1 December, marking the beginning of a new chapter for European policymaking. It’s now time for Ursula von der Leyen to put her College of Commissioners to the test as they set out to implement an ambitious agenda for European competitiveness against a backdrop of geopolitical risks and fractured national political landscapes.

Discover the College of Commissioners and their top priorities for the next five year mandate with our handy guide below.

Image © European Union, 2024, CC BY 4.0

How Social Media Has Transformed Politics

| By Muhammad Shoaib | 0 Comments

In 2024 more people are online than ever before, with 64% of the global population active on social media. It’s therefore no surprise that social media has become the most successful channel for marketers in the UK. As digital users such as Gen Z become more influential spenders, and Millennials continue to hold the highest amount of disposable income, we naturally see corporate and consumer business prioritising social media in a bid to capture the attention of this powerful digital-first demographic.

Digital prioritisation has played out across an array of industries but, most notably, in the political sphere. This shift has led to the rapid evolution of various social media platforms, from X to TikTok, as spaces for political discourse. This evolution presents a plethora of new questions and challenges for businesses interacting in this space.

Political Impact on misinformation

A social-first election

Political parties have spent more money than ever before creating snappy, social-first content, with the aim of engaging younger voters. A prime example is Kamala Harris, who spent $113 million on Meta advertising alone during her 15 week campaign, and $4.5 million on talent to fuel her iconic TikTok account.

Challenges

As a result of TikTok’s growing political slant, audiences are increasingly exposed to misleading political content, including falsified AI-generated clips. Examples from the UK include fake videos of ex conservative leader Rishi Sunak making claims about how he is spending public money. Similar deceptive content went viral on the platform during the US election campaign, with phots falsely depicting Taylor Swift endorsing Donald Trump. It’s becoming more difficult than ever for users to distinguish reality from AI.

Beyond TikTok, X is another platform at the heart of the political storm. X has historically been the target of public scrutiny thanks to reductions in security measures, leading to the spread of misinformation in right-wing politics. This misinformation is aggravated by owner, Elon Musk, sharing politically fuelled posts claiming “civil war is inevitable”. X’s lack of moderation and safety measures has led many high-profile users to quit the platform altogether.

Looking Ahead

Users are active on more platforms than ever and, thanks to the rise of interest-based algorithms, they’re discovering new content every day. Wherever users go, misinformation is bound to follow, so, to influence meaningful change across the social media landscape, businesses need to understand the risk of misinformation and have measures in place to protect their brand and consumers from deepfake culture.

Politics and Algorithms

The Echo Chamber effect

We all know that social media algorithms are hyper-personalised. On TikTok we are fed new content based on what we interact with, helping TikTok fuel higher platform engagements and dwell time. However, this year, there’s been reports of X feeds being created by the platform owners with the sole purpose of pushing a political agenda. As part of this, Musk is accused of swaying votes for multiple elections across the globe, including the UKs general election – giving us an insight into the power of algorithms and the dangers of being trapped in an constant echo chamber.

On a positive note, TikTok algorithms have effectively helped to unlock echo chambers by bringing important issues to the surface. TikTok helped thousands of people, internationally, see the parliamentary debate over the revision of the Treaty of Waitangi in New Zealand halted by politicians performing a traditional haka. The video went viral, raising questions as to where indigenous communities fall into social-first politics. Breaking down echo chambers helps social media users expand their perspectives and feel connected to new communities.

Challenges

To avoid X’s echo chamber, many users have opted to switch to alternative platforms. X has experienced a clear decline, most evident in the UK, with a drop in users from 8m to 5.6m, and in the US, with users falling by a fifth. X users are looking at competitor platforms like Meta Threads and BlueSky, to broaden the variety of content they are exposed to, or alternatively to Rumble.

Though many users have headed to alternative platforms, it still raises the question – is the echo chamber effect present on alternative platforms too, and is the algorithm at risk of blurring the lines between personal views and popular content?

Looking Ahead

Platforms need to allow a range of diverse perspectives in users’ feeds so that audiences can make informed decisions when it comes to politics – and other fields. When the algorithms prioritise less prevalent voices, it increases the chances of users uncovering untouched communities. Brands and spokespeople can help tackle the issues of echo chambers by having a presence across multiple social platforms, thereby helping to diversify multiple platform feeds, and giving more users a chance to experience new content.

Politics and Partnerships

The Rise of Political Influencers

The impact of content creators and influencers on politics has reached unprecedented heights, especially within the digital sphere. Numerous elections have taken place this year and many are the first to occur since TikTok has been established. In fact, a study found that 26% of UK social media creators and 39% of US creators have been approached by political organisations to create content for elections.

The recent US election showcases just how integral influencers have become in the political agenda. Most notable examples of political collabs were seen during the US elections. On the left we saw Kamala Harris on “Call her Daddy” – a mainstream, consumer-based podcast. On the right, Donald Trump formed a partnership with Jake Paul, a YouTuber, with a huge young male fanbase. We also see the impact at a European level with Jordan Bardella, President of the National Front, showcasing just how useful his TikTok following of 1.7m was in the recent French elections.

Challenges:

When it comes to politics, trust is vital, , with 58% of people stating they ‘almost never trust politicians’ in Britain. Politicians have therefore leveraged influencers on digital platforms to retain and foster connections with audiences who are stereotypically hard to reach – from Gen Z users to niche sub-audiences who steer away from traditional media. In fact, more than two in five UK voters (43%) welcome creators posting political content – whether paid or organic – and this preference rises

Influencers are increasingly seen as more trustworthy than traditional politicians, particularly among younger audiences, due to their perceived authenticity – but, how much can a user actually trust them?

Looking ahead:

We need to be cautious of how influencer politics engages young voters. There are already concerns about the oversimplification of complex issues and the potential for misinformation so, with the increasing authority of influencers, brands and government authorities can help by sourcing influencers mindfully and with voters’ welfare in mind.

New European Commission approved: Von der Leyen II aims to boost EU competitiveness

| By Jessica Brobald | 0 Comments

By José Arroyo, Senior Consultant | Brussels, European Union

On 27 November 2024, the European Parliament approved Ursula von der Leyen’s new 27-member European Commission, set to take office on 1 December for a five-year term. This marks a significant win for von der Leyen and her centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), as Parliament approved all proposed Commissioners – a first since 1999 – despite a contentious confirmation process.

In her speech prior to the vote, von der Leyen reaffirmed the new Commission’s focus on improving the competitiveness of Europe’s economy, with a “Competitiveness Compass” based on former ECB President Mario Draghi’s report. She said this plan will aim to close the innovation gap with the US and China, include a joint plan for decarbonisation and competitiveness, and increase Europe’s security and reduce its dependence on third countries.

Von der Leyen’s programme is ambitious and represents a shift from last mandate’s focus on the EU Green Deal, but she may face challenges in implementing it. In addition to weak governments in France and Germany and geopolitical risks such as Trump’s re-election, the Commission will have to navigate a divided Parliament in which both centrist and right-wing alliances are possible. This risks the executive being caught in the crossfire, satisfying neither and being attacked by both. The fact that von der Leyen’s “college” of Commissioners was approved by a historically thin margin is a cautionary tale.

Von der Leyen 2.0 – a shift to the right

Parliament voted with 370 votes in favour, 282 against and 36 abstentions, to approve the new Commission – a drop from von der Leyen’s 401 votes in her July re-election. The reduced support reflects a change in alliances with a clear turn to the right for the EU. Some Greens and Socialists opposed to the inclusion of far-right Commissioners like Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi and Italy’s Raffaele Fitto voted against this new Commission even after supporting von der Leyen in July. At the same time, the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), who didn’t endorse her back then, provided crucial backing, seeking greater influence through Fitto’s appointment as Executive Vice-President of this new European Commission.

This shift highlights the growing presence of right-wing groups in Parliament. While the EPP traditionally works with the Socialists (S&D) and Liberals (Renew), since the election it has increasingly turned to alliances with ECR and other conservative factions, such as the far-right Patriots for Europe, on key votes. This trend could continue and pose the risk of the Commission being caught in the crossfire between two competing blocks and failing to satisfy either. The fact that the executive was approved with the smallest share of yeses and the highest share of noes since Parliament first got a vote in 1995 is telling.

The mentioned rightwards turn is also reflected in the Commission itself. By party affiliation, the outgoing Commission had at the beginning of its mandate in 2019 10 EPP Commissioners, 9 from the S&D, 6 from Renew, 1 from the Greens and 1 from ECR. The incoming one will have 14 EPP Commissioners, 4 from S&D, 5 from Renew, from 1 ECR, 1 from the Patriots, and 2 independents.

Contentious confirmation process

The approval process for the new Commission required each Commissioner-designate to present their plans to European Parliament committees. While the hearings initially proceeded smoothly, tensions emerged on 12 November, the final day, as the six Vice-Presidents faced Parliament.

The EPP, the largest group in Parliament, withheld support for Spanish socialist Teresa Ribera’s nomination as Executive Vice-President for a Clean, Just, and Competitive Transition. They demanded she first appear before the Spanish Parliament to address her handling of recent catastrophic floods in Valencia, as she had still been Spain’s Minister for the Ecological Transition. Simultaneously, the centre-left S&D and liberal Renew groups expressed reservations about Hungarian Health and Animal Welfare Commissioner-designate Olivér Várhelyi, citing his ties to Viktor Orbán and vague responses during his hearing. The S&D also opposed Italian nominee Raffaele Fitto’s appointment as Executive Vice-President for Cohesion and Reforms due to his affiliation with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s far-right ECR.

After a week of intense bargaining with seven confirmations hanging in the balance, a deal was struck on 20 November between the EPP, S&D, and Renew to approve the remaining candidates. A “Platform Cooperation Statement” was signed, reaffirming support for von der Leyen’s Political Guidelines and committing to cooperation throughout the Parliament’s term. Compromises included stripping Várhelyi of certain health-related responsibilities and reassigning them to Belgian Commissioner Hadja Lahbib. In turn, Fitto remains Executive Vice-President and the EPP accepted Ribera with no changes to her broad portfolio.

Ultimately, the EPP emerged as the big winner of the process. It secured the approval of von der Leyen’s Commission with minimal concessions, preserving Fitto’s elevated role while gaining flexibility to form ad-hoc alliances with right-wing groups such as the ECR and Patriots for Europe. This freedom allows the EPP to bypass Renew and S&D on key votes, as it has already demonstrated since the election. This outcome provoked criticism from the Greens and some Socialists, who stated they would not be bound by the agreement signed by their Spanish leader Iratxe García.

Promises to reignite Europe’s competitiveness

Before the vote, von der Leyen outlined her team’s focus on boosting EU competitiveness over the next five years, guided by a new “Competitiveness Compass” inspired by Mario Draghi’s report warning of Europe’s economic lag behind the US and China.

Key priorities include closing the innovation gap through increasing investment in research and development, removing barriers for startups, and leading in frontier technologies with a unified tax framework. She pledged a Clean Industrial Deal within 100 days to lower energy costs and support the automotive sector’s green transition.

Von der Leyen also stressed diversifying supply chains for critical raw materials, reducing dependence on China and Russia, and expanding trade partnerships. To address the EU’s investment gap, she proposed simplifying funding mechanisms, launching a Saving and Investments Union, cutting regulatory burdens, and upskilling Europe’s workforce to enhance competitiveness.

Ambitious programme but major challenges await

Von der Leyen’s programme is clearly ambitious and represents a shift from last mandate’s focus on the EU Green Deal. While the Commission is not abandoning its decarbonisation objectives, its attention is clearly moving towards reigniting the bloc’s economic competitiveness.

However, weak governments in the EU’s biggest countries Germany and France, a likely snap German election in February, and geopolitical risks – such as Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency – could derail von der Leyen’s agenda. Furthermore, navigating a Parliament divided between centrist and right-wing alliances will require careful negotiation to prevent a stalemate.

Despite these challenges, securing the Commission’s approval without any rejections marks a significant victory for von der Leyen and the EPP, solidifying their leadership and influence for the next five years.

Image © European Union 2024 – Source : EP

What can we expect from Scotland’s budget?

| By Ayer Mehmet | 0 Comments

With the UK Budget now out of the way, all eyes will turn to the Scottish Budget, which is scheduled to be delivered on 4^th December. So, what can we expect from the Scottish Budget, how do changes to the political backdrop impact the parliamentary process for approval of the budget and what impact will the Chancellor’s announcement have?

Financial gains

First, the good news. Thanks to the uplift in the UK Budget, Scotland stands to gain (according to HM Treasury) an additional £3.4bn through the Barnett Formula – £610 million of which is earmarked for capital investment. However, although the Budget was broadly welcomed by the Scottish Government as ‘a step in the right direction,’ there are question marks over the impact of National Insurance contributions on the Scottish Budget to the tune of £500 million.

On the face of it, the UK Budget announcement will certainly give some relief to the Scottish Government and build in some short-term budgetary stability. However, the champagne corks will hardly have been flying as the impact of inflation, NI contributions and previous cutbacks will eat into the additional funding.

Additional capital spending will be particularly welcomed. The Scottish Government had all but put a halt on any new capital projects. This should at least enable some of those plans that were on the drawing board to move forward. But the backlog of need has steadily grown and it is likely that the funds available could easily be used many times over and delivery will remain slow.

Straitjacket

The Scottish Government is caught in an increasingly tight financial straitjacket due to rising labour costs and a relatively stagnant economy. From train drivers to refuse collection and college lecturers, there has been a steady stream of demands for higher wages. Some of these are ongoing and others are likely to arise in due course, though probably not to the same level as seen in recent years. The Scottish economic output in recent months has remained low, which will affect the appetite for taxes.

A cautious approach

The Scottish Government is therefore unlikely to be in a position to offer much more than a standstill budget in many areas. That has serious political implications because as a minority administration, the SNP needs the support of at least one other political party to get its budget approved. There has been much debate about which party may be able or willing to do a deal and talk of red lines. What is likely is that one or more party will support the budget in return for significant investment in key policy areas, such as social care or climate action. A deal with the Scottish Lib Dems is often talked about as the most likely outcome, but it’s not a given and the Party will be keen to come away with a significant win.

The outcome of the Scottish Budget is therefore expected to be largely a cautious one. Modest spending plans in capital spending and in some priority revenue spending areas – such as education and healthcare. But there may be scope for some small surprises depending on what, if any, budget deal is done with a smaller party. Regardless, the SNP will be keen to rebuild the public’s trust as a competent manager of the Scottish Exchequer.

How will the US election influence the CEE region?

| By Ayer Mehmet | 0 Comments

How will the US election influence the CEE region?

The outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election will resonate far beyond American borders. No matter who becomes the next president of the United States, the election outcome will have profound and complex effects on the political, economic, and cultural dynamics of Central and Eastern Europe. To explore these potential impacts, Grayling’s local public affairs teams across 10 countries in the CEE region have prepared a comprehensive overview. The report’s context was set by an editorial from our Washington team at Dutko Government Relations.

Security challenges

The stakes of the U.S. elections are naturally highest for Ukraine, given the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. If Kamala Harris wins and the Democratic majority in Congress is preserved, no significant changes in policy are expected. However, if Harris wins but both houses of Congress are controlled by Republicans, delays in assistance to Ukraine might occur. The degree of delay would be directly proportional to the number of Trump supporters in Congress. Predicting Trump’s actions is challenging. The most likely scenario involves initial attempts to initiate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, using leverage to reduce military and financial support to Ukraine. Depending on Ukraine’s resilience and the initiative of European allies, if Ukraine refuses negotiations and the EU compensates for part of the American support, Trump may reconsider his stance. A potential reduction in U.S. support might lead to a recalibration of Ukraine’s foreign policy, seeking stronger ties with European allies and other global partners.

US Military Presence (Military Personnel per Million Local Residents)

Source: Statista/US Department of Defense: Number of active duty military personnel in Europe, World Bank: Population data (gender statistics)

However, not only Ukraine, but the entire CEE region depends on the U.S., though to varying degrees. This dependency is captured by the Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity Index, a comprehensive metric developed by the Atlantic Council. This index and other indicators reveal that many countries in the region rely on the U.S. as both an economic partner and a security provider, indirectly through Germany. While there are about 600 active U.S. military personnel in the CEE region, Germany hosts the largest number of American troops—35,068 personnel. Although Pentagon officials may resist troop withdrawals, a potential Trump presidency could lead to reductions. Many countries in the region prepared for a Trump presidency by increasing their defence spendings and purchasing U.S. arms and military equipment.

US Influence Capacity (FBIC INDEX, 2020)

Source: Atlantic Council, Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity Index

Another concern is that some CEE countries, particularly Hungary, are deepening their ties with China. This could lead to challenges for either a Harris or Trump administration. Tensions with the U.S. are likely to escalate if “China hawks” gain influence within the State Department, regardless of who becomes president.

US impact on the economy

The region’s reliance on the U.S. is also reinforced through the German economy, a major U.S. trading partner, with nearly 10% of Germany’s exports going to the U.S. If Trump’s proposed protective tariffs on all foreign goods were implemented, Slovakia would be impacted most directly, as 4.5% of its exports were destined for the U.S. in 2023. Poland (3.1%) and Hungary (2.9%) also have notable levels of direct export dependency on the U.S. However, it’s important to note that a broad trade conflict would more likely affect the region indirectly, through its wider impact on the global economy. While Harris is also expected to pursue protectionist policies, her approach would likely be narrower, focusing on supporting U.S. manufacturing and reducing dependence on China.

Share of US in the export of goods

Source: Eurostat: Trade with the United States by EU Member States; Eurostat: International trade, by reporting country, total product; National Bank of Ukraine: External Trade; Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia: External Trade of Goods, EUR, 2023

Although trade balance is a lesser concern for mainstream economists, it carries significant political weight. During his first term, Donald Trump placed a strong emphasis on reducing the U.S. trade deficit and preventing other countries from “ripping off America”—suggesting that a large trade surplus could be a potential disadvantage if Trump were to win. In this regard, Germany is in the most precarious position, with a trade surplus of €85.8 billion with the United States. Most CEE countries also run trade surpluses with the U.S., with Slovakia having the largest surplus in 2023 at €4.22 billion. In contrast, Ukraine (€2.51 billion), Croatia (€480 million), and Serbia (€29 million) all have trade deficits with the US.

Trade balance of goods with the United States, 2023 (billion EUR)

Source: Eurostat: Trade with the United States by EU Member States; Eurostat: International trade, by reporting country, total product; National Bank of Ukraine: External Trade; Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia: External Trade of Goods, EUR, 2023

U.S.-CEE economic cooperations are expected to continue, especially in the energy sector. Croatia is working on expanding LNG capacity near the island of Krk, supported by the U.S. Although the project has been recently halted, Grayling expects that U.S. support for LNG will continue no matter the election outcome. One of the cornerstone initiatives of U.S.-Bulgarian cooperation is the collaboration in nuclear energy, which includes the construction of the seventh and eighth units of the Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). In Romania, an important U.S. project is the deployment of SMR nuclear reactors (expected to be completed by 2029). The project to build Poland’s first nuclear power plant, initiated by President Trump, has also gained support from Vice President Harris. Now, Poland is planning to construct its second nuclear power plant, with potential involvement from U.S. suppliers.

Conclusion

A Trump victory could weaken the region’s security through a more transactional approach to NATO and Russia. Economically, protectionist U.S. policies and potential shifts in energy and trade partnerships could create instability. Culturally, Trump’s support for nationalist, anti-migration, and anti-liberal rhetoric may further embolden right-wing movements. Ultimately, CEE countries might need to navigate a more uncertain transatlantic relationship under another Trump administration.

A Kamala Harris victory in the 2024 election would likely reinforce the U.S.’s role as a committed partner to the CEE region, particularly in matters of security, trade, and democratic governance. Politically, it would reassure CEE nations of continued U.S. support against Russian aggression and strengthen NATO’s presence. Economically, it would promote closer transatlantic ties, encourage investment in green energy, and sustain sanctions against Russia. However, Harris’s progressive stance on issues such as migration, LGBTQ+ rights, and democracy could lead to tensions with some conservative governments in CEE.

Download the report now for an in-depth look at how CEE-USA relationships shape the geopolitical landscape of the region.

Grayling Poll of Experts | How accurate was our election prediction?

| By Ayer Mehmet | 0 Comments

On June 9, 2024, Hungary held two significant elections: voters simultaneously elected members of the European Parliament and municipal representatives. The campaign season was marked by political turmoil. A paedophilia scandal in February not only led to the resignation of President Novák but also severely eroded public support for Fidesz. Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz insider and ex-husband of former Justice Minister Varga (who also resigned due to the scandal), seized the opportunity to launch a public attack against Fidesz and founded his new TISZA party.

In May, Grayling Hungary prepared an election forecast to help our clients navigate this turbulent period. Our analysis was informed by insights from the country’s leading political analysts, pollsters, and social scientists. We distributed our questionnaire to experts from across the political spectrum, ensuring diverse perspectives. The survey asked them to estimate how many seats each Hungarian political party would secure in the European Parliament, predict the outcome of the mayoral race in Budapest, and identify cities where results were expected to be particularly close. Additionally, we invited experts to elaborate on their expectations, including the potential impact of the newly established TISZA party.

Why did we prepare our forecast?

In spring 2024, there was a high level of uncertainty due to the rapid pace of political developments and the fragmentation of the opposition landscape. Another source of uncertainty was the questionable predictive power of publicly available election polls in Hungary. Before the last parliamentary elections, both government-affiliated and independent pollsters overestimated support for the joint opposition by 4 to 11 percentage points and underestimated Fidesz support by 2 to 5 percentage points, according to Gábor Tóka’s estimations published in the Social Report 2022. However, it is important to note that polling averages were relatively accurate in predicting the results of the 2019 European elections, the 2018 general elections, and, as later confirmed, the 2024 European Parliament elections. Given these dynamics, we believed it would be valuable to survey experts on their expectations, as they can draw on data and insights unavailable to the public. Furthermore, our survey allowed room for experts to speculate on potential shifts in public sentiment. Most importantly, respondents were able to provide explanations for their predictions.

The proof of the pudding

In our forecast, we highlighted both the overall range of expert expectations for the distribution of MEP seats and the median predictions for each party. The expert narratives, as well as Grayling’s local insights, emphasized the significance of Péter Magyar and suggested that the TISZA party could fundamentally reshape the Hungarian party system. However, the experts slightly underestimated the magnitude of the political shift caused by TISZA’s emergence. While the median expectation was 10 seats for Fidesz and 6 seats for TISZA, both parties exceeded these predictions by winning an additional MEP seat each. In contrast, the DK-MSZP-Dialogue alliance secured only 2 MEP seats, falling short of the 3 seats expected by the experts. Consistent with the forecast, the far-right Our Homeland party gained one MEP seat, while Momentum, Jobbik, and the Green LMP all failed to return to the European Parliament. Many experts also predicted that the satirical Dog Party would win its first EP seat, but it fell short with only 2.6% of the vote.

Grayling Poll of Experts forecast and the results of the European elections

*DK, MSZP and Dialogue run together, but only DK gained MEP seats as a result of the alliance’s poor electoral performance.

We also compared the median forecast of experts surveyed by Grayling to the expected distribution of Hungarian MEP seats based on the final publicly available polls from various Hungarian research institutes. Like our median forecast, most polls underestimated the number of EP seats TISZA would secure. On average, predictions based on public opinion research were closer to Fidesz’s actual results than our experts’ median forecast.

Grayling’s May forecast proved to be as accurate as predictions from Medián Institute’s early June poll, as well as Századvég, Társadalomkutató’s May polls, and Iránytű’s April poll, with all forecasts deviating from the actual results by 4 seats. The least accurate poll was Republikon’s from late April, while 21 Research Center’s innovative “last minute” poll perfectly predicted the MEP seat distribution. Other polls released in late May or early June were also slightly more accurate than the median forecast of our expert survey.

Predicted distribution of Hungarian MEP seats

*Hungarian pollsters’ publicly available researches before the European election.

Projection is based on share of respondents who planned to vote in a given poll. Date is the middle of data collection.

Source: Vox Populi / Gábor Tóka, 21 Research Center

Drama in Budapest, fog in the countryside

We also evaluated the surveyed experts’ expectations regarding the municipal elections. Gergely Karácsony, the government-critical mayor of Budapest, was re-elected by a narrow margin of only 293 votes, following three recounts. Out of 14 responses, 11 experts accurately predicted this outcome, while 3 opted for his third-party challenger, Dávid Vitézy. Notably, two analysts who expected Vitézy to win correctly predicted that the governing Fidesz’s candidate, Alexandra Szentkirályi would withdraw from the race.

In the countryside, the majority of experts anticipated tight races in rural cities such as Győr, Eger, Szolnok, and Nyíregyháza. However, the races in Miskolc, Tatabánya, and Hódmezővásárhely turned out to be less competitive than many had expected. There are several, not necessarily mutually exclusive reasons why there was a high level of uncertainty regarding the municipal elections. First, the attention of political media is overly focused on Budapest, and local media significantly weakened in Hungary. Second, there is a lack of publicly available, reliable, local quality polls. Third, in many cases, the race was hard to oversee, as new political fronts opened in some rural towns (and also Budapest districts), where both the opposition and the government side was divided.

Vantage Point Podcast: Anne Robinson and Nicky Morgan

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Anne Robinson and Nicky Morgan podcast episode

Nicky Morgan and Anne Robinson on the advantage of taking three daily newspapers, and how a pause can electrify political debate

In Nicky Morgan’s latest episode as host of the Vantage Point political podcast by Grayling, she sits down with journalist and broadcaster Anne Robinson.

Known worldwide for her acerbic wit, Anne famously hosted The Weakest Link in the UK and the US and was the first ever woman to regularly edit a national newspaper, the Daily Mirror.

Looking back on Anne’s career to date, the discussion takes in a bumper election year, the shifting nature of political coverage and memories of covering three Thatcher elections.

You can listen to the full episode on all major podcast platforms including Spotify.

Conservative Party Conference 2024: “Tell us all today if you know the way to blue”

| By Ayer Mehmet | 0 Comments

Conservative Party Conference speaker on stage in front of audience

After a busy few days in his hometown for Conservative Party Conference, Grayling’s Marcus Boyle provides an insight into the mood of the party, the state of the leadership race, and what could be next for the Conservatives.

Going into Conservative Party Conference, there was an expectation amongst many that it would resemble a wake as the party licks its wounds following the mauling it suffered at the General Election.

A Surprising Mood Shift: Optimism in Birmingham

The mood on the ground in Birmingham, however, was cautiously upbeat and optimistic. Less than three months into a new Labour government, engulfed by a donations scandal and internal spats about policy and personnel, it felt as though party activists were relieved that the weight of governing, and the scrutiny and accountability that comes with it, had been lifted from weary shoulders.

Now out of government, and with a much-reduced parliamentary party, there were notably fewer MPs and businesses in attendance. Instead, party activists were front and centre. There appeared to be a palpable sense of excitement amongst the party faithful at the chance to choose a new leader and chart a new course, which is perhaps unsurprising given the coronations and foregone conclusions that have characterised recent leadership contests. Given the bumpy start for the new No. 10 team after several missteps, Conservative Party Conference seemed to reflect a party daring to dream that we may even be heading for a one-term Labour Government. Although there’s a long way to go until 2029, the party is considering this leadership contest as an interview process for not only the next party leader, but for a potential Prime Minister too. Not so sure? Just look at 2019…

It is an often-forgotten fact that, in the 2005 leadership contest, David Cameron went into Party Conference with public endorsements from just 14 MPs. Following an assured keynote speech without notes, and a series of successful engagements, Cameron left with triple the number of backers – and we all know how that ended.

Leadership Contenders: Who’s Rising and Who’s Falling?

In a similar vein to Cameron, James Cleverly is widely seen to have exceeded expectations this time around and has emerged as the dark horse in the leadership race. Cleverly’s pitch seemed focused on expanding the reach of the Conservatives to tentative centre-right voters, not just on the members already in the Conference Hall. He struck an optimistic tone throughout Party Conference as he urged the party to “be more normal” in his keynote speech, which received the longest standing ovation of all four contenders. Although Cleverly earned praise from the commentariat and saw his odds surge amongst the bookmakers, it remains to be seen whether Tory MPs and members will opt for Cleverly’s more moderate vision for the future of the party.

If Party Conferences can make a candidate’s fortunes, they can also break them. Badenoch entered Conference as one of the leadership contest’s frontrunners. At Conference, she offered her familiar diagnosis of the Conservatives’ woes, calling for the “rewiring, rebooting, and reprogramming” of the British state and its institutions, amidst familiar attacks on socialism, net zero, and identity politics. However, Badenoch also made several controversial comments, from calling for tens of thousands of civil servants to be imprisoned to claiming that maternity pay is too high. Whilst her calls for a return to traditional conservative principles and a radical overhaul of the British state played well with the party grassroots, Tory MPs are said to be worried about her appeal to the wider electorate amidst a series of gaffes and controversies – and it is they who are the gatekeepers to the final round of the contest.

Like Badenoch, Robert Jenrick was not immune from controversy after claiming that the SAS were killing, not capturing, terrorists because of fears that the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) would set them free. However, Jenrick delivered a largely assured string of appearances at Conference as he sought to pitch himself as the candidate of the party’s right wing. He offered plenty of red meat to the party grassroots, issuing a series of pledges to leave the ECHR, cap migration, cut foreign aid, and boost defence spending. He offered perhaps the most radical vision for the future of the party, channeling Blair’s New Labour strategy with his promise to establish “nothing less than a New Conservative Party”. Jenrick largely avoided any serious gaffes, and if his aim was to avoid any pitfalls that could jeopardise his status as the frontrunner in the race, he can generally be satisfied with how his Conference went.

An outsider in the race prior to Conference, Tom Tugendhat needed a Cameron-esque standout moment to inject some momentum into his leadership bid. However, not even his innovative Tugend-Tan merch was sufficient to give lift-off to the MP for Tonbridge’s campaign. Throughout Conference, Tugendhat drew on his military experience to pitch himself as a party “leader, not manager”, and he made it through without any major gaffes. However, his lack of a standout moment, and the fact he already sits at the back of the pack with regards to MP endorsements, mean it is unlikely he will make it to the final two unless anything changes in the week leading up to the next MPs’ ballot. Tugendhat continued his tack to the Right with pledges to cap migration and reform ECHR, though this feels like a crowded space, with more established rivals such as Jenrick and Badenoch already having staked their claim to this territory. Despite this, Tugendhat cemented his status as a senior and experienced figure within the party, and one who is set to continue playing a prominent role in its senior echelons for years to come.

Challenges Ahead: Rebuilding the Party for 2029

On the final day of Conference, all four leadership candidates appeared together on the main stage, bringing to a close a Party Conference that was largely a tame affair when compared to the psychodrama and vitriol that has plagued the Conservative parliamentary party in recent years.

Whoever wins the leadership contest, the new party leader faces a mammoth task. How will they simultaneously win back Reform and Liberal Democrat voters, whilst attracting younger voters? How will they heal internal party rifts in order to avoid the fates of so many of their predecessors? How will they revive CCHQ as a campaign machine against the backdrop of dwindling donations and a shrinking membership?

Tory MPs will whittle down the pack to just two candidates on 9-10th October, with party members choosing their leader between 15th and 31st October. Although Party Conference was a big opportunity for contenders to set out their stalls, there’s still all to play for in what is perhaps the most open-ended Conservative leadership contest for some time. If there’s anything we have learnt from the leadership drama that has engulfed the Conservatives over the past few years, it’s that a week is a long time in politics.

Labour Conference 2024: Starmer asks for patience

| By Ayer Mehmet | 0 Comments

Outside the Labour Conference 2024 Entrance

Despite jubilant singalongs in the bars of Liverpool to Keir Mather MP playing Chappell Roan, or Oliver Coppard’s playlist of Sheffield’s greatest hits, the mood on the conference floor was far from Hot To Go (for those over 35, that is a Chappell Roan reference).

Conference tension

After 14 years in opposition, the party is still adjusting to the machinery of government. Amidst briefings against Starmer’s top team, scrutiny on donations, and the winter fuel allowance fallout, the party leadership urgently needed to take control of the conference mood to inject enthusiasm and confidence in this Government’s direction.

The day after conference, however, the media still isn’t finished with stories around donations, and with the Budget and Spending Review around the corner, there lacked a major policy announcement that may have changed the mood music.

A Long Term Strategy

That lack of major policy announcement was quite deliberate. While the electorate were treated to a flurry of announcements in the Government’s first weeks – think 1.5 million homes targets, planning and onshore wind overhaul, GB energy launch, junior doctor’s pay deal – Number 10 wants to move towards a mission led rather than announcement driven approach to governing.

What do the 200 odd newbie MPs think? Behind the scenes of the somewhat ‘green’ Parliamentary party there is some frustration – with new MPs worried about what they see as a failure to explain the Government’s strategic direction and to shut down unhelpful stories quickly.

Looking ahead: Labour’s next steps

It wasn’t all doom and gloom. It was the party’s best attended conference to date, and across fringes, there were positive noises from industry regarding the stability that has returned to policy delivery and commitments to long-term strategy bringing the investor confidence so sought after by Number 11’s growth mission.

To shore up this stability, ministers and MPs alike stuck steadfast to key messages and top lines. As a result, businesses are struggling to break through the headlines and get clear answers to more granular policy challenges. For some attendees, Business Day also didn’t bring the clarity they hoped for, owing to disappointment at minimal ministerial engagement during the event. Despite very positive reviews of its approach prior to the election, the Government needs to be careful not to be seen to be going backwards in its approach to business engagement.

Despite these challenges, Starmer’s ask of membership and industry at conference was clear – be patient with me as I make the tough decisions needed to course correct 14 years of Conservative government. But with so many unforced errors in less than 40 days sitting time, there remains concern amongst MPs and the wider membership.

What next? To steal a nautical reference from Wes Streeting, all eyes now fix on the October budget to blow some wind in Labour’s sails.

To speak to our Public Affairs team, please contact Alan Boyd-Hall, Head of Public Affairs: alan.boyd-hall@grayling.com

New European Commission team unveiled, competitiveness at the forefront

| By Jessica Brobald | 0 Comments

By Jose Arroyo, Grayling Brussels

On 17 September 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented her new team of European Commissioners, that will lead the European Union until 2029, pending parliamentary approval. As already hinted in recent months, competitiveness will be the guiding principle of the new EU executive, following the recommendations of former European Central Bank president Draghi, who in his report painted a stark picture of Europe’s economy and proposed solutions to reignite it.

The incumbent President has decided to surround herself with six Executive Vice-Presidents, with the main heavyweights being newcomers French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, in charge of industrial policy and the EU Single Market and Spanish Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera, nominated to oversee the green transition and to be the bloc’s competition watchdog. Each of the 26 commissioners and vice-presidents will now have to face confirmation hearings at the European Parliament where they will have to prove to MEPs that they’re the right person for the job.

Von der Leyen 2.0

A little over three months after Europeans went to the polls to elect the European Parliament for the next five years, recently re-elected Commission President von der Leyen presented the 26 members of her new executive. She becomes the fourth Commission president to serve a second term in the EU’s history. EU member state governments had gradually nominated their candidates throughout the summer, with each country getting a Commissioner role and Germany having the most influential one with von der Leyen as Commission President.

There were some tensions as von der Leyen pushed for gender balanced team, using her power to assign portfolios as the lever. However, the horse trading was not limited to gender but also personalities. Only 24 hours before the nominees’ official unveiling was expected, French incumbent Commissioner (and noted von der Leyen critic) Thierry Breton unexpectedly resigned, publicly accusing her of going behind his back to ask President Macron for a new French candidate to replace him. A younger figure in the form of Stéphane Séjourné (Foreign Minister and former MEP) subsequently took France’s spot in the new Commission.

The new executive was unveiled on 17 September. Von der Leyen strove to strike a balance between male and female commissioners, northern, southern, western and eastern countries, and between political parties. However, her own centre-right political party EPP has an increased presence in it, with 15 members out of 27.

Five Executive Vice-Presidents (EVP) and one Vice-President have been appointed who will oversee the work of ‘regular’ Commissioners. These are:

Stéphane Séjourné (Renew, France), EVP for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy
Teresa Ribera (S&D, Spain) EVP for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition
Henna Virkkunen (EPP, Finland), EVP for Tech-Sovereignty, Security and Democracy
Raffaele Fitto (ECR, Italy), EVP for Cohesion and Reforms
Roxana Mînzatu (S&D, Romania), EVP for People, Skills and Preparedness
Kaja Kallas (Renew, Estonia), High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President

President von der Leyen assigned them a series of objectives in “mission letters”, highlighting what she wants them to achieve in the next five years. Ribera, Spain’s incumbent Ecological Transition Minister will continue the EU’s work on decarbonising the economy, and, together with Séjourné, is expected to be two of the main players are in charge of delivering a ‘Clean Industrial Deal’ in the first 100 days of the mandate. This new initiative, announced by von der Leyen earlier this year, will aim to ensure that European industry can decarbonise without losing its competitive edge. On top of this, Ribera will succeed Margrethe Vestager as the EU’s competition chief. She will have to strike a balance between preventing anticompetitive mergers and allowing EU companies to grow and be able to challenge US and Chinese giants. Séjourné, outgoing French Foreign Minister, will oversee the EU’s industrial policy, with a focus on improving the EU’s competitiveness. The presentation of an Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act and of a European Competitiveness Fund, both aimed at ensuring European industrial leadership, will be among his main projects.

Getting techy and business friendly

Among the other 24 nominations, it’s worth noting the priorities assigned to Finland’s Henna Virkkunen, the new EVP for Tech Sovereignty, Security and Democracy. This portfolio reflects the EU’s increasing concern about excessive reliance on third countries for key technologies. In another first, long-standing Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis has been named Commissioner for Implementation and Simplification (on top of Commissioner for the Economy and Productivity), being tasked with simplifying the EU’s legislation and reducing administrative and reporting burdens placed on companies.

Towards European competitiveness

The announcements this week reveal a European bloc that is trying to address the long-term competitiveness issues that its economy is facing. The report put together by former ECB President Mario Draghi and presented earlier this month, sounded the alarm bell on the state of the EU’s industry and called for massive investments to ensure the Union can keep up with the Chinese and American giants. He proposed several solutions, including linking the decarbonisation drive with a push for a competitive industry, boosting Europe’s security and reducing dependence on foreign powers for key technologies, and closing the innovation gap with the US and China.

Von der Leyen has largely taken Draghi’s advice on board in her new team, with the push for a greener economy, a trademark of the previous term, being coupled with more support for European businesses, investment promises and commitments to reducing administrative burdens. Her new team will largely be judged in 2029 on whether they were able to ensure European economic growth while achieving the ambitious environmental targets set during the previous mandate.

Next stop: parliamentary grilling

The next couple of months will determine if the announced line up is in fact the final one. The Commissioners-designate will attend confirmation hearings at the different committees of the European Parliament following which, the European Parliament will vote to give its consent on the appointments.

Ribera will have to face the Environment Committee (ENVI), Séjourné the Internal Market (IMCO) one, and so on. Committees will then vote on their candidacy. Historically, the Parliament flexed its muscles and declined to give its consent to a couple of candidates: in 2019, the EP rejected France, Hungary, and Romania’s first picks. This time around, the Hungarian candidate is expected to be in the firing line, given his links with Russia-friendly PM Viktor Orban, his perceived disdain for the European Parliament (he once called MEPs “idiots”), and his lack of experience in the portfolio of health and animal welfare, to which he’s been nominated. If any Commissioner-designate is rejected, they will likely have to withdraw their candidacy, and a new candidate will have to be put forward.

Once the parliamentary hearings are over and the 26 Commissioners-designate have been approved by the respective committees, the proposed European Commission as a whole will face a confirmation vote in the EP Plenary. The back-and-forth in the committees can delay the official swearing-in date of the new Commission from 1 November, to either 1 December or even 1 January 2025.

Davey’s Dozens: The five Lib Dems to watch in this Parliament

| By Ayer Mehmet | 0 Comments

Wendy Chamberlain belting out an ‘Ode to Liz Truss’ at Glee Club perfectly encapsulated this year’s Lib Dem Conference. To a packed room of die-hard members, horrified first-time attendees (including your author) and a large pack of lobby journalists, the Lib Dems’ Chief Whip asked the mostly cheering audience to Lettuce Be…

So, lettuce be honest – the mood throughout Conference was jubilant. Many of the party’s new MPs were clearly revelling in the spotlight after winning the truss-t (I’m sorry) of their constituents in dozens of former Conservative seats. The dramatic change in electoral fortunes saw a bumper turnout in Brighton of members, national journalists and business representatives – with many of the latter attending their first Lib Dem Conference. Indeed, some attendees were even observed circling events asking anyone dressed smartly if they were a new MP.

The Lib Dems deployed a ruthlessly efficient and effective election campaign, targeting seats instead of votes. Candidates focussed on just a few core policy issues which successfully tapped into the public’s exhaustion with the Conservative Government – specifically health and social care, and sewage. But now, despite returning a record number of MPs, the party faces some fundamental questions on its future direction.

How will it maximise its new cohort of MPs? How will it shift from attacking the Conservatives? What sort of opposition will it present to Labour? What other policy issues will it focus on? Will the leadership finally give the membership what it wants and campaign more vocally on the UK’s relationship with the EU?

All the while, it will still have to consolidate the 59 seats it took from the Conservatives – and target even more. Next May’s local elections will be the first true test of its response, as all 21 county councils are up for grabs.

Sir Ed Davey sought to address some of these questions during his address to conference. He urged his party to “finish the job” of consigning the Conservatives to the history books, and suggested his party will be “careful scrutineers” of the Labour Government. He also received rapturous applause for urging Sir Keir Starmer to be more ambitious on Europe – perhaps a sign of things to come.

All of a sudden, public affairs teams will be considering how they engage with the largest third party in over 100 years. Navigating its various quirks – like its truly democratic and complex policy making process – and engaging a brand-new team of spokespeople will require a well-considered and targeted strategy.

To help you out, we’ve picked out five Lib Dems to watch out for, including key players, policy experts and future stars…

Wendy Chamberlain, MP for North East Fife and Chief Whip

Karaoke talents aside, Chamberlain has steadily risen up the ranks of the party since her election in 2019. From patrolling the streets of Fife to keeping Lib Dem MPs in check – Chamberlain served in the police force for over a decade before entering politics. She joined the Liberal Democrats in the aftermath of the 2015 UK General Election, at the party’s lowest ebb. Fast forward nine years, and she comfortably defended her seat with an increased majority in 2024. She is one of the Liberal Democrats’ trusted media performers and is likely to be one of the party’s public faces in the new term. She also plays the Scottish traditional sport of shinty, enjoying a game with Ed Davey on the campaign trail in one of his tamer election stunts!

Calum Miller, MP for Bicester and Woodstock and Foreign Affairs Spokesperson

The race for Bicester and Woodstock came down to two former colleagues. Former adviser to Nick Clegg and Liberal Democrat candidate, Miller narrowly edged Conservative Rupert Harrison, a former adviser to Chancellor George Osborne. After leaving Government, Miller held a series of senior civil service roles, before joining Oxford University as a senior fellow. Miller is trusted and respected by the Lib Dem leadership, not least for his rare experience in government. He was rewarded with the Foreign Affairs brief in this week’s reshuffle.

Helen Morgan, MP for North Shropshire and Health Spokesperson

Morgan shot into the national spotlight for, quite literally, bursting Boris’ bubble in December 2021. She overturned a historic majority of almost 23,000 votes from the Conservatives in the North Shropshire by-election and was an early pioneer of the Lib Dems’ election victory stunts. Her profile has steadily risen since, and she was a regular representative on national media during the 2024 election campaign. This week she was appointed Health spokesperson – a hugely important role in one of the party’s core policy areas and a major show of trust from the leadership.

Josh Babarinde OBE, MP for Eastbourne and Justice Spokesperson

Is there anything Josh Babarinde can’t do? Create a leading social enterprise, check. Forbes 30 under 30, check. Awarded an OBE for services to criminal justice, check. In July, he won back his home town seat of Eastbourne for the party from the Conservatives (and his former primary school teacher!). For the past two years, Babarinde has helped lead the Lib Dem campaign to tackle sewage spills, appearing regularly on national and regional media. He is also to blame for pushing Ed Davey off a different paddleboard at last year’s Conference! Josh is perhaps already a star in Lib Dem circles. But at just 31, he represents the party’s next generation, and is certainly one to watch as a national figure.

Baroness Pidgeon MBE, Liberal Democrat Peer

Caroline Pidgeon is no stranger to front-line politics. She was first elected as a Liberal Democrat councillor in the 1998 local election, and stood down as a London Assembly Member in 2024. Pidgeon is a true transport policy expert, having chaired the London Assembly’s Transport Committee and led multiple campaigns, including to make the Elizabeth Line level boarding. On the day of this year’s election, she was appointed to the House of Lords, and will be an important figure on all issues London and transport.

If you have any questions about engaging with the Liberal Democrats, please contact Alexis King: alexis.king@grayling.com

Draghi Report: Another blueprint to restore the EU’s competitiveness

| By Jessica Brobald | 0 Comments

On 9 September, Mario Draghi unveiled his long-anticipated report ‘The Future of European Competitiveness – A Competitive Strategy for Europe’. Originally expected in June, the 400-page study provides a comprehensive assessment of the state of the EU economy.

Draghi’s analysis presents a stark outlook, noting a steady decline in productivity over the last 20 years. He warns that the EU is falling behind global competitors, particularly the United States and China, due to its failure to fully embrace innovation and match rivals in areas like technology and industry.

To address these challenges, Draghi calls for decisive action. He recommends refocusing efforts on innovation, decarbonisation, and industrial security, backed by an annual investment of €800 Billion – 5% of the EU’s GDP – in sectors such as deep technology, defence, and critical minerals. He also stresses the importance of reducing over-reliance on global supply chains and adopting a pragmatic trade policy.

While most political groups and industry leaders have welcomed his proposals, some stakeholders remain sceptical, citing a disproportionate focus on competitiveness. The report’s long-term impact, however, will only become clear over the course of the next EU Commission mandate.

An instruction manual to fix the EU

In his report, Draghi identifies several priority areas that he considers are key to restoring the EU’s competitiveness:

Innovation: Draghi argues that Europe lags in productivity due to slow digital adoption and low innovation. He calls for a stronger innovation ecosystem, better commercialisation, and more investment in AI and quantum computing.
Decarbonisation: Draghi states that high energy prices, worsened by the loss of Russian gas, threaten competitiveness. The report urges accelerated decarbonisation and investments in clean energy infrastructure.
Geopolitical challenges: the report highlights the need to reduce reliance on external resources. Draghi believes Europe must strengthen defence and invest in clean tech and critical minerals.
Protecting Europe’s manufacturing capacities: a new EU industrial strategy should balance competition and autonomy, integrate markets, streamline regulation, and enhance coordination across EU states.
Social inclusion: Draghi highlights the importance of sharing growth benefits, with a focus on upskilling workers for the green and digital transitions.

Beyond this general assessment, the report dives deep into ten sectoral policies: energy, critical raw materials, digitalisation & advanced technologies, high-speed/capacity broadband networks, computing & AI, semiconductors, energy-intensive industries, clean technologies, automotive, defence, space, pharma and transport. For each, Draghi offers an assessment of strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities. He also formulates specific recommendations such as facilitating telecoms mergers by assessing deals on an EU level or reviewing Fit for 55 legislation such as the 2035 Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) ban.

The former Italian Prime Minister also shares his perspective and advice on how to tackle several horizontal issues:

To accelerate innovation, Europe must boost R&I to sustain competitiveness, focusing on emerging technologies and addressing demographic challenges.
To close the skills gap, education systems need to adapt, with an emphasis on digital, green, and foundational skills. Lifelong learning is seen as crucial to meet the needs of a changing labour market. Manufacturing workers will need to acquire advanced skills to operate the technologies used today.
Public and private investment will be key to support the twin transitions; completing the Capital Markets Union is essential to unlock investment.
Competition policy should evolve to address challenges from digital markets and global competitors, promoting both innovation and business scale.
EU governance needs to be further simplified to reduce regulatory burdens and enhance competitiveness.

The report also includes some bold suggestions, including moving towards regular joint borrowing from Member States to fund strategic investments, revamping EU competition rules, extending qualified majority voting to more areas, as well as prioritising trade agreements and direct investment with resource-rich countries.

What’s next?

Draghi’s report stands as a significant testament to one of Europe’s most renowned technocrats. While non-binding, it provides an unvarnished assessment of Europe’s economic landscape, offering a practical set of tools aimed at transforming the bloc in an increasingly competitive global environment.

Reactions to the report have been broadly positive. Industry organisations have welcomed proposals to reduce the regulatory burden and simplify reporting obligations stemming from the EU. The European Parliament’s main political groups, including the EPP (centre-right), Renew Europe (liberal), and the Socialist & Democrats (centre-left), have praised Draghi’s message as a “wake-up call for Europe” and urged policymakers to “rise to the challenges of our time” by implementing the proposed measures.

However, environmental NGOs such as Climate Action Network (CAN) and BirdLife Europe have criticised the report for its strong focus on industrial competitiveness, arguing that it portrays environmental protections as obstacles to economic growth.

Despite the varied responses, the report’s true impact is still uncertain. Draghi initially planned to deliver the report before the European elections and ahead of President Von der Leyen’s political guidelines for the next term. With the new Commission now in place, it remains unclear how much influence the report will have on legislative work over the next five years. Some of its more ambitious proposals – such as new joint borrowing – have already been rejected by Germany and the Netherlands, who advocate instead for unlocking private funding through greater integration of capital markets.

It will be up to Ursula von der Leyen to build consensus amongst decision-makers to ensure at least some of these recommendations materialise.