Archives: Election Hub

Scotland’s political landscape changed on July 4^th.

The SNP, who had won every national election since 2011, were humbled across the urban Central Belt, with a resurgent Scottish Labour claiming 37 of Scotland’s 57 seats, leaving the SNP clinging on narrowly to a few strongholds and banished to the margins of the House of Commons from being the third largest party.

At the SNP’s recent conference, First Minister John Swinney and Westminster leader Stephen Flynn both faced up to the result, arguing the party could not make excuses and must change its approach.

Swinney specifically committed to “campaigning on an independence platform deeply intertwined with people’s everyday concerns” – to intertwine a domestic policy offer on areas of Scottish Government responsibility with the broader constitutional goal of Scottish independence. It remains to be seen whether this approach will resonate with the Scottish public in practice.

Labour’s Path to Power: Can They Capitalise on SNP’s Decline in 2026?

Anas Sarwar, the victorious Scottish Labour leader, meanwhile, has repeatedly stressed that the Westminster election was just the first stage of a two-stage campaign, with the ultimate aim being the 2026 Holyrood election, which could see Labour form a government in the Scottish Parliament for the first time since 2007.

Sarwar, unlike Flynn or Swinney, could take heart from the UK wide result – in addition to UK Labour’s success, a common thread across the entire election was that it allowed voters to punish incumbent political parties in each nation of the UK.

Labour’s one-word election slogan, “Change”, leaned into this sentiment clearly.

With the SNP having been in office in Scotland for seventeen years, longer than the Conservatives’ period of dominance at Westminster, will this change message resonate a second time, with Scotland due to head to the polls in eighteen months’ time. Will Keir Starmer’s message still be fresh in 2026 and record strong enough to help Sarwar become First Minister?

Data from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey suggests that it might, with the Scottish public specifically dissatisfied with the Scottish Government’s current performance on devolved issues.

On a range of indicators, the electorate’s belief in the Scottish Government itself has declined significantly since 2019, an important factor considering the 2021 Holyrood election took place when Covid-19 vaccine deployment was boosting incumbent governments across the globe.

Trust in the Scottish Government has declined to 47%, its lowest level since data collection began in 1999. Satisfaction with the performance of the NHS in Scotland, a key devolved responsibility, has also fallen dramatically in the past five years, with 52% of the public expressing dissatisfaction. On the economy, the figures are even more dramatic, with 83% of the Scottish population believing their standard of living had declined in the last 12 months, the highest figures yet recorded.

Fragmented Politics: What Scotland’s New Political Landscape Means for Labour’s Holyrood Ambitions

However, while Labour won a resounding victory in terms of seats, both vote share and the distribution of those votes within particular seats point to a closer and more uncertain contest in 2026.

Labour’s vote share in Scotland at the election, of 35.3%, is a similar figure to their results at the Holyrood election of 2003, where Labour defeated an SNP led by John Swinney, but won 50 seats – well short of the 65 MSPs needed for a majority – and required a coalition with the Scottish Liberal Democrats to govern. While Labour’s seat total at Westminster is undeniably impressive, on vote share they are not close to emulating the SNP’s dominant performances throughout the last decade.

Additionally, beyond the SNP-Labour battle, the General Election performances of the Scottish Green Party, Liberal Democrats and even Reform UK point to a more fractious and fragmented Scottish Parliament in the coming term, with those parties posing a much more significant challenge to both Labour and the SNP under Holyrood’s more proportional voting system.

Moreover, while some evidence shows that some pro-independence voters crossed over to vote for Labour in 2024, it is unclear whether this will be a permanent shift, or a temporary swing in the context of a UK-wide election where Labour sought to replace the Conservatives at a UK-wide level.

The First Minister’s announcements this week in the Scottish Parliament, confirming severe budget cuts for which he pinned blame on the UK Government, and pledging to “do less, better” in the Scottish Government’s legislative programme, illustrated the depth of the challenge ahead in winning back the key voters who created the sweeping victories the SNP enjoyed under Nicola Sturgeon. Time is running for the SNP to prove it’s still Scotland’s best option.

If you would like to receive Grayling Scotland’s full analysis of the Scottish Government’s Programme for Government, please contact the Public Affairs team at ScotlandTeam@grayling.com.

With Labour’s first full week complete, our Public Affairs team has taken a deep dive into policy priorities ahead of the King’s Speech this week. We’ve also looked at key moments for the next few months, how the election went down in the devolved nations and set out our top tips on cutting through the noise of a new Parliament.

One of the most remarkable features of our democracy is that we change governments overnight. In the United States, the transition between presidencies takes a couple of months, in the UK it takes a few hours. It is the moment when civil service impartiality comes into play – officials whose job it was to follow the instructions of one government, demonstrate their impartiality by transferring their allegiance to the new administration without missing a beat. The new Prime Minister takes charge of the security of our nation and gets on with things, foreign and domestic.

The UK’s Unique Government Changeover

Last Thursday Rishi Sunak woke up as Prime Minister and within 24 hours Sir Keir Starmer was in the job. Not unexpectedly his first days in the role have been without much fanfare.

In the early hours of Friday morning, speaking to campaign workers, Starmer allowed himself a smile which hinted at his triumph. Then he was on to the serious work of leading the country.

The Early Days of Starmer’s Premiership

Starmer quickly named his Cabinet (the most diverse in history) and signalled seriousness of intent by holding a Cabinet meeting on Saturday – I can’t recall the last time this happened in peacetime – immediately followed by a press conference – again very unusual.  Over the next couple of days, the entire Ministerial team was put in place and Starmer himself undertook a 24-hour tour of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales and then met with the elected metro mayors on his return to Downing Street.

As Starmer was emphasising that he was the Prime Minister for the entire country whilst also respecting devolution, his Cabinet got to work. The Home Secretary scrapped the Rwanda scheme; the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced significant changes to the planning system designed to drive growth; the Health Secretary met with representatives of junior doctors in an effort to resolve their long-running industrial dispute; and the Foreign Secretary made clear that the new Government wished to strengthen the UK’s relationship with the EU. All by Tuesday.

Global Engagement: Opportunities for Leadership

On Wednesday Starmer went to the NATO heads of government summit in Washington DC. With France’s President Macron weakened following the legislative elections, Germany’s Chancellor Scholz under pressure, and so much uncertainty about the US presidency, there is space here for Starmer to establish himself as a global leader and strengthen Britain’s position in the world.

It has been quite a week. It is very early days, but all the indications are that Starmer’s government is determined to deliver the change agenda it promised in the election campaign.

In office, Labour has continued to emphasise its desire to collaborate with business to deliver its priorities. It is very much open for business and Grayling can help you engage effectively with the key decision makers and policy influencers. Contact our Government and Public Affairs team today to discover how we can help you navigate this dynamic political landscape and achieve your objectives.

Following yesterday’s UK General Election, it is now confirmed that the Labour Party will form a majority Government. As predicted by recent polling, this represents a landmark victory for Labour, with Sir Keir Starmer only the fourth Labour Leader to take the party from Opposition to Government. At the time of writing, the Labour Party has won 411 seats – with a historic increase of 210 seats from their seat share in the last Parliament. Labour’s parliamentary dominance will now be on a similar scale to Tony Blair’s 1997 administration.

That said, the election results paint a much more complicated picture than the figures initially suggest. When looking at overall vote share, Labour has received a modest 33.9% of the vote as things stand, compared to a 43.2% Labour vote share in the landslide 1997 victory. Labour has a strong mandate to govern, but this is clouded by an uneasy sense of an electorate whose loyalties are increasingly unstable.

These 2024 General Election results perhaps most faithfully reflect a vote of dissent against the previous Conservative Government – who are currently sat with 119 seats, representing a huge loss of 249 seats. The Conservative Party are internally relieved that their ‘worst case scenario’ has not been met, and that they remain the second largest party and will form the Official Opposition. But this undoubtedly represents a disastrous result for the Conservatives, and the leadership contest to replace Rishi Sunak will commence soon.

The other story of this election was the significant role of the smaller parties, with a wide range of regional issues and voting dynamics coming to the fore. This left an inconsistent voting pattern across the country and will mean a broad representation of smaller parties in the new parliamentary term. In fact, the House of Commons will welcome the highest number of independent MPs since 1950.

The Lib Dems saw a dramatic resurgence to form the third largest party – putting a significant dent in the Conservative seat share, particularly in the South West, Surrey, and Hertfordshire. Meanwhile, the electoral impact of Reform at this election cannot be understated, taking votes away from both Labour and the Conservatives in key marginal seats. Whilst Reform have only won four seats, including Nigel Farage being elected as MP for Clacton, they received over 4 million votes, and this had wide-reaching implications on the night. This particularly impacted the Conservatives, where in Conservative-Labour marginals the Reform vote share repeatedly resulted in Labour victory, and in the former ‘red wall’ (seats gained by the Conservatives in 2019), the Tories often fell into third place behind Labour and Reform. As a result, multiple well-known figures and members of the Cabinet such as Penny Mordaunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Liz Truss all lost their seats.

The demise of the SNP must also be noted, losing 38 seats and leaving the Scottish Nationals with a disappointing total of nine seats – and in doing so, significantly bolstering Labour’s parliamentary majority with its resurgence in Scotland.

What’s next?

Looking ahead to the rest of the day, we are expecting Rishi Sunak to formally tender his resignation to King Charles III in the coming hours, before vacating Downing Street. It is thought that the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, will then proceed to appoint his Cabinet later today from Number 10.

You would be forgiven for not putting the Liberal Democrats at the centre of your political radar before Rishi Sunak’s surprise election announcement. With only 15 MPs in the last parliament – a lasting hangover of the electorate’s reaction to their coalition days – the picture leading up to the campaign wasn’t necessarily pretty viewing.

However, a combination of anti-Conservative Party sentiment, efficient tactical voting, and Ed Davey’s willingness to take on attention-grabbing stunts, means that the outlook has become decidedly rosier. The latest MRP polls indicate that the Lib Dem Party is on course to return to pre-coalition numbers, a swing which could put them as the third largest in parliament.

Talking about the post-election landscape feels premature, however, spending some time in campaign HQ put me in amongst a team with a growing sense of optimism. With the nation heading to the polls in a few days, here are my key takeaways from a week in the Lib Dem press office.

Humanity at the heart of politics

The BBC Question Time Election Special was a priority during my week with the team. This was the last major debate of the election campaign and an important juncture for us to sense check the public’s sentiment towards the leaders of the UK’s four main parties.

Cutting clippings from the papers the following morning revealed that many journalists had pegged Ed as the overall winner on the night. There were tricky questions on tuition fees and coalition, yet his ability to acknowledge past mistakes was well received.

Manning the phones and press inbox, which seemed to be permanently pinging with requests for comment and 4pm deadlines, demonstrated the need for attention to detail. But these policies also show Ed’s passions and personality, stemming in large part from his life experiences, on everything from increasing carer’s allowance to cancer specialist nurses. In a political battleground mired in his cynicism, his conviction is striking, and shows that a human face is just as important for cutting through to the electorate.

Silliness and seriousness key to strategy

It’s no secret the Lib Dems have made the most of flashy stunts over the course of the campaign and that this is a strategic decision. From building sandcastles to whizzing down slides, Ed’s campaign timetable sought to ensure people would turn the volume up on the TVs as we watched Ed liven up the day of the designated journalist tasked with following the campaign trail.

Inevitable arguments ensue about the silliness of these stunts, but they do have a purpose. Every stunt is attached to an overarching policy, be it health or sewage or the environment.

On the flip side, perhaps Ed’s most powerful moment was also his most serious. The first election broadcast showing the care for his disabled son seems to have struck a real chord, amongst not just carers, but the wider electorate. With a manifesto heavily dominated by serious issues in the NHS and our health systems, there is a place for both seriousness and silliness in this campaign.

Quiet confidence and a camp united

Overall, it seems like the general mood at HQ is one of quiet confidence. Nobody is taking anything for granted, but there’s enough evidence to suggest the Lib Dem ranks will swell considerably once all the ballots are cast. From party veterans to first-time volunteers like myself, this is very much a happy camp; especially for those who have been through the dour campaigns of 2017 and 2019.

Almost a decade on from the 2015 election wipeout, the Lib Dems hope to return to parliament as an expanded force – potentially even, as some papers are suggesting, the official opposition. Holding the incoming government to account, particularly against a backdrop of little money and big policy issues, will be the next test to establish their credentials and find common ground amongst an increasingly divided nation.

In Nicky Morgan’s latest episode as host of the Vantage Point political podcast by Grayling, she speaks with Nathalie Brack, Professor of political science at the Cevipol, Université libre de Bruxelles and Visiting Professor at the College of Europe, and Jessica Brobald, Managing Director of Grayling Brussels.

On the day after the first round of the French parliamentary elections, the panel discuss:

🔹 the impact of the EU elections and the rise of the far-right

🔹 the key players holding the top jobs

🔹 significant issues the EU Commission and Parliament will focus on.

Listen now or head to our Spotify channel to listen to other episodes in the series.

By Evie Ryan & James Watson

Campaigning is just the beginning

With voter intention polls continuing to put Labour comfortably ahead, it’s looking increasingly likely that Sir Kier Starmer and Rachel Reeves find themselves at the helm of No. 10 and HM Treasury on Friday morning.

Reeves – if successful in becoming Chancellor – has already promised a Spending Review for the autumn. By then, any summer sun will have given way to colder and darker evenings, and the novelty of any potential success at the Euros will be long-gone. It’ll be time for the hard work to begin and Labour will find itself facing tough decisions.

Spending Reviews, a familiar fixture for Whitehall are often overlooked by the private sector compared to more headline-grabbing Fiscal Statements and Budgets. They’re important indicators for the economic factors behind governments decisions, and provide a helpful tool for long-term scene setting.

Forecasting four big challenges

Supported by the Office of Budget Responsibility and delivered in the same window as the Autumn Statement, the next Spending Review will set the tone for Labour’s first years in office. There is fourfold challenge building for Reeves in what the Review is likely to show about the UK economy, how this will impact public spending, and critically, what this will mean for delivering ‘change’ in the way Labour has been describing during the campaign.

• First, public debt is the highest it’s been since the 1960s, and the tax burden also at its highest since 1948. Compounding this, Labour has consistently promised not to raise corporation tax, income tax, VAT, or increase national insurance to fund spending. The ability to raise further public monies is, therefore, significantly constrained by the current economic reality and Labour’s election campaign pledges leave very little fiscal head room to increase spending in the short-to-medium term.
• Second, to find funding to carry out even some of its less ambitious plans, a Labour Government may need to either cut spending to specific departments or apply a very ‘constructive accounting’ approach. Labour HQ has, so far, shown some willingness to take a hard line on some areas of spending, evidenced by their unwillingness to axe the two-child benefits cap but, critically, there is zero mandate for drastically slashing departmental budgets, as opposed to the then incoming Coalition Government of 2010-2015.
• Third, Labour will need to navigate new ministers chomping at the bit to ensure their departments get a piece of the ever-limited fiscal pie. The prestige of a department, even those outside of the Great Offices of State (HMT, FCDO, Home Office), is in part defined by its spending limit and ability to enact policy and this will, in turn, enable or curtail ministers’ progression around the Cabinet table.
• Finally, the new Chancellor will likely be tempted to undertake an initial 1-year review, as opposed to a comprehensive multi-year programme, to manage the noted fiscal constraints. Both approaches offer benefits and challenges. The former is recommended by the Institute for Government and would give a Labour Government room for manoeuvre in the short-term with a view to focusing on immediate priorities and balancing the books. However, this approach would curtail the medium-to-long term certainty needed for public services and the market. The latter approach would provide longer-term clarity, but could box a future Labour Government into plans that are either unachievable or require adjustment which could, in turn, impact their credibility.

In for a penny, shuffling around the pounds

Labour is already laying the groundwork to tackle challenges heading its way. Sector expertise and access to institutional capital are critical to Labour’s plans for growth and reducing the pressure on the Treasury.  A lot lies with tapping into the private sector and aiming to create the right environment to attract investment, so that government and industry together can invest in public initiatives as well as infrastructure.

Dedicated government funds and new bodies, such as GB Energy and the National Wealth Fund (NWF) are designed to crowd in investment and set the direction of travel. Importantly, business, as the co-pilot in Labour’s vehicle of ‘Change’, will be encouraged to pick up the costs of projects and programmes that sit outside the gift of the Government’s purse but will reap the dividends of growth so long as they conform to Labour’s flight plan for UK plc.

Labour has been working hard to build the relationships needed to put this approach into action. It has already stood up a Taskforce, led by the Green Finance Institute and Brookfield Asset Management, to advise on delivery of its planned £7.3bn National Wealth Fund. This fund will be expected to crowd in at least £3 from the private sector for every £1 invested by the state, with a focus on driving growth in key sectors to ‘reindustrialise’ Britain[i]. Alongside the NWF, Labour has established its British Infrastructure Council (BIC) to assemble leading finance organisations to support the drive for investment.

Both the Fund and the BIC exemplify Labour’s new era of public-private partnership and an effort to get business working for Britain and reduce demand on its coffers.

Reeves’ Global Investment Summit, due to occur within the first 100 days of a Labour Government, offers another glimpse into Labour’s plan to encourage the flow of foreign capital to UK shores. The agenda for this event remains unclear but it will likely mirror similar summits hosted by the Tory Government in recent years, which have reaped significant amounts of capital.

Factoring in the forecast  

Ultimately, the Spending Review is going to confront the new Labour Government with difficult decisions within the first few weeks of its tenure. The recent report from the Institute of Fiscal Studies is stark in laying out the scale of this challenge[1]. With the Party committed against an austere approach to spending, it is placing its future success on being able to incentivise enhanced private investment, and crucially, do this at pace.

The Party knows it can factor in reduced headroom for now, what’s less certain is its ability to encourage growth in the way it requires to give more room for the subsequent Reviews and fiscal events over the next five years.

There is clearly an opportunity for businesses of all shapes and sizes to support these plans, even without large reserves of capital. Labour is keenly aware that they don’t have all the answers to public spending and will be looking to industry to provide the sectoral insight and expertise necessary to target investment in the right areas and encourage growth.

Engagement with a Labour Government will be critical in its First 100 Days. Industry should look to the likely consultations on the NWF, GB Energy and all the other initiatives that Reeves will wish to undertake as opportunities to influence how these are shaped, and should not be missed.

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/e529148e-01b4-4fe9-af43-c8c54807c58b

[i] https://www.cityam.com/national-wealth-fund-will-help-create-650000-jobs-over-five-years-reeves-says/

Come Friday, if the polls are correct, we will see a vast redrawing of the electoral map. Where seats are retained and where they change hands will be instructive in analysing what went wrong, or right, for the campaigns and for getting an early sense of the trends that will develop over the course of the Parliament.

English seats to watch

For Labour simply to become the largest party in the House of Commons, a national swing of eight points is needed, which would see places like Chelsea & Fulham, Bournemouth East and Stevenage return Labour MPs. If Labour is on track for an outright majority, Conservative seats like Buckingham & Bletchley, Basingstoke, Great Grimsby, and Cleethorpes will need to comfortably fall into their column, with swings of some 12 points.

With the polls and commentary leaning heavily towards an enormous Labour landslide, it’s easy to forget that the 12.7 swing the party needs for a majority of just one MP would be larger than Tony Blair secured in 1997. Just a year ago, this was still seen as a major obstacle for Labour. Now it’s looking more than achievable. In large part this is due to the party regaining support that it haemorrhaged in 2019, as voters across the midlands and north rejected Jeremy Corbyn and rewarded Boris Johnson for his commitment to Brexit. If Labour wins seats in the north west, such as Burnley, Bury (south and north) and Bolton North West, then it will feel confident that the so-called “Red Wall” is being rebuilt.

The Liberal Democrats are likely to achieve around the same popular vote as the 2019 general election – 11.6 %. Five years ago, this translated to just 11 MPs, but now, thanks to a fall in support for the Conservatives in the south east and south west, better distribution of their votes, and by encouraging tactical voting, they could more than quadruple their representation in Parliament. They will be targeting seats in Conservative heartlands in the south like the seats of Justice Secretary Alex Chalk in Cheltenham and Science Secretary Michelle Donelan in Chippenham.

Nigel Farage’s return to UK politics has complicated matters significantly for the Conservatives. Farage is now likely to overturn a massive Conservative majority in Clacton, and Lee Anderson is on course to win Ashfield. Reform could pick up Great Yarmouth, Louth and Horncastle, and Basildon and Billericay all from the Conservatives. More importantly, Reform is polling second in some 125 constituencies and could see them challenge in Barnsley North, South Holland and The Deepings, Havant, and Folkestone and Hythe, splitting the right wing vote and potentially paving the way for Labour or the Liberal Democrats if they aren’t successful themselves.

What next?

Much of the focus on Thursday evening will be on the here and now, but the detail of the results will have ramifications that go beyond an immediate change in government. If the Conservatives are wiped out, they will need to pick their leader from a pool of possibly fewer than 100 MPs, which may not include leadership hopefuls like Grant Shapps and Penny Mourdant. Whoever prevails will have the daunting task of rebuilding the party so it can begin to be electorally competitive again whilst defending its right flank from, potentially, Nigel Farage MP.

For Labour, it will be looking closely at its margin of victory in target seats. A spread of very narrow victories may cause nervousness in the party as it looks for signs that it can secure at least two terms in office. The size of MPs’ majorities can also provide clues as to how they will behave in Parliament: new MPs who narrowly won may be caught between party loyalty and being an outspoken constituency champion to shore up their local support, leading to potential mid-term challenges for Starmer.

For businesses, working with so many new MPs will bring fresh opportunities and challenges. Many longstanding policy experts will no longer be in place, and the task will begin anew to identify potential advocates and detractors.

For advice and support in this new political era, get in touch with Grayling’s Head of Public Affairs, Alan Boyd-Hall.