Sustainability Archives

Sustainability in aviation: European initiatives for more environmental protection

22 June 2022 | By Franziska Koehl | 0 Comments

Air traffic is responsible for 2.8% of the global artificial CO2 emissions. If we take into account the additional nitrogen oxides and the still unexplained influence of condensation trails on radiation into and out of the atmosphere, the factor would have to be as much as 3-5 times higher. The good news is that the effect that can be achieved by altering the system is significantly greater. With initiatives, such as the outsourcing of short-haul routes to rail, Single European Sky or Destination 2050, there is a lot of momentum in the industry.

Car, bus, train or flight: a question of framework conditions and infrastructure

The decision which form of transportation is the most eco-friendly is not as easy to answer objectively as one would hope. According to the Federal Environment Agency’s statistics for 2019, a car consumes an average of 154 g of CO2 per person-kilometre, while an aeroplane with a load factor of 70 per cent comes to over 200 g for a short flight. For medium-distance journeys (e.g. between destinations within Europe), a lower consumption of 180 g per person-kilometre is estimated, and for long-distance journeys even just 91 g. If you use ground-based means of transport, you have to plan for a significant loss of time, especially for domestic connections. A good railway infrastructure can compensate for this. Prime examples are the connection from Strasbourg to Paris in 1:45 h (500 kilometres) and from Madrid to Barcelona in 2:30 h (670 kilometres). However, comfort and time savings usually prevail if the short-haul flight is a feeder to a long-haul route. Moreover, not all international airports are connected to the long-distance network, Munich being the best example. Actually, we are seeing more airlines cooperating with train services, to build a new network of connections to their hub-airports and bringing short haul flight to the track. Swiss for example is currently launching an international train link with their Swiss air-rail service, connecting Munich main station directly to Zurich airport. And there are some more exciting initiatives in Europe that I would like to touch on briefly.

Single European Sky: One Europe, One Sky

Just like national borders, airspace borders have grown historically. Since the late 1990s, the European Commission has been working on restructuring European airspace with a view to optimising traffic flows. The aim is to create Functional Airspace Blocks (FABs) and dissolve the fragmentation caused by national borders and interests. The current challenge: if you for example fly from Stockholm to Prague on a straight and thus direct route, you cross the German and Polish airspace several times. Now you have the choice between flying only in German airspace with a smaller diversion or only in Polish airspace with a larger diversion, but German air traffic control is more expensive. The most efficient, direct routes can only be used by homogenising the airspaces and the associated airspace charges. Thus, considerable savings in paraffin of up to 10 per cent and a reduction in flight times can be achieved. Only by homogenising airspace and the associated airspace charges can the most efficient, direct routes be used. Thus, considerable savings in paraffin of up to 10 per cent as well as a reduction in flight times are achievable.

Destination 2050: Ambitious goals of the European aviation sector

In line with IATA’s (International Air Transport Association) “Net-Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050” programme, the European aviation industry is also pursuing ambitious sustainability goals with the aim of achieving CO2 neutrality. By 2050, it is estimated that about 10 billion passengers will be transported worldwide per year – compared to about 4 billion before COVID. The CO2 cuts are to be achieved at European level primarily through four sets of measures:

Improvements in aircraft and engine technology – up to 37% savings
Use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) – savings of up to 34
Implementation of economic measures – savings of up to 8%
Improvements in air traffic management (ATM) and flight operations – savings of up to 6%

IATA is focusing even more on the issue of SAF and sees the potential for savings in the following areas:

– 65 % by SAF, production must increase from 100 million litres today to at least 449 billion litres in 2050 to meet demand

– 19 % by offsetting/carbon capture. The power-to-liquid (PtL) process removes CO2 from the atmosphere with the help of (green) electricity and water, which can be used for SAF production

– 13 % through new technologies, especially new aircraft and engines

– 3 % through infrastructure/operations such as Single European Sky, fuel efficiency management systems and weight reduction

Some of these measures are already being implemented today. These include reducing weight, optimising flight routes, improving flight management and further research in the area of surfaces/aerodynamics. Swiss, for example, is currently testing a sharkskin-like surface structure on its Boeing 777-300Er aircraft, which reduces frictional resistance and thus lowers fuel consumption. And passengers can already voluntarily offset their CO2 emissions through various sustainability programmes. For a general solution, however, politics is needed to set the appropriate framework conditions, which are not only based on voluntariness. And politics is also required when it comes to SAF. Both infrastructure and framework conditions for a transition, must be created in order to render the paraffin of the future competitive. As is well known, the processes in aviation are very sluggish due to the certification procedures, so corresponding approvals are needed for each aircraft type. Refuelling with SAF is currently only permitted to the tune of about 10 per cent.

A small contribution on one single flight can make a big difference when extrapolated to thousands of flights. We are extremely excited to see where the journey will take us in the coming years and how the individual issues will evolve. As a communications agency, our team at Grayling advises airlines, airport operators, air navigation service providers and other stakeholders across the aviation industry on their communications needs. From training press officers to planning crisis response strategies or developing 360-degree consumer campaigns, we support with our local expertise and global network. If you would like to discuss your organisation’s challenges in more detail, we would be delighted to support you!

Franziska Köhl, Associate Director, Grayling Germany

Fit for 55 2.0: new building blocks to support the EU’s climate ambitions

17 December 2021 | By Berith Hagvaag | 0 Comments

Grayling Brussels explores the second instalment of the Fit for 55 package put forward by the European Commission on 14 and 15 December. What are the main proposals and how will they impact business?

The Green Deal strikes back: ten days before Christmas Eve, the European Commission followed up its 12 proposals from July 2021 with 8 new initiatives and 4 communications on energy, transport, and the environment. Although the proposal are primarily revisions of existing rules, the package also contains new legislation on methane emissions in the energy sector.

As the name implies, the Fit for 55 package intends to bring the EU’s regulatory framework in line with the intermediate emissions reduction target of 55% by 2030 on the path to climate neutrality by mid-century. The targets themselves were made binding by the European Climate Law earlier this year.

What is included in the second instalment?

The legislative package will have far reaching implications for sectors throughout the EU economy., particularly on the energy and transport sectors.

Energy

By proposing the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, the European Commission makes its move to decarbonise the single largest energy consuming sector in Europe. The proposed framework sets new targets for renovating the least energy efficient buildings across the EU as well as phases out subsidies for fossil fuel powered boilers by 2027. The second major focus in the energy sector is the EU gas market, for which the Commission proposes the new Energy Package for Gas to support the uptake of decarbonised gases (including an end to long-term fossil fuel contracts by 2049) and mandatory mitigation measures in the EU Methane Regulation.

Transport

As core elements to the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) Regulation revision, the Commission is proposing new requirements for the deployment of electric vehicle charging infrastructure across the core infrastructure network. Importantly, the Commission is also looking to connect major airports with high-speed rail connections to foster multimodal travel. In addition, the Commission puts forward a revision for the Intelligent Transport Systems Directive to lay down the foundations for automated mobility and improve multimodal ticketing.

Climate

The requests the Council of the European Union to adopt a draft recommendation on the just transition, which aims to provide guidance to national governments on a fair and inclusive transition to a decarbonised economy. This would include equal access to training opportunities and support to affordable housing renovations. Furthermore, the Commission puts forward a strategy on sustainable carbon cycles, which sets a plan for carbon removal certification in the EU.

Challenges ahead

As with the July tranche, the primary challenge is to ensure that the level of climate ambition in these new rules is indeed fit for the 55% emissions reductions target for 2030 and also aligned with the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement. The earlier proposals on issues such as new Emissions Trading System (ETS) rules and sustainability targets for alternative fuels have already been subjected to intense political debates, and the situation is not going to be any different this time around. It will not be easy to reach a compromise that is both environmentally sufficient and politically feasible in all 27 Member States.

Second, as the Fit for 55 regulatory overhaul grows, it will be increasingly difficult to maintain consistency across the 20-odd initiatives. Many of the proposals are closely interlinked and need to impose mutually coherent rules to foster a successful transition to 55% emission reductions. As different files are dealt with different policymakers from various industry, environment, and transport committees and working groups, it becomes important for the stakeholders to keep track of the legislative processes.

Third, the overarching focus on cross-border energy and transport infrastructure, mainly gas pipelines and roads, are likely to cause significant headaches in the Council regarding their cross-border nature and the region-specific needs of various Member States. The pan-European projects are at the heart of delivering the European Green Deal, but differences between the Member States’ dependency on natural gas, average age of building stock, or use of travel modes are all potential sparks for heated debates between the capitals.

Combined, these legislative challenges are a source of uncertainty in the European business environment at least for the remainder of this European Parliamentary term (until Mau 2024). There is also uncertainty on the timing of the legislative procedure in the Council, as France’s EU Council Presidency (Q1-Q2 2022) will inevitably be preoccupied with the French presidential elections in the spring. At the same time, competition over the ownership of the new files between European Parliament committees and political groups will add to the unpredictability in early 2022.

Managing stakeholders’ expectations, a balancing act

The new proposals were met with mixed reviews. For instance, while the new methane mitigation initiative was commended for its binding rules on measurement and leakage detection, it was simultaneously criticised for failing to take the upstream emissions of imported gas and oil sufficiently into account. According to the Environmental Defense Fund, this means that the proposal does not cover the production emissions of around 85% of the gas consumed in the Single Market.

Similarly, the Commission was for example faulted for sending mixed signals on the future fossil fuel heating systems in buildings. On the other hand, stakeholders also praised the higher targets for electric vehicle charging infrastructure and the introduction of the Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) for the entire European building stock.

Ultimately, the policymakers will need to rely on the sectoral expertise of stakeholders to determine the ways to enact fit-for-purpose legislation. As we enter the new year, business must make plans to push for this exchange with the right policymakers with influence over the right regulations.

Get in touch with us (EU.energy@grayling.com) and follow the conversation on the Fit for 55 package on Twitter @TheEULobby

Grayling named Large Consultancy of the Year at the European Excellence Awards

13 December 2021 | By Berith Hagvaag | 0 Comments

Grayling has been named Large Consultancy of the Year at the European Excellence Awards 2021. The awards, which took place on Friday 10 December, also saw Grayling win across four other campaign categories including Food & Beverage (UK), NGOs & Associations (Russia), Benelux & France, and Germany, Switzerland & Austria.

These awards cap a stellar 2021 for Grayling across Europe. Despite the challenges of the pandemic, Grayling has delivered double digit revenue growth across the continent. Underpinning this growth has been a strategy which has driven greater integration and collaborative working across all European offices. In the past year, Grayling has focused further on blended services, particularly higher margin, strategic consultancy work. The existing diverse set of skills has been bolstered by key hires across Grayling’s pan-European teams.

The multiple awards reflect the hard work of Grayling’s staff across Europe. Despite the pandemic, Grayling colleagues have delivered the highest quality of service for the clients.

Sarah Scholefield, Global CEO said: “We are delighted to be named Large Consultancy of the Year at the European Excellence Awards, alongside four wins for outstanding client campaigns across the region. These incredible results are testament to the dedication and hard work of our staff across Europe. The pandemic has presented many challenges for our people, but they have all consistently delivered outstanding campaigns and results. I couldn’t be prouder of the work they have done and we’re all looking forward to continuing this success in 2022.”

European Excellence Award wins:

Large Agency of the Year category – Grayling won the prestigious Large Agency of the Year award following a year which saw growth across all our European teams, in both revenue and employee numbers, and a number of landmark client wins.
Food & Beverage – Grayling in London picked up the award for their work with fish-free brand Good Catch with OurWay, a campaign described by Ad Week as “promotional gold”.
NGOs & Associations – the Grayling Moscow team capped off a brilliant year – having already been named Russia/CIS Consultancy of the Year at the PRovoke Awards – with a win for their work with the Social Partnership Development fund, on the campaign No more Chemistry with Chemo which tackled the issue of social isolation for women with cancer in Russia.
Benelux & France – Grayling in Paris were recognised for their work with client Badoo in the Benelux & France category. The campaign, entitled Yes to Real Encounters, Yes to Beautiful Encounters, addressed the issue of microaggressions in the dating process and involved the production of a short film to raise awareness and educate the public on the issue.
Germany, Switzerland & Austria – The team at Grayling Vienna have been named in the regional Germany, Austria and Switzerland category for their campaign Raising Worldwide Awareness about Old Age Poverty. This campaign was carried out with Vollpension Generationencafé and aimed to raise awareness about age-poverty and Covid-induced isolation for elderly citizens around the world.

For more information about the European Excellence Awards click here.

Beyond the Glasgow Climate Pact

15 November 2021 (updated 15 November 2021) | By Berith Hagvaag | 0 Comments

The Glasgow Climate Pact, agreed late on Saturday 13th November, finally drew COP26 to a close. Speaking at a press conference the following day, the UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson described the summit as a success and the ‘world is undeniably heading in the right direction’ but even he acknowledged that much work remained to be done and the final agreement fell short of the aspirations of many.

While the COP26 agreement is a milestone and significant progress has been made in some areas, the new emission pledges still do not yet achieve the 1.5C target agreed in Paris. Importantly though it lays down the expectations of what countries are expected to do ahead of the next round of negotiations next year. So, the Glasgow Climate Pact potentially paves the way for more radical plans to be presented at COP27 in Egypt and for nations to scope out how that target can be achieved, instead of the current forecast 2.4C trajectory.

It is also important to look at what’s been achieved beyond the deal, including agreements on deforestation and 500 global financial services firms agreeing to align $130 trillion to the Paris goals. However, there is lingering regret that key issues have been left unresolved or ‘watered down’, including fossil fuels after India and China’s last-minute intervention to change the language from ‘phasing out’ to ‘phasing down’ their use.

Post-Glasgow, a fundamental question now is what needs to change to get even more traction on this and other challenges, with the clock ticking towards what scientists warn are dangerous levels of climate change on the horizon. After all, Egypt will not be able to mobilise the diplomatic resources for COP27 next year that the United Kingdom has brought to bear in 2020 and 2021.

While the answer to that is multi-faceted, one potential driver of change is Sino-US leadership on climate change that re-emerged at Glasgow. Despite their wider bilateral tensions, and China’s continued addiction to coal, this G2 partnership to tackle global warming could be a potentially very important during the remainder of Joe Biden’s presidency.

Reactions to the deal have been very mixed. António Guterres, UN Secretary General said: “It is an important step but is not enough. We must accelerate climate action to keep alive the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.” While most global leaders have acknowledged progress, there is also a sense that the final deal falls short. Many poorer countries, while acknowledging that some finance has been made available, are disappointed about the lack of recognition of the principle of loss and damage and that the level of finance on the table is not nearly enough. The sense of disappointment is shared by climate activists. John Kerry, the US Climate Envoy, perhaps summed up the deal’s impact most accurately when he said that though it will not end the climate crisis, a new ‘starting pistol’ had been fired to address global climate change post-Paris.

All eyes now turn to COP27 in Egypt. Next year’s meeting will aim to secure further pledges from each nation to make major carbon cuts to get much closer to the 1.5C goal with greater movement needed by larger emitting countries such as Russia and India to get there.

One of the key lessons of the last six years since Paris is that delivery is now critical with implementation of climate deals best through national laws. So, the country ‘commitments’ put forward so far, will be most credible – and durable – if they are backed up by legally-binding legislation. If that happens, and key powers including the United States and EU continue to raise the bar of overall global climate ambitions, the 1.5C aspirations of Paris can still potentially be kept in play.

Would you like to know more? Our team can help you navigate post Cop26 developments and support you in your engagement with decision makers and the broader public: cop26@grayling.com

Grayling 7x shortlisted at the European Excellence Awards

10 November 2021 (updated 10 November 2021) | By Berith Hagvaag | 0 Comments

Grayling has been named seven times on the shortlist for the 2021 European Excellence Awards, which celebrate the best campaigns and agencies from across Europe. The nominees for this year were selected from over 800 applications for each category.

Grayling was this year nominated in the prestigious Large Agency of the Year category, testament to the fantastic year we have had. We have seen growth across all of our European teams, in both revenue and employee numbers, and have added clients including The Lego Group to our rosters.

Grayling UK has been recognised in the Food & Beverage category for their work with fish-free brand Good Catch on OurWay, a campaign described by Ad Week as “promotional gold”.

Our team at Grayling Russia are ending a brilliant year, having already been named Russia/CIS Consultancy of the Year at the PRovoke Agency of the Year awards, with two European Excellence Award nominations. They have first been named in the NGO’s & Associations category for their work with the Social Partnership Development fund, on a campaign named No more chemistry with chemo which tackled the issue of social isolation for women with cancer in Russia, and secondly in the Influencer Communications category for their work with client Crocs.

Grayling France were recognised for their work with client Badoo in the Benelux & France category. The campaign, entitled Yes to real encounters, Yes to Beautiful encounters, addressed the issue of microaggressions in the dating process and involved the production of a short film to raise awareness and educate the French public on the issue.

The team at Grayling Austria have been named in the regional Germany, Austria and Switzerland category for their campaign Raising worldwide awareness about old age poverty. This campaign was carried out with client Vollpension Generationencafé and aimed to raise awareness about age-poverty and Covid-induced isolation for elderly Viennese citizens.

Finally, Grayling Hungary have been recognised for their work with Diageo; the Hungarian team organised a livestreamed concert, with access granted on the completion of a ‘DRINKiQ’ quiz – an innovative way of educating Hungarians on the importance of responsible drinking.

The jury – which included Grayling’s global CEO Sarah Scholefield (who recused herself from judging Grayling entries) – will meet in late November to discuss the shortlist, and the winners of the European Excellence Awards will be announced at a virtual ceremony on 10^th December.

5 things to look out for in the European Commission’s new work programme

21 October 2021 (updated 21 October 2021) | By Berith Hagvaag | 0 Comments

Behind the headlines of the “Fit for 55” climate package and COVID-19 pandemic, the European Commission has been quietly planning its work for 2022. The current legislative term will reach its halfway point next year, and the publication of the Commission’s annual work programme (CWP) on 19 October provides a roadmap on the measures to come.

While the 2021 CWP was highly anticipated for its details on the EU’s climate legislation overhaul, its sequel has faced lower expectations. It is however no less consequential to a wide range of economic sectors.

The planned proposals are intended to implement the key cross-sectoral strategies stemming from the European Green Deal, including on circular economy, pollution prevention, and sustainable mobility. The introduction of these new rules will be guided by the ‘one-in, one-out’, ‘do no significant harm’ and ‘digital-by-default’ principles to address administrative burden, sustainability, and digitalisation in all EU decision-making.

Here are the five things to look out for in the Commission’s 2022 work programme.

Plastics – Major steps on microplastics

Building on the EU’s circular economy and zero pollution action plans, the Commission is planning to adopt significant legislative proposals on microplastics in 2022.

These emerging pollutants are a major concern in the environmental strategy of President von der Leyen’s Commission, which has set a target to reduce the amount of microplastics released into the environment by 30% by 2030. To this end, the 2022 CWP foresees the adoption of measures to restrict intentionally added microplastics (Q4 2022) and measures to reduce the release of microplastics into the environment from tyres, textiles, and pellets (Q4 2022).

The planned restriction is expected to prevent 500,000 tonnes of plastic particles from ending up in the environment to an estimated cost of €11-19 billion on companies currently including microplastics in their products.

Chemicals – Streamlining a stricter framework

Like the ‘Plastics package’, the key chemicals proposals in the CWP are focused on tackling pollutants of concern, such as endocrine disruptors, from ending up in the air and waterways. Revisions of the Classification, Labelling, and Packaging Regulation (May 2022), the list of surface and groundwater pollutants (September 2022), and the Detergents Regulation (December 2022) are all intended to place new requirements on the making available and handling of substances in line with the Commission’s Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability.

The higher costs on the industry from the new labelling obligations are expected to be offset by improvements to the functioning of the single market. These include the easing of some labelling requirements with new classification categories for chemicals, alignment of the electronics sector with the ‘one substance – one assessment’ principle, and streamlining the scientific and technical work of EU agencies on chemicals.

Health – Overhaul of pharmaceutical legislation

The COVID-19 crisis has pushed European health policy into the spotlight. While the Commission’s focus in 2021 was, understandably, on crisis response and preparedness – with key action notably on vaccine roll out and the proposal for a Health Emergency Response Authority (HERA) – 2022 will be another big year for health.

Under the ambitious Pharmaceutical Strategy for Europe (adopted in 2020), the European Commission will revise the basic pharmaceutical legislation. This long-awaited overhaul of the legal framework aims to bring the rules into line with technological developments, ensuring patients can access affordable medicines, addressing ‘unmet needs’ (rare diseases and antimicrobial resistance), fostering innovation and reducing regulatory burden – as well as integrating lessons learnt from the COVID-19 pandemic around issues such as security of medicine supply. A Commission proposal is expected for Q4 2022.

In parallel, the Commission will also revise EU legislation on medicines for children and rare diseases, simplifying current rules while revisiting how pharmaceutical companies are incentivised to fulfil these patients’ needs.

Digital – Geopolitical semiconductors

Introduced to the European Parliament as a part of Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union speech this September, the European Chips Act is intended to do no less that to ‘put Europe back in the tech race’. The Commission’s directorate for communications network (DG CNECT) is currently considering how to come up with major initiatives to enhance the competitiveness and resilience of the European semiconductor – or “chip” – industry. The purpose of the act is to address the EU’s strategic dependencies on imported semiconductors by strengthening the security of supply and accelerate production capacities beyond domestic demand.

In lieu of concrete next steps, the Commission is expected to roll out a strategy on semiconductors in Q2 2022 to outline a package of future legislative measures.

Mobility – Single framework for multimodal travel

In addition to the proposal on a framework for measuring transport emissions foreseen for Q4 2022, the Commission is looking to set up legislative standards for EU-wide digital ticketing. While the adoption of a common ISO standard for emissions reporting can be expected to reduce administrative burdens on the supply side, the legislation on multimodal digital mobility services (MDMS) is expected to make it easier for the demand side to choose more environmentally friendly and efficient travel options as a part of their journey.

The European Green Deal sets a target for 90% emissions reductions in the transport sector by 2050. So far, the focus has been on transport companies and fuel suppliers, while less attention has been given to the practical solutions on how to empower travellers to decarbonise. The Commission’s initiative considers repealing the existing code of conduct for computerised reservation systems (CRS) – digital platforms used to search and buy airline tickets, hotel rooms, and rental cars, among other activities – in order to incorporate these ticketing services into the regulatory push for more environmental travel choices.

The initiative is expected to be adopted in Q4 2022.

What happens next

The Commission will begin the preparatory work already this year, with the first public consultations on the planned proposals expected to be published within the next month. The full process from an impact assessment to the final legislative proposal will take months and provides numerous opportunities for stakeholders to be heard in the development of the new EU rules – as long as the positions are coherent and actively voiced to the right policymakers.

The subsequent legislative procedure will of course offer further opportunities to shape the legislation in the European Parliament and the Council, but by missing the early stages in the Commission, a concerned stakeholder has already given opposing interests a substantial head start.

Get in touch with our team in Brussels (brusselspa@grayling.com) and follow the conversation on the Fit for 55 package on Twitter @TheEULobby

What to expect at COP 26

18 October 2021 (updated 21 October 2021) | By Ayer Mehmet | 0 Comments

The clock is ticking to the start of the COP 26 climate summit with public, private and third sector organisations making final preparations for engaging with what may prove to be the largest ever UK-hosted international event. While COPs are held every twelve months, except for 2020 during the first year of the pandemic, Glasgow is the most important since Paris, and UK ministers have sought to learn key ‘lessons’ from that landmark 2015 conference.

One of those learnings is the importance of a long ‘run-in’ prior to the event with French officials engaging international stakeholders for two years before the start of Paris. The French Government threw the full weight of the state behind that 2015 event with then-foreign minister Laurent Fabius, who was in the 1980s France’s youngest ever prime minister, the most effective ever COP president.

Former UK business secretary Alok Sharma is this year’s COP president and he has done extensive diplomatic legwork having flown to more than 30 countries this year alone. Yet, while he has clocked up the air miles, UK preparations have been significantly hampered by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, and London is currently still scrambling to try to ensure attendance of key world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping who at the time of writing has still not confirmed whether he will attend.

Xi’s absence, if he doesn’t travel to Glasgow, could be a particular challenge for the UK Government delivering a successful summit. China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions and Xi, alongside then-US president Barack Obama, was a pivotal player in the build-up to Paris in 2015. This included the momentum he brought to the signing of the US-China climate agreement that year that helped pave the way for securing the new global climate treaty in France.

The fact that there is still much left to do, diplomatically, to get Glasgow on track was highlighted by Sharma earlier this month when he made a point of warning that “COP 26 is not a photo op or a talking shop. It must be the forum where we put the world on track to deliver on climate. And that is down to leaders”.

Climate diplomacy super-surge in October and November

With ‘success’ in November far from certain, London along with key allies is now engaged in a global diplomatic climate super-surge. This began in New York last month at the United Nations when UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met counterparts from across the world to try to get progress in five key priority areas, namely;

The energy transition
The shift to zero-carbon transport
Adaptation and resilience
Nature and safeguarding of ecosystems
Unleashing green finance

It will be enormously hard to get substantive deals in all of these areas this Autumn. Privately, some key figures involved in the talks have admitted that a key headline goal of securing enough pledges on greenhouse gas emission cuts from major economies will most likely fall short of the halving needed this decade to limit global warming to the 1.5C cap agreed in Paris.

The goal instead may therefore become that of trying to keep 1.5C ‘alive’ with Glasgow potentially setting a pathway to avoid the worst impact of climate change in the decades to come. Any such Glasgow deal could allow for future updates to emissions pledges in the next few years to try to allow the world to stay within scientific advice on carbon levels.

Yet, even that goal remains in the balance for now, and that is why the UK Government is undertaking a diplomatic surge, including at this month’s G20 leadership summit in Italy. In New York last month, for instance, UK efforts were aided by several high-profile announcements, including US President Joe Biden’s pledge to work with Congress to try to quadruple the US financial commitment to help developing nations confront the climate crisis to 11.4 billion dollars per year.

However, even with this new money, the target for an important new fund of 100 billion dollars from industrialised countries for climate help to the developing world is still an estimated 10 billion dollars a year short. So other countries will also need to dig deeper into their pockets too.

With much therefore yet to fall in place, United Nations Secretary General António Guterres warned again last month that “if we don’t change course, we may be headed for a catastrophic temperature rise of more than 3C this century” above pre-industrial levels. He urged all countries to move as quickly as possible to carbon neutrality to limit temperature rises to no more than 1.5C. Both the UK Government, and the United Nations are therefore now doubling down on the process of encouraging countries to adopt tougher emission reduction targets to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5C, and ensure that developing countries on the frontline of the climate crisis get increased financial support.

Creating a post-Glasgow summit roadmap

While Glasgow will be a key staging post in the battle against global warming, Guterres and other key players are already looking ahead too in case the COP fails to deliver on the high expectations surrounding it. Following the challenges of the Trump presidency, and with Biden in power till at least January 2025, and potentially for four years on top of that, there may now be a 3-7 year opportunity to act in what the US president has called a ‘decisive decade’.

What key UN officials and others are hoping, if this opportunity can be harnessed, is development and implementation of a clear roadmap into the 2030s. While this bridge to the next decade still requires greater definition, it involves not just setting ambition targets, but also creating the framework for meeting them.

This requires implementation of the Paris and any Glasgow deals through national laws where politically feasible to make them most effective. The country ‘commitments’ put forward so far, which will hopefully be enhanced in November, will be most credible — and durable — if they are backed up by legislation where this is possible.

In the United States, part of the reason then-president Donald Trump was able to go about unravelling Obama’s Paris ratification so relatively straightforwardly is that it was, politically, impossible to get the treaty approved in Congress. Obama therefore embedded the agreement through executive order, which Trump rescinded, before Biden reinstated it this year.

Compared to executive orders, legislation is more difficult to roll back. And this is especially when supported — as in many countries — by well informed, cross-party lawmakers who can put in place a credible set of policies and measures to ensure effective implementation.

While world-wide climate pledges made are not yet enough for 1.5C, domestic legal frameworks are being put in place that are potentially crucial building blocks to measure, report, verify and manage greenhouse gas emissions. In the future, the ambition must be that these frameworks are replicated in even more countries, and progressively ratcheted up. And there are some clear signs of this happening already in numerous states, from Asia-Pacific to the Americas, as countries seek to toughen their response to global warming.

Going forward, Glasgow therefore still has the potential to help co-create, and implement, what could be a foundation of global sustainable development for billions across the world. This must start with speedy, comprehensive implementation of Paris, but needs to move beyond this and capitalise on the greater climate ambition that November’s summit will hopefully offer.

Andrew Hammond leads Quiller Consultants, and heads the global affairs offer of Quiller and Grayling. He has been engaged in the COP process since Copenhagen in 2009, and is providing strategic counsel to clients before and after the Glasgow summit on ESG issues.

For more information, please contact: globalaffairs@grayling.com

What to expect at COP 26

18 October 2021 | By Ayer Mehmet | 0 Comments

The clock is ticking to the start of the COP 26 climate summit with public, private and third sector organisations making final preparations for engaging with what may prove to be the largest ever UK-hosted international event. While COPs are held every twelve months, except for 2020 during the first year of the pandemic, Glasgow is the most important since Paris, and UK ministers have sought to learn key ‘lessons’ from that landmark 2015 conference.

One of those learnings is the importance of a long ‘run-in’ prior to the event with French officials engaging international stakeholders for two years before the start of Paris. The French Government threw the full weight of the state behind that 2015 event with then-foreign minister Laurent Fabius, who was in the 1980s France’s youngest ever prime minister, the most effective ever COP president.

Former UK business secretary Alok Sharma is this year’s COP president and he has done extensive diplomatic legwork having flown to more than 30 countries this year alone. Yet, while he has clocked up the air miles, UK preparations have been significantly hampered by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, and London is currently still scrambling to try to ensure attendance of key world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping who at the time of writing has still not confirmed whether he will attend.

Xi’s absence, if he doesn’t travel to Glasgow, could be a particular challenge for the UK Government delivering a successful summit. China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions and Xi, alongside then-US president Barack Obama, was a pivotal player in the build-up to Paris in 2015. This included the momentum he brought to the signing of the US-China climate agreement that year that helped pave the way for securing the new global climate treaty in France.

The fact that there is still much left to do, diplomatically, to get Glasgow on track was highlighted by Sharma earlier this month when he made a point of warning that “COP 26 is not a photo op or a talking shop. It must be the forum where we put the world on track to deliver on climate. And that is down to leaders”.

Climate diplomacy super-surge in October and November

With ‘success’ in November far from certain, London along with key allies is now engaged in a global diplomatic climate super-surge. This began in New York last month at the United Nations when UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met counterparts from across the world to try to get progress in five key priority areas, namely;

The energy transition
The shift to zero-carbon transport
Adaptation and resilience
Nature and safeguarding of ecosystems
Unleashing green finance