Archives: Election Hub

Enter Nigel Farage

It would be an understatement to call last week a bad one for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives. It started with Nigel Farage announcing that he would indeed be standing as an MP (for Clacton) and was assuming the leadership of the Reform UK. The Conservatives have been worried about Reform picking up support from its right for some time. News that Farage, who has huge media clout, was taking over the party’s leadership was a big blow to an already challenging campaign.

Even more worrying from a Conservative perspective is the prospect that Farage might actually win a seat in Westminster, something he has failed to do on seven previous attempts. Could it be that in Clacton, the belle of the Essex coast, he might just break his duck? The thought of him sitting in Parliament, either drawing Conservatives from the right of the party to Reform, or, worse still, becoming a Conservative himself and vying for the leadership of the party is horrifying many Conservatives. Those in the centre and left of the party worry that this would be a catalyst for the breakup of their party. Their concern is not necessarily misplaced. Indeed only this weekend, Farage unveiled a six-year “masterplan to reshape politics” and asserted that he would form the “real opposition”. This morning Suella Braverman is openly suggesting that the Conservative embrace him. Much will rest on the good burghers of Clacton.

Sunak’s tax claim

On Tuesday, Sunak faced Keir Starmer in the first TV debate of the campaign. Both men were tetchy, and the format didn’t make for a proper exchange of views. Starmer was probably a little weaker on the night, failing to rebut swiftly Sunak’s repeated claim that the Labour Party would increase taxes by £2,000, a figure he claimed had been calculated by civil servants. Sunak will have gone to bed delighted that he managed to land that punch. By the morning, though, the claim was unravelling, not just because Labour had got its act together but because the most senior civil servant at the Treasury took the very unusual step of publicly distancing himself and his officials from the claims . This is as close as a public servant will come to calling their political paymasters a liar. All very unedifying.

D-Day disaster

Thursday should have been a day off politics as we marked the 80^th anniversary of the   D-Day landings, poignant not just because this will almost certainly be the last time the veterans of the event will be able to attend the commemoration, but because it was being marked in the shadow of another land war being fought in Europe. Rather than take the day to let the accusations of dishonesty die down, Sunak decided to leave Normandy early for a TV interview to defend the £2,000 tax rise claim. It was a breathtaking lack of judgment. Disrespecting veterans was clearly the worst offence, but by absenting himself from the international events Sunak conceded the world stage to Starmer.

Despite his apology, Sunak has been roundly condemned, including by his own Cabinet colleague Penny Mordant on the second TV debate on Friday evening.  Privately the criticism he has faced from his own colleagues has been brutal, donors are said to be furious, and reports from those Conservative activists braving the doorstep this weekend indicate that its not going down well with the voting public.

Over to the manifestos 

It is hard to know how Sunak and the Conservatives can come back from a week like that. They will be hoping that the publication of their manifesto, expected Tuesday, will provide a fresh opportunity to appeal to their core supporters to retain as many MPs as possible, beginning with a focus on crime and sentencing today. It looks increasingly the case that they would need a serious Labour misstep to get them back in the game.

It is not impossible that Labour will blunder. Their immediate and real worry is that its lead in the polls will encourage its potential supporters that they need not vote at all or that they could vote for another party and still get a Labour government. It will seek to spend the remainder of the campaign dispelling this view. The party will be hoping that its manifesto, due to be unveiled on Thursday, will reassure voters that it will bring stability, change and reform while not increasing taxes. Its strategy will focus on the main issues, avoid doing or saying anything that will alarm voters and leave the Conservatives to implode.

In Nicky Morgan’s latest episode as host of the Vantage Point political podcast by Grayling, she speaks with Tanya Joseph, recently appointed member of the Grayling Senior Advisory Board and former senior Labour advisor.

In this episode, Tanya and Nicky dive deep into:

🔹 Labour’s potential edge in the 2024 UK General Election and what we can anticipate from its manifesto.
🔹 The high stakes and intense pressure of election campaigns, dissecting the strategies and challenges ahead.
🔹 An analysis of the recent South African elections and the significant political ramifications for the country.

Listen now or head to our Spotify channel to listen to other episodes in the series.

Labour has dominated the political scene in Wales for decades. Not only has it held power in the Senedd for a quarter of a century, it has emerged as Wales’ biggest party in every General Election since 1922, currently holding 22 of the 40 Welsh seats in the House of Commons. With boundary changes coming into effect, this year the number of constituencies in Wales will drop to 32, with Labour currently predicted to win at least 25.

Labour’s stronghold across South Wales remains unwavering, and the party is expected to re-gain a number of seats in the traditional North East ‘Red Wall’, where voters were overcome with ‘Boris-mania’ and swung Conservative in 2019.

Boundary changes mean the party is polling well in formerly rural Conservative seats, such as the Vale of Glamorgan and Monmouthshire, leaving well known figures including Secretary of State for Wales, David TC Davies, in serious danger of defenestration.

So yes – for now, Labour looks set for success in Wales, but, with newly-minted First Minister Vaughan Gething facing an ongoing row over donations to his leadership campaign, this will not be without controversy.

Welsh Labour’s current scandals are less than ideal for campaigning, with candidate for the new seat of Mid and South Pembrokeshire, Henry Tufnell, refusing to campaign alongside the First Minister.  With Vaughan Gething having lost a vote of no confidence in the Senedd yesterday, it may only be matter of time before other candidates come to the same conclusion.

The party has also faced criticism for parachuting in two candidates, Alex Barros-Curtis and Torsten Bell, seemingly without any links to Wales, to the seats of Cardiff West and Swansea West respectively. Despite speculation around internal party division, the pair will almost certainly be elected.

Changing of the guard

There is unlikely to be any silver lining for the Conservative Party in this election. Currently it holds 13 seats in Wales but is only expected to return, at most, two Welsh MPs – Craig Williams in Montgomeryshire and Fay Jones in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe.

Plaid Cymru has three MPs at present, with Johnathan Edwards having served as an Independent member since 2020. Mr Edwards’ decision not to stand in the new Caerfyrddin seat will be welcome news for Plaid candidate Ann Davies, who will be hoping to sweep up his local support. However, the Labour target seat could well be won by their candidate, former DIST policy adviser, Martha O’Neil. Either way, former Secretary of State for Wales, Simon Hart, looks likely to be without a seat on July 5^th.

Plaid Cymru’s long-term ambition is to break into the South Wales Valleys, but – for now – the Party will be doing well to elect four MPs. With Liz Saville Roberts in Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ben Lake in Ceredigion Preseli assumed to be safe, their final hope is the three-way marginal of Ynys Môn.

It’s a favourite piece of trivia among Welsh politicos that Ynys Môn has never failed to return its sitting MP. However, this year the polls are showing a Labour gain for Ieuan Môn Williams, although Plaid Council Leader, Llinos Medi, also has a solid chance of wresting the seat from the Conservative incumbent Virginia Crosbie.

What’s next?

Those who miss out on a seat in Westminster may be tempted to stand for the Senedd in 2026, when Wales will elect an increased number of 96 MSs. Plaid will be looking to make in-roads across the South, whilst the Conservatives will be keen to win back seats across their heartlands in rural Mid Wales if the General Election delivers the expected results. The challenge for Labour will be to convince the public it deserves their votes following the recent leadership donations row, especially when there’s no Conservative government in Westminster to blame for funding shortfalls. While they might be successful this time around, with the First Minister’s position looking increasingly precarious, Welsh Labour cannot afford to be complacent.

To hear more about our work in Wales, get in touch with Sian Jones via sian.jones@grayling.com.

Two of Grayling’s senior advisory board, former Deputy Political Editor of Sky News, Joey Jones, and newly appointed Labour expert Tanya Joseph, discuss the fallout from yesterday’s debate between the two people vying to be the next Prime Minister.

Tune into their expert commentary and nuanced insights that go beyond the headlines. Don’t miss a thought-provoking conversation that will keep you informed and engaged in the political pulse of the nation.

Sunak goes early

It has been 10 days since Rishi Sunak stood outside 10 Downing Street to announce a general election on 4 July. Sunak told us that he was a man with a plan – a message which fell rather flat as he stood in the pouring rain without an umbrella getting increasingly soaked.

If he had a plan, it quickly became clear that it was not one he had shared with colleagues. It soon emerged that the Conservative leader had told the King that he wished to call an election before he told the Cabinet. Conventionally the Prime Minister consults the Cabinet before seeking the formal permission of the monarch to dissolve Parliament.

There has been huge speculation as to why he decided to go now. News of a small decrease in inflation could certainly have spurred him on, an inkling that there would be no more good economic news for a while would have encouraged him, but it is equally likely he just didn’t want to carry on.

Going for the over-70s

While critics have characterised Sunak’s campaign strategy as being inspired by The Producers (the film in which two Hollywood producers deliberately try to produce a flop), it is probably more the case that his approach is informed by a very narrow reading of the Conservative Party’s private polls. These indicate that the over-70s are more likely to vote for him and, given that there are more older people in the population and they are more likely to vote than other age groups, it is not entirely foolish to find policies which appeal to them.

As a result, his two big announcements in the first week of the campaign are very much geared towards this group: national service for all 18-year-olds and commitments about protecting state pensions. And unsurprisingly the Conservatives have started the second full week of the campaigning talking about gender, or, more precisely, the definition of a woman. They know that this is a question to which none of the other parties have a coherent answer and that theirs is more aligned to the views of older voters, and indeed to many beyond.

Labour’s mixed start

Labour will be hoping that Sunak’s calculations are wrong and that older people do care about education, health, the economy, crime – all areas where it is polling better than the Conservatives.

Keir Starmer had a pretty good start to the campaign, with the party coming over as sensible, stable and trust-worthy, particularly when it comes to the economy. He is growing in confidence and understands that one of his main challenges is that the electorate don’t know him and that he needs to tell us a bit more about himself and his values.

However, the Labour campaign stalled badly after a row about whether veteran leftist Diane Abbott was or was not allowed to stand as a Labour candidate. The fact the row took attention away from policy announcements for several days is bad news for Labour and speaks to poor communications management. Instead of communicating the results of its lengthy inquiry into her behaviour clearly and quickly, the story leaked, Abbott was given the upper hand, and hapless members of the Labour team were giving interviews without knowing the actual position. More importantly, it allowed the Conservatives and media to ask whether Starmer really has control of his party.

While the Abbott row will blow over, Starmer will be all too well aware that the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn will continue to haunt him. A key element of its election strategy is to reassure voters that it can be trusted to protect the country and grow the economy – both areas on which it was perceived as weak during the Corbyn era – hence today’s focus on the UK’s nuclear deterrent and defence spending. Expect more, much more on the economy.

It has been a roller coaster so far and we are just at the beginning. Strap in, folks, it’s going to be a long campaign.

Please get in touch with alan.boyd-hall@grayling.com or tanya.joseph@grayling.com if you’d like to know more about Grayling’s Election Survival Kit for businesses.

Grayling Associate Director and former lead for the campaign to introduce voluntary, non-military national service in the UK, Leo Watson, reflects on the Conservative Party’s first major policy announcement of the 2024 General Election campaign.

A bit of controversy to start… love or loathe the brand, the UK needs a national service offer.

Indeed, it already has one in UK Service Year. The Government has been funding this voluntary and non-military national service offer over the last few years through its last flagship youth initiative, The National Citizen Service, which was set up as part of David Cameron’s doomed ‘Big Society’ project.

The vision is a bold one: ‘unlock the power of the next generation to help solve some of our toughest challenges, putting them into paid positions of work and helping communities where the needs are greatest’. It brings together organisations across the nation that have been providing full-time volunteering offers for decades, including Volunteering Matters, British Red Cross and City Year UK.

And why did the Government fund such a pilot? Well, because programmes in the UK and overseas (France, USA, Germany and many more) have proven to have a significant positive impact on their respective economies, social cohesion and social mobility. They have even provided a return on investment for the money those Governments have put in.

Frankly, national service is a no-brainer.

Yet, in my view, Sunday’s announcement of national service by Team Rishi will set this movement back years. And not just because it’s been announced by what appears to the final days of a faltering 14-year administration; it’s because they simply just don’t get it.

The key to a successful national service programme, fit the for 21^st century, are the two words: ‘voluntary’ and ‘non-military’. Whether intentional or otherwise (and the cynic in me thinks the former given Rishi’s love-bombing of the over 60s), when announcing a national service option with a side order of compulsory khaki and command, it’s always the military service that will lead the news. Cue rhetoric about how young people have lost their way, need toughening up and must learn the value of discipline.

These are nothing more than tired old tropes played out by every generation. The truth is that the majority of young people do want to serve their country. However, rather than being forced to take up arms and march in unison, they want to serve their country by supporting their schools, hospitals, care homes, museums, community groups and environment. Yes, what Team Rishi has announced would allow them to do that, but in a piecemeal way of one or two days at a time – which would significantly restrict their impact.

If I was advising Labour right now, I’d tell them to run with the idea… but to do it right.

Labour has been talking about ‘service’ for six months. It was only in January that they published their ‘Let’s Get Britain’s Future Back’ pamphlet, where Sir Keir’s own foreword proudly proclaimed that his mission-led Government would require the restoration of ‘an ethic of service’, describing this as ‘the hope of change and renewal allied to the responsibility of service’.

So, I challenge them to put their money where their mouth is.

Give people of all ages the opportunity to serve in civilian life, but for an unbroken 6-12 months, in a properly funded and branded programme, and in an area of their choosing. Reward the pioneers who take up the call with tuition debt relief, a pot of money to put towards skills development, and/or guaranteed job.

Indeed, it was a fairly successful centrist and true disciple of the ‘Third Way’, President Bill Clinton, who established the offer I’m proposing (AmeriCorps) in the States. Moreover, this was inspired by JFK’s Peace Corps, which to this day allows youngsters in the USA to serve on international development programmes. Quick sidenote, why is it that we are much more comfortable for young people to go abroad to serve than we are with allowing them to do this at home?

At a time when all the main parties in this election are struggling to create a vision and offer that will tackle our society’s significant challenges and unite a divided nation, surely a programme of voluntary, non-military national service is their answer?

Instead, Labour has seized upon the opportunity to bash the Conservatives for being out of touch and out of control with their spending commitments. As they look set to take power, the result is likely to be that a truly transformative initiative will have to wait at least another parliamentary cycle for lift off.

Another missed opportunity. And who are the losers? That’s the real blow… it’s you, it’s me and it’s just about the entire nation.

To speak to our Public Affairs team about how Grayling can support your organisation during the election campaign and beyond, contact leo.watson@grayling.com.