Archives: Election Hub

With Labour’s first full week complete, our Public Affairs team has taken a deep dive into policy priorities ahead of the King’s Speech this week. We’ve also looked at key moments for the next few months, how the election went down in the devolved nations and set out our top tips on cutting through the noise of a new Parliament.

One of the most remarkable features of our democracy is that we change governments overnight. In the United States, the transition between presidencies takes a couple of months, in the UK it takes a few hours. It is the moment when civil service impartiality comes into play – officials whose job it was to follow the instructions of one government, demonstrate their impartiality by transferring their allegiance to the new administration without missing a beat. The new Prime Minister takes charge of the security of our nation and gets on with things, foreign and domestic.

The UK’s Unique Government Changeover

Last Thursday Rishi Sunak woke up as Prime Minister and within 24 hours Sir Keir Starmer was in the job. Not unexpectedly his first days in the role have been without much fanfare.

In the early hours of Friday morning, speaking to campaign workers, Starmer allowed himself a smile which hinted at his triumph. Then he was on to the serious work of leading the country.

The Early Days of Starmer’s Premiership

Starmer quickly named his Cabinet (the most diverse in history) and signalled seriousness of intent by holding a Cabinet meeting on Saturday – I can’t recall the last time this happened in peacetime – immediately followed by a press conference – again very unusual.  Over the next couple of days, the entire Ministerial team was put in place and Starmer himself undertook a 24-hour tour of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales and then met with the elected metro mayors on his return to Downing Street.

As Starmer was emphasising that he was the Prime Minister for the entire country whilst also respecting devolution, his Cabinet got to work. The Home Secretary scrapped the Rwanda scheme; the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced significant changes to the planning system designed to drive growth; the Health Secretary met with representatives of junior doctors in an effort to resolve their long-running industrial dispute; and the Foreign Secretary made clear that the new Government wished to strengthen the UK’s relationship with the EU. All by Tuesday.

Global Engagement: Opportunities for Leadership

On Wednesday Starmer went to the NATO heads of government summit in Washington DC. With France’s President Macron weakened following the legislative elections, Germany’s Chancellor Scholz under pressure, and so much uncertainty about the US presidency, there is space here for Starmer to establish himself as a global leader and strengthen Britain’s position in the world.

It has been quite a week. It is very early days, but all the indications are that Starmer’s government is determined to deliver the change agenda it promised in the election campaign.

In office, Labour has continued to emphasise its desire to collaborate with business to deliver its priorities. It is very much open for business and Grayling can help you engage effectively with the key decision makers and policy influencers. Contact our Government and Public Affairs team today to discover how we can help you navigate this dynamic political landscape and achieve your objectives.

Following yesterday’s UK General Election, it is now confirmed that the Labour Party will form a majority Government. As predicted by recent polling, this represents a landmark victory for Labour, with Sir Keir Starmer only the fourth Labour Leader to take the party from Opposition to Government. At the time of writing, the Labour Party has won 411 seats – with a historic increase of 210 seats from their seat share in the last Parliament. Labour’s parliamentary dominance will now be on a similar scale to Tony Blair’s 1997 administration.

That said, the election results paint a much more complicated picture than the figures initially suggest. When looking at overall vote share, Labour has received a modest 33.9% of the vote as things stand, compared to a 43.2% Labour vote share in the landslide 1997 victory. Labour has a strong mandate to govern, but this is clouded by an uneasy sense of an electorate whose loyalties are increasingly unstable.

These 2024 General Election results perhaps most faithfully reflect a vote of dissent against the previous Conservative Government – who are currently sat with 119 seats, representing a huge loss of 249 seats. The Conservative Party are internally relieved that their ‘worst case scenario’ has not been met, and that they remain the second largest party and will form the Official Opposition. But this undoubtedly represents a disastrous result for the Conservatives, and the leadership contest to replace Rishi Sunak will commence soon.

The other story of this election was the significant role of the smaller parties, with a wide range of regional issues and voting dynamics coming to the fore. This left an inconsistent voting pattern across the country and will mean a broad representation of smaller parties in the new parliamentary term. In fact, the House of Commons will welcome the highest number of independent MPs since 1950.

The Lib Dems saw a dramatic resurgence to form the third largest party – putting a significant dent in the Conservative seat share, particularly in the South West, Surrey, and Hertfordshire. Meanwhile, the electoral impact of Reform at this election cannot be understated, taking votes away from both Labour and the Conservatives in key marginal seats. Whilst Reform have only won four seats, including Nigel Farage being elected as MP for Clacton, they received over 4 million votes, and this had wide-reaching implications on the night. This particularly impacted the Conservatives, where in Conservative-Labour marginals the Reform vote share repeatedly resulted in Labour victory, and in the former ‘red wall’ (seats gained by the Conservatives in 2019), the Tories often fell into third place behind Labour and Reform. As a result, multiple well-known figures and members of the Cabinet such as Penny Mordaunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Liz Truss all lost their seats.

The demise of the SNP must also be noted, losing 38 seats and leaving the Scottish Nationals with a disappointing total of nine seats – and in doing so, significantly bolstering Labour’s parliamentary majority with its resurgence in Scotland.

What’s next?

Looking ahead to the rest of the day, we are expecting Rishi Sunak to formally tender his resignation to King Charles III in the coming hours, before vacating Downing Street. It is thought that the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, will then proceed to appoint his Cabinet later today from Number 10.

You would be forgiven for not putting the Liberal Democrats at the centre of your political radar before Rishi Sunak’s surprise election announcement. With only 15 MPs in the last parliament – a lasting hangover of the electorate’s reaction to their coalition days – the picture leading up to the campaign wasn’t necessarily pretty viewing.

However, a combination of anti-Conservative Party sentiment, efficient tactical voting, and Ed Davey’s willingness to take on attention-grabbing stunts, means that the outlook has become decidedly rosier. The latest MRP polls indicate that the Lib Dem Party is on course to return to pre-coalition numbers, a swing which could put them as the third largest in parliament.

Talking about the post-election landscape feels premature, however, spending some time in campaign HQ put me in amongst a team with a growing sense of optimism. With the nation heading to the polls in a few days, here are my key takeaways from a week in the Lib Dem press office.

Humanity at the heart of politics

The BBC Question Time Election Special was a priority during my week with the team. This was the last major debate of the election campaign and an important juncture for us to sense check the public’s sentiment towards the leaders of the UK’s four main parties.

Cutting clippings from the papers the following morning revealed that many journalists had pegged Ed as the overall winner on the night. There were tricky questions on tuition fees and coalition, yet his ability to acknowledge past mistakes was well received.

Manning the phones and press inbox, which seemed to be permanently pinging with requests for comment and 4pm deadlines, demonstrated the need for attention to detail. But these policies also show Ed’s passions and personality, stemming in large part from his life experiences, on everything from increasing carer’s allowance to cancer specialist nurses. In a political battleground mired in his cynicism, his conviction is striking, and shows that a human face is just as important for cutting through to the electorate.

Silliness and seriousness key to strategy

It’s no secret the Lib Dems have made the most of flashy stunts over the course of the campaign and that this is a strategic decision. From building sandcastles to whizzing down slides, Ed’s campaign timetable sought to ensure people would turn the volume up on the TVs as we watched Ed liven up the day of the designated journalist tasked with following the campaign trail.

Inevitable arguments ensue about the silliness of these stunts, but they do have a purpose. Every stunt is attached to an overarching policy, be it health or sewage or the environment.

On the flip side, perhaps Ed’s most powerful moment was also his most serious. The first election broadcast showing the care for his disabled son seems to have struck a real chord, amongst not just carers, but the wider electorate. With a manifesto heavily dominated by serious issues in the NHS and our health systems, there is a place for both seriousness and silliness in this campaign.

Quiet confidence and a camp united

Overall, it seems like the general mood at HQ is one of quiet confidence. Nobody is taking anything for granted, but there’s enough evidence to suggest the Lib Dem ranks will swell considerably once all the ballots are cast. From party veterans to first-time volunteers like myself, this is very much a happy camp; especially for those who have been through the dour campaigns of 2017 and 2019.

Almost a decade on from the 2015 election wipeout, the Lib Dems hope to return to parliament as an expanded force – potentially even, as some papers are suggesting, the official opposition. Holding the incoming government to account, particularly against a backdrop of little money and big policy issues, will be the next test to establish their credentials and find common ground amongst an increasingly divided nation.

In Nicky Morgan’s latest episode as host of the Vantage Point political podcast by Grayling, she speaks with Nathalie Brack, Professor of political science at the Cevipol, Université libre de Bruxelles and Visiting Professor at the College of Europe, and Jessica Brobald, Managing Director of Grayling Brussels.

On the day after the first round of the French parliamentary elections, the panel discuss:

🔹 the impact of the EU elections and the rise of the far-right

🔹 the key players holding the top jobs

🔹 significant issues the EU Commission and Parliament will focus on.

Listen now or head to our Spotify channel to listen to other episodes in the series.

By Evie Ryan & James Watson

Campaigning is just the beginning

With voter intention polls continuing to put Labour comfortably ahead, it’s looking increasingly likely that Sir Kier Starmer and Rachel Reeves find themselves at the helm of No. 10 and HM Treasury on Friday morning.

Reeves – if successful in becoming Chancellor – has already promised a Spending Review for the autumn. By then, any summer sun will have given way to colder and darker evenings, and the novelty of any potential success at the Euros will be long-gone. It’ll be time for the hard work to begin and Labour will find itself facing tough decisions.

Spending Reviews, a familiar fixture for Whitehall are often overlooked by the private sector compared to more headline-grabbing Fiscal Statements and Budgets. They’re important indicators for the economic factors behind governments decisions, and provide a helpful tool for long-term scene setting.

Forecasting four big challenges

Supported by the Office of Budget Responsibility and delivered in the same window as the Autumn Statement, the next Spending Review will set the tone for Labour’s first years in office. There is fourfold challenge building for Reeves in what the Review is likely to show about the UK economy, how this will impact public spending, and critically, what this will mean for delivering ‘change’ in the way Labour has been describing during the campaign.

• First, public debt is the highest it’s been since the 1960s, and the tax burden also at its highest since 1948. Compounding this, Labour has consistently promised not to raise corporation tax, income tax, VAT, or increase national insurance to fund spending. The ability to raise further public monies is, therefore, significantly constrained by the current economic reality and Labour’s election campaign pledges leave very little fiscal head room to increase spending in the short-to-medium term.
• Second, to find funding to carry out even some of its less ambitious plans, a Labour Government may need to either cut spending to specific departments or apply a very ‘constructive accounting’ approach. Labour HQ has, so far, shown some willingness to take a hard line on some areas of spending, evidenced by their unwillingness to axe the two-child benefits cap but, critically, there is zero mandate for drastically slashing departmental budgets, as opposed to the then incoming Coalition Government of 2010-2015.
• Third, Labour will need to navigate new ministers chomping at the bit to ensure their departments get a piece of the ever-limited fiscal pie. The prestige of a department, even those outside of the Great Offices of State (HMT, FCDO, Home Office), is in part defined by its spending limit and ability to enact policy and this will, in turn, enable or curtail ministers’ progression around the Cabinet table.
• Finally, the new Chancellor will likely be tempted to undertake an initial 1-year review, as opposed to a comprehensive multi-year programme, to manage the noted fiscal constraints. Both approaches offer benefits and challenges. The former is recommended by the Institute for Government and would give a Labour Government room for manoeuvre in the short-term with a view to focusing on immediate priorities and balancing the books. However, this approach would curtail the medium-to-long term certainty needed for public services and the market. The latter approach would provide longer-term clarity, but could box a future Labour Government into plans that are either unachievable or require adjustment which could, in turn, impact their credibility.

In for a penny, shuffling around the pounds

Labour is already laying the groundwork to tackle challenges heading its way. Sector expertise and access to institutional capital are critical to Labour’s plans for growth and reducing the pressure on the Treasury.  A lot lies with tapping into the private sector and aiming to create the right environment to attract investment, so that government and industry together can invest in public initiatives as well as infrastructure.

Dedicated government funds and new bodies, such as GB Energy and the National Wealth Fund (NWF) are designed to crowd in investment and set the direction of travel. Importantly, business, as the co-pilot in Labour’s vehicle of ‘Change’, will be encouraged to pick up the costs of projects and programmes that sit outside the gift of the Government’s purse but will reap the dividends of growth so long as they conform to Labour’s flight plan for UK plc.

Labour has been working hard to build the relationships needed to put this approach into action. It has already stood up a Taskforce, led by the Green Finance Institute and Brookfield Asset Management, to advise on delivery of its planned £7.3bn National Wealth Fund. This fund will be expected to crowd in at least £3 from the private sector for every £1 invested by the state, with a focus on driving growth in key sectors to ‘reindustrialise’ Britain[i]. Alongside the NWF, Labour has established its British Infrastructure Council (BIC) to assemble leading finance organisations to support the drive for investment.

Both the Fund and the BIC exemplify Labour’s new era of public-private partnership and an effort to get business working for Britain and reduce demand on its coffers.

Reeves’ Global Investment Summit, due to occur within the first 100 days of a Labour Government, offers another glimpse into Labour’s plan to encourage the flow of foreign capital to UK shores. The agenda for this event remains unclear but it will likely mirror similar summits hosted by the Tory Government in recent years, which have reaped significant amounts of capital.

Factoring in the forecast  

Ultimately, the Spending Review is going to confront the new Labour Government with difficult decisions within the first few weeks of its tenure. The recent report from the Institute of Fiscal Studies is stark in laying out the scale of this challenge[1]. With the Party committed against an austere approach to spending, it is placing its future success on being able to incentivise enhanced private investment, and crucially, do this at pace.

The Party knows it can factor in reduced headroom for now, what’s less certain is its ability to encourage growth in the way it requires to give more room for the subsequent Reviews and fiscal events over the next five years.

There is clearly an opportunity for businesses of all shapes and sizes to support these plans, even without large reserves of capital. Labour is keenly aware that they don’t have all the answers to public spending and will be looking to industry to provide the sectoral insight and expertise necessary to target investment in the right areas and encourage growth.

Engagement with a Labour Government will be critical in its First 100 Days. Industry should look to the likely consultations on the NWF, GB Energy and all the other initiatives that Reeves will wish to undertake as opportunities to influence how these are shaped, and should not be missed.

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/e529148e-01b4-4fe9-af43-c8c54807c58b

[i] https://www.cityam.com/national-wealth-fund-will-help-create-650000-jobs-over-five-years-reeves-says/

Come Friday, if the polls are correct, we will see a vast redrawing of the electoral map. Where seats are retained and where they change hands will be instructive in analysing what went wrong, or right, for the campaigns and for getting an early sense of the trends that will develop over the course of the Parliament.

English seats to watch

For Labour simply to become the largest party in the House of Commons, a national swing of eight points is needed, which would see places like Chelsea & Fulham, Bournemouth East and Stevenage return Labour MPs. If Labour is on track for an outright majority, Conservative seats like Buckingham & Bletchley, Basingstoke, Great Grimsby, and Cleethorpes will need to comfortably fall into their column, with swings of some 12 points.

With the polls and commentary leaning heavily towards an enormous Labour landslide, it’s easy to forget that the 12.7 swing the party needs for a majority of just one MP would be larger than Tony Blair secured in 1997. Just a year ago, this was still seen as a major obstacle for Labour. Now it’s looking more than achievable. In large part this is due to the party regaining support that it haemorrhaged in 2019, as voters across the midlands and north rejected Jeremy Corbyn and rewarded Boris Johnson for his commitment to Brexit. If Labour wins seats in the north west, such as Burnley, Bury (south and north) and Bolton North West, then it will feel confident that the so-called “Red Wall” is being rebuilt.

The Liberal Democrats are likely to achieve around the same popular vote as the 2019 general election – 11.6 %. Five years ago, this translated to just 11 MPs, but now, thanks to a fall in support for the Conservatives in the south east and south west, better distribution of their votes, and by encouraging tactical voting, they could more than quadruple their representation in Parliament. They will be targeting seats in Conservative heartlands in the south like the seats of Justice Secretary Alex Chalk in Cheltenham and Science Secretary Michelle Donelan in Chippenham.

Nigel Farage’s return to UK politics has complicated matters significantly for the Conservatives. Farage is now likely to overturn a massive Conservative majority in Clacton, and Lee Anderson is on course to win Ashfield. Reform could pick up Great Yarmouth, Louth and Horncastle, and Basildon and Billericay all from the Conservatives. More importantly, Reform is polling second in some 125 constituencies and could see them challenge in Barnsley North, South Holland and The Deepings, Havant, and Folkestone and Hythe, splitting the right wing vote and potentially paving the way for Labour or the Liberal Democrats if they aren’t successful themselves.

What next?

Much of the focus on Thursday evening will be on the here and now, but the detail of the results will have ramifications that go beyond an immediate change in government. If the Conservatives are wiped out, they will need to pick their leader from a pool of possibly fewer than 100 MPs, which may not include leadership hopefuls like Grant Shapps and Penny Mourdant. Whoever prevails will have the daunting task of rebuilding the party so it can begin to be electorally competitive again whilst defending its right flank from, potentially, Nigel Farage MP.

For Labour, it will be looking closely at its margin of victory in target seats. A spread of very narrow victories may cause nervousness in the party as it looks for signs that it can secure at least two terms in office. The size of MPs’ majorities can also provide clues as to how they will behave in Parliament: new MPs who narrowly won may be caught between party loyalty and being an outspoken constituency champion to shore up their local support, leading to potential mid-term challenges for Starmer.

For businesses, working with so many new MPs will bring fresh opportunities and challenges. Many longstanding policy experts will no longer be in place, and the task will begin anew to identify potential advocates and detractors.

For advice and support in this new political era, get in touch with Grayling’s Head of Public Affairs, Alan Boyd-Hall.

Stay ahead of the conversation with the Election Radar, a cutting-edge newsletter. As we approach the finishing line of the General Election, our daily updates will provide you with a comprehensive summary of the online discourse of the previous day, capturing the pulse of public sentiment, key topics and actionable data.

Delivered to your inbox daily leading up to the election and summarising the trends and shifts in public dialogue in the first 100 days of the new Government, this free service ensures you never miss a beat.

Using our advanced listening dashboards, we filter and analyse data by party, manifesto topic, and industry, drawing invaluable insights.

Don’t miss this opportunity to stay informed and ahead of the curve. Sign up for the Election Radar today and consider engaging with our Digi team for bespoke digital listening projects, tailored to your needs across all sectors. We are ready to help you navigate the digital landscape effectively.

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We are heading towards the finishing line in this marathon election campaign. But, to mix my sporting metaphors, I don’t think there is going to be a late goal to rescue Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party from the jaws of defeat. Not that I’m sure that Sunak wants rescuing. Yes, he has been out on the campaign trail every day, but with little enthusiasm or vigour. He looks miserable and probably can’t wait for it all to end on Friday.

He is working on the assumption that Labour will win a big majority. We will see the Conservatives double down on their warning of the dangers of a Labour “supermajority” and the shock news that once in power the Labour Party will try to win another term. They are focusing their attention and resources on their heartlands to ensure they secure at least 100 seats and protect the likes of Jeremy Hunt, Gillian Keegan and Penny Mordaunt whose hitherto safe seats are looking vulnerable.

Conservative Strategy

Some of those Conservative big players are being threatened by the Liberal Democrats who will be outright winners of the “how many times can we drench the leader” award of the national campaign, but who have been playing very effective campaigns locally. They have run carefully targeted campaigns in Conservative-held seats in the south and south-west of England, picking up support from Labour voters by being explicit on the need for tactical voting. We should expect them to oust a few major players on Thursday.

Reform UK

Reform UK is also expecting a Labour win and will be using the next few days to woo Conservative voters with the message that the party is a spent force and Reform will be the most effective opposition. While this may appeal to some Conservative waverers, others will be put off by yet more revelations of racism and misogyny among candidates and activists.

Scotland

In Scotland, where boundary changes mean the number of seats in Westminster goes from 59 to 57, the Scottish National Party, which held 43 seats, is also assuming it will lose seats to Labour (which had just two). It is now campaigning on the basis that if wins 29 seats, it would be a mandate for independence. Some might say that losing 14 seats wouldn’t be a mandate for anything, let alone independence.

In fact, the only party not assuming a Labour victory is the Labour Party. Keir Starmer and his team are determinedly not counting any chickens. Many of them will have still be haunted by the memory of 1992 (when Labour under Neil Kinnock unexpectedly lost), but for all of them it is about keeping clear heads and sticking to their plan. It may be a little dull, but it is this approach that has been responsible for the huge change in the party since the time of the last general election when big promises made by a populist leader were not believed by the electorate. So, don’t expect any changes in strategy from Starmer and co.

What we will see is them urging people to vote, not to assume that it is a done deal. Contending with voter apathy has always been an issue across parties, but now with record low levels of public trust in politics, getting its vote out is going to be its biggest challenge over the next few days if Labour is to secure victory.

Labour’s likely ascendency to controlling the UK Government will bring fresh challenges to the devolved administrations. Grayling’s team of experts have been analysing what an incoming Labour administration might mean for the governing parties in each nation and how it may impact future election outcomes.

Scotland: Can Labour rebuild its reputation?

By Ross Laird, Head of Scotland

The expectation of a Labour majority in Westminster will be largely come at the expense of the SNP. Many of the key battlegrounds lie across the Central Belt in what will swiftly become the territorial dispute between the two parties in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2026.

Make no mistake, all of the political parties in Scotland are entering the General Election campaign with an eye towards building momentum for 2026. That means that there will be little love lost between the SNP and Labour. The SNP will be keen to continue to lay the blame for cutbacks and austerity at Westminster’s door and start to rebuild their narrative after the General Election.

Constitutionally, there are likely to be continued disputes between London and Edinburgh. However, with less than two years between now and the 2026 election and the collapse of the deal with the Scottish Green Party, the scope for the kind of legislative disputes we’ve seen in the past (notably the deposit return scheme and gender recognition) are much reduced.

From Labour’s perspective, this will be an opportunity for the Party to rebuild its position as the dominant force in Scottish politics. Douglas Alexander’s expected return will give the sense that Scottish Labour’s big hitters are back and the promised location of Great British Energy in Scotland will be keenly watched. Ultimately, Glasgow remains the largest political prize, both in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections and the local government elections thereafter, so expect to see a flurry of announcements from Labour that demonstrate their commitment to the city.

Wales: Will Keir Starmer’s win spell the end for Vaughan Gething’s premiership?

By Siân Jones, Head of Wales

Labour’s long Welsh winning streak shows every sign of continuing at this election, but we can expect internal Party debates to continue over the future of the beleaguered Welsh First Minister, Vaughan Gething. Gething has long been considered the preferred candidate of UK Labour, but Starmer will need to consider how tenable the First Minister’s position is as Labour head into the Party Conference season.

Having brought the Co-Operation Agreement between the parties to an early end, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth will have his eyes fixed on the 2026 Senedd elections. This leaves Gething, who recently lost a Senedd confidence vote in his leadership, struggling to get his Budget through – a problem amplified by Rhiannon Passmore’s suspension from the Labour Group this week.

With Rachel Reeves’ strict spending plans and lack of firm commitment to reform the Barnett Formula, there’s likely to be little change in funding allocated to Wales in the short term, meaning scant relief for the creaking Welsh NHS. Meanwhile, the pressure to resolve the steel crisis at Port Talbot will be considerable.

There may be some improvement – at least superficially – in functioning intergovernmental relations, with the proposed Council for the Nations and Regions providing a new forum. However, UK Labour are treading carefully on the question of further devolution, particularly over whether control over structural funds will move to the Welsh Government or other Welsh ‘representatives’, as stated in the manifesto.

We can expect a united front from UK and Welsh Labour for now, with a spate of joint announcements and visits in newly won seats – particularly those that showcase their shared commitment to skills, jobs and the green economy. But, over time, conflict may well reemerge over funding – and who determines where it goes.

Northern Ireland: How does Labour keep Northern Ireland’s devolution running?

By Richard Hunter, Northern Ireland analyst

Voters in Northern Ireland will go to the polls with a power-sharing Executive and Assembly in place, for the first time since the Assembly election in May 2016, four Prime Ministers ago. Maintaining those institutions and providing stability will be the key priority for any incoming government but, with the DUP potentially facing losses of Westminster seats and further leadership turmoil, stable leadership within Northern Ireland may be hard to come by.

With an urgent crisis in Northern Ireland’s health service and disputes over a fair fiscal formula for Northern Ireland, demands for funding for frontline services are likely to confront the new Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. With spending tightly constrained at a UK level, we can expect a dispute over the Executive parties’ unwillingness to raise more revenue locally, as well as over the costs of specific projects, including the renovation of Casement Park to host matches at Euro 2028.

The parties are, however, united in their desire for the repeal of the UK Government’s legislation regarding the legacy of the Troubles, which is opposed by all five main NI parties and committed to by Labour. Labour’s policies on closer alignment with the EU on veterinary regulation and carbon pricing also have the potential to remove post-Brexit trade frictions between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, which will be welcomed across the Northern Irish economy.

With Irish elections expected within months, Sinn Féin and the Irish Government will remain on an election footing after the new UK Government takes office, while a new European Commission is yet to be formed for trade negotiations. While there may be a more diverse delegation of Northern Irish MPs in the Commons to hold him to account, there will be no quick and easy answers on Northern Ireland for a Labour Government.

As with any election campaign, a key issue that arises time and again on the doorstep and in TV debates is voters’ trust in politics. Moments like the expenses scandal 15 years ago and Partygate more recently have done untold damage to the public’s faith in our elected representatives, and trust is at a 40-year low.

Conservative Betting Scandal

If voters were beginning to forget past sins, the emergence in the last week of allegations that a number of senior Conservatives, including two candidates and possibly a Cabinet minister, had placed bets on the date of the election have brought sleaze back to the fore at the worst possible time for the Conservatives. Interventions by party bigwigs, including Michael Gove’s comments that the gambling scandal is perpetuating a sense that it’s “one rule for them, one rule for us”, are adding to the feeling that this is a party on the verge of collapse.

Labour’s Trust Challenges

Labour strategists may be delighted that this has fallen into their lap so close to polling day, but a common view heard by colleagues on the doorstep is that “they’re all the same”. While the gambling scandal may have short term benefits for the party hoping to govern, many voters will view these latest indiscretions as simply emblematic of a wider malaise.

Meanwhile, the Labour Party is not immune to questions about its own integrity. Voters have expressed misgivings about how much they could trust Sir Keir Starmer given his support for the then Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, in 2019. Starmer has since disavowed almost all of Corbyn’s policy platform and argues that he was campaigning for Labour with absolute certainty that Corbyn had no chance of winning the election – an awkward defence that in a tighter race may have caused Starmer significant difficulty.

Liberal Democrats’ Haunted Past

Sir Ed Davey will be delighted that his stunt-heavy campaign has given the Liberal Democrats a platform to build a very respectable result, so he may have been somewhat stunned to have the party’s infamous election pledge to abolish tuition fees of 14 years ago thrown at him at Question Time on Thursday evening. Having courted young people during that campaign, that betrayal of voters’ trust was and continues to be keenly felt.

Farage and Reform UK

Nigel Farage, the perennial “outsider”, clearly sees himself as the beneficiary of the decline in voters’ trust, accusing the Conservatives of betraying Brexit by failing to implement it “properly” and arguing that blue and red are indistinguishable. For someone who has never had to compromise in government or even sat in Parliament, this is a simple game to play. What’s more, potential Reform voters don’t seem to be put off by the serious holes found in Reform UK’s manifesto. They know Reform UK won’t form any part in government, so, at least for now, it seems the trust voters place in the party can be repaid simply by Farage continuing to be Farage.

Trust is an essential ingredient for a stable and productive politics with which voters and businesses can constructively engage. With not long to go in this campaign, it’s incumbent on all parties to prevent further damage to faith in politics and policymaking, and each new and returning MP will have their part to play.

To keep up to date with the latest news and views on the UK General Election, head to our Hub for more insights.

It is fair to say that nobody expected FMCG policy to be front-and-centre of an election campaign dominated by economic growth and immigration, but as the UK closes in on polling day, what could be in store for the sector?

With a recent IPSOS poll estimating Labour could win 453 seats, it is as certain as things can be in politics that Keir Starmer will become the next Prime Minister, with the bookies overwhelmingly backing a majority government. With this relative comfort, Starmer opted to last week publish a broad brush ‘fully costed’ manifesto consisting almost entirely of existing pledges.

More stick than carrot for HFSS?

From an FMCG perspective Labour’s Shadow Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, has long advocated for tighter HFSS regulation to address preventable health conditions and reduce the burden on the NHS – previously pledging to “use the heavy hand of state regulation” to improve public health.

With that said, perhaps Labour’s manifesto is only the tip of the iceberg. The key headline was a commitment to ban the sale of energy drinks to under-16’s – a pledge dropped by the Tories over fears of reneging to a nanny state, despite many UK retailers already enforcing a voluntary ban. Other policies of note include banning junk food advertising to children, restricting the advertising of vapes, and a continuation of Sunak’s plan to create a smoke-free generation. Little detail on how these would be implemented was included.

An encore for the King of Leon?

There have been whisperings around Westminster that Labour will revive Henry Dimbleby’s National Food Strategy, which would leave Starmer with a fine balancing act between incentivising healthier lifestyle choices and mandating measures which could drive up food inflation. Streeting himself has pledged to ‘steamroller’ the food and drink industry with measures to tackle HFSS and ultra-processed foods (UPFs) – assuming a Labour victory, Streeting will certainly be one for the watchlist for promotion during any reshuffle.

Beer, wine and Number 10 (again)

A promise by Keir Starmer to hold one fiscal event per year will provide light relief for the UK’s beer, wine and spirits industries, who continue to live budget-to-budget on excise duty regimes. This includes a raft of reforms announced in 2023 (coming into force in Feb 2025) to tax all alcohol by ABV which presents significant challenges for the wine industry (mainly SMEs and importers), who face the burden of preparing for 29 new tax bands.

Despite no pledges to freeze duties making their way into the manifesto, both Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves have hinted support for a freeze to beer duty as part of the party’s plan to breathe new life back into the UK’s high streets. As we’ve come to expect with Reeves in charge of the coffers, this support doesn’t come without the caveat that anything in a future Finance Bill must be within strict fiscal rules.

Defra – a department in flux?

Perhaps most worryingly for businesses seeking clarity over the direction of travel for recycling reforms – including Deposit Return Schemes (DRS), Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)– is the distinct lack of detail on waste and resource policy. The only nod coming in the form of a generic ambition to reduce waste by moving to a circular economy.

It is no secret that Defra has been struggling to progress its waste and resource reforms, and it seems likely the department is earmarked for its own reforms under a potential Labour Government. While there is a clear opportunity to engage with a party which hasn’t yet formed a concrete position, there is the risk that new impetus in the department could lead to rash decision-making by Labour’s policy team.

As we await the result of July 4^th, businesses across the FMCG sector should use the period to align their strategy and messaging to Labour Party priorities, preparing to engage by providing pragmatic solutions and offering front-line business insights into the impacts of specific policies.

To speak to our FMCG sector specialists about how we can support your business during this year of political change, please contact Michael Broughton (michael.broughton@grayling.com).