The escalating conflict in Iran and the wider Middle East is sending shockwaves through international energy markets just as Scotland approaches a pivotal Holyrood election on May 7.

Against this backdrop, Scotland’s energy future is being shaped not only by global events, but by a domestic political landscape that is becoming more fragmented and less predictable.

Scotland already sits at the heart of the UK’s energy system. The North Sea accounts for around 90% of UK oil production and roughly half of its natural gas supply, while renewable generation continues to expand. Maintaining that leadership will depend on policy stability for investors, a managed transition for the North Sea basin and ensuring the benefits of a just transition reach communities across Scotland.

The SNP-led Scottish Government continues to lead in the polls but is expected to fall short of an outright majority, potentially winning fewer than 65 of the 129 seats. This raises questions over the stability of the next Parliament and the SNP’s ability to deliver its energy agenda without securing a working majority with previous Budget partners such as the Scottish Greens or Liberal Democrats.

At the same time, the outcome of the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA), which will shape the UK’s regulatory and pricing framework for the power sector, is expected shortly and could prove a significant influence.

Energy as an election issue

Energy policy is emerging as a defining issue in the Holyrood campaign. The SNP, widely expected to secure a record fifth term, has framed energy within a broader cost-of-living message through the ‘It’s Scotland’s Energy’ campaign, arguing that independence and full control of energy policy would help lower bills and accelerate the clean energy transition.

At the same time, the SNP continues to oppose new nuclear and supports a climate compatibility test for new oil and gas developments, with First Minister John Swinney attempting to balance calls for growth and decarbonisation.

A shifting energy policy landscape

While Scotland’s transition to clean energy remains a key priority for most parties in the current Scottish Parliament, there is an increasing focus on resilience, affordability and domestic production.

For energy companies, this election is highly consequential. The rise of Reform UK, consistently topping polls ahead of Labour at UK level, and on course to be the second largest party in Scotland, introduces a new variable. Reform UK Scotland’s stance against current net zero policies and support for expanded oil and gas production could disrupt the country’s established trajectory of investment in renewables.

That uncertainty matters. Investors are not just watching who wins, but how stable and coherent policy direction will be. A fragmented outcome risks slowing decision-making and delaying investment, while a clear mandate could unlock capital.

Offshore wind at a crossroads

Wind already dominates Scotland’s renewable generation, and ScotWind projects promise significant new capacity and investment. Offshore wind is central to Scotland’s energy future, with ambitions of up to 40GW forming a cornerstone of the Scottish Government’s 2045 net zero target.

However, momentum is not guaranteed. Recent moves by major players, including Shell, to divest stakes in ScotWind projects have raised questions about viability and long-term returns.

Delivery will also depend on the outcomes of the UK Government’s upcoming Contracts for Difference (CfD) Clean Industry Bonus Allocation Rounds 8 (AR8) and 9 (AR9). If projects fail to secure contracts at these stages, there is a real risk that deployment slows significantly, with Scotland’s offshore wind pipeline stalling before it reaches scale.

If that happens, the consequences would be significant: climate targets would become harder to meet, supply chain opportunities may shift overseas, and Scotland’s wider energy leadership could come under increased pressure.

The North Sea returns to the spotlight

For more than half a century, the North Sea has underpinned Scotland’s industrial economy. Today, projects such as Rosebank and Cambo remain at the centre of debate over climate commitments and domestic production.

With Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership under increasing pressure amid expected electoral setbacks in Scotland, Wales and English local elections, the escalating Iran conflict is adding to calls for the UK Government to accelerate existing oil and gas licences in the name of energy security and cost-of-living pressures. For now, however, the UK Government has reiterated its commitment to its clean energy ambitions.

Rising expectations for community benefit

Public attitudes will also shape political choices. Grayling Energy’s Power, Perception and Progress report suggests Scots broadly see themselves as potential winners from the transition, with strong support for offshore wind and energy jobs.

However, that support is becoming more conditional. Cost of living pressures and perceptions of energy overdevelopment have contributed to growing community opposition in parts of rural Scotland, which could prove influential in key constituencies in the Highlands and Scottish Borders.

This is accelerating a shift in expectations around community benefit. The Scottish Government expects developers to deliver higher, more consistent and better-governed benefits that create substantial and long-term community value. There is also growing emphasis on shared ownership, giving communities a direct financial stake as part of a just transition.

For industry, this presents both opportunity and risk: stronger community partnerships can improve outcomes, but moving too far, particularly towards mandatory ownership, could deter investment or slow delivery if not carefully designed.

How can the next Scottish Parliament maintain Scotland’s position as the UK’s energy powerhouse?

The choices facing Scotland’s next Parliament will shape the energy system for decades, with significant implications for investors, developers and communities alike.

To explore these issues further, Grayling Energy is hosting a cross-party breakfast panel ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections in Edinburgh on Tuesday 24^th March. Leading MSPs and candidates will outline their parties’ energy priorities before opening the discussion to audience questions.

This is an opportunity for the energy sector to engage directly with the parties which will shape Scotland’s energy system for decades to come.

This event is free. To register your interest please email andrew.henderson@grayling.com