By Áron Szászi & István Jákó

After 16 years of Fidesz dominance, Hungary’s political landscape has undergone a fundamental transformation. The previously fragmented opposition space has been replaced by a two-bloc contest between Fidesz and Péter Magyar’s TISZA Party. This structural shift effectively dismantles the earlier model of a “fragmented opposition vs. dominant government” and may result in a more balanced political competition.

The average of publicly available polls indicates a tight race, with TISZA currently leading by around 5 percentage points (47% vs. 42%), which could translate into a narrow parliamentary majority given Hungary’s electoral system. At the same time, the polling landscape remains highly divided: non-government-affiliated pollsters show a larger TISZA lead, while government-linked institutes continue to measure a stable, albeit narrowing Fidesz advantage.

The composition of the next parliament could differ significantly from previous cycles, as the party system is consolidating into a two-bloc structure. Both government-affiliated and non-government affiliated pollsters measure that the far-right Our Homeland has enough support to surpass the 5% parliamentary threshold, while traditional left-wing parties are likely to fail to enter parliament altogether. Expert scenario models suggest that the most likely outcome is a TISZA-led government, though a Fidesz victory or a hung parliament remain plausible.

Security in a turbulent world vs. long-awaited change

The campaign environment may prove to be one of the most volatile and contentious in Hungary since the democratic transition. It is characterised by low trust in polling, widespread claims of foreign interference, political scandals, and the growing role of AI-driven disinformation. These factors have the potential to erode trust in institutions and contribute to an increasingly polarised and emotionally charged electorate. They also heighten the risk of post-election disputes and political conflict.

Campaign strategies differ sharply between the two main contenders. Fidesz focuses its messaging on geopolitical security issues, pursuing a hardline anti-Ukraine narrative, while TISZA emphasises domestic challenges such as economic stagnation, deteriorating public services, and systemic corruption. Public opinion data suggests that voters are more concerned with the country’s economic situation, the state of healthcare and the level of corruption, which strengthens the challenger’s narrative.

What this means for businesses

For businesses, continuous monitoring of the political and regulatory environment will be essential. The election outcome could significantly influence economic policy, EU relations, and regulatory predictability. A TISZA-led government would likely be interpreted positively by markets as a signal of improved relations with Brussels and the possibility of securing the currently frozen EU funds that could substantially boost the Hungarian economy. In contrast, a Fidesz victory would ensure continuity but likely maintain an interventionist and less predictable policy environment.

Businesses should be aware that in the event of a close election, the losing side may contest the legitimacy of the results. This could lead to a prolonged and conflictual government formation process and increased political instability, particularly if institutional actors engage in legal or administrative obstruction.

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