End of an era: TISZA’s mandate for systemic change

By Samu Märcz (COO, PA Director), Áron Szászi (Senior PA Consultant), István Jákó (Junior PA Consiltant)

Hungary has entered a definitive new chapter. The 2026 parliamentary elections delivered a historic political shift, ending Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule and ushering in a new governing force with an unprecedented mandate.

The opposition TISZA Party, led by Péter Magyar, secured a decisive victory with around 52% of the vote and 137 out of 199 parliamentary seats (as of 15 April, 14:00), enough for a constitutional supermajority. This not only marks a change in government, but a fundamental reshaping of Hungary’s political landscape. Recounts and legal challenges are pending until 20 April at the latest, but TISZA’s supermajority is highly unlikely to be reversed.

A consolidated political system

The election signals a dramatic realignment: as voters consolidated overwhelmingly behind a single opposition force, the long-dominant Fidesz–KDNP alliance suffered a historic defeat, dropping to around 39.5% and just 56 seats (as of 15 April, 14:00).

Parliament is now more streamlined than at any point since the democratic transition: aside from centre-right TISZA and right-wing Fidesz, only the far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) entered the legislature. Notably, no traditional left-wing party crossed the threshold – a first in modern Hungarian politics.

Voter turnout approached 80%, the highest on record, reflecting both the stakes of the election and an unusually high level of political mobilisation.

A mandate for accountability and investigating corruption

TISZA’s victory is widely interpreted as a mandate for systemic change. The party successfully positioned itself as a credible alternative, attracting disillusioned government voters, uniting fragmented opposition groups, and mobilising previously inactive citizens.

With a constitutional majority, Péter Magyar now has the tools to pursue sweeping institutional reforms. His campaign and victory statements emphasise restoring democratic checks and balances, strengthening independent institutions, and tackling corruption.

This includes commitments to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office and establish a new institution to recover the allegedly illicitly acquired assets of government-linked figures.

TISZA pledges comprehensive institutional reforms

Despite its strong mandate, the incoming government faces a complex governing environment. Entrenched institutional structures built over the past decade and a half may limit the pace and scope of reform to some extent, even with a supermajority.

Magyar has already signalled his intention to replace key figures in oversight institutions and has called on senior officeholders, including President of Hungary, Tamás Sulyok, to step down. However, legal and constitutional constraints, particularly a Fidesz-appointed Constitutional Court, could complicate these efforts. The broader challenge will be balancing rapid reform with democratic legitimacy, ensuring that institutional change is seen as restoration rather than political replacement.

At his post-election press conference, Péter Magyar outlined TISZA’s agenda focused on institutional reform, anti-corruption, media freedom, and a pro-European shift. He pledged a two-term limit for prime ministers (retroactively applied to bar PM Orbán), a less centralized governing style, and sweeping changes to restore checks and balances, including new anti-corruption bodies and reforms to public institutions.

Magyar also promised to dismantle the Fidesz-affiliated media landscape, ensure civil liberties, maintain strict migration policies, and pursue pragmatic but more Western-aligned foreign relations. He strongly criticized the outgoing government for economic mismanagement, state capture, and propaganda, framing the election as both a political turning point and a reaffirmation of Hungary’s place in Europe.

A foreign policy reset

The election outcome also marks a significant shift in Hungary’s international orientation. Magyar has clearly signalled a return to the European mainstream, pledging that Hungary will once again be a “strong ally” within the EU and NATO.

This implies a departure from the previous government’s more Russia- and China-friendly stance and a renewed focus on rebuilding ties with Western partners. Re-engagement with EU institutions will be particularly critical, not least to unlock frozen EU funds and support economic recovery. Magyar, however, also emphasizes that he will maintain a pragmatic relationship with all countries, including Russia and China.

Transition and what comes next

Given the major electoral gap, transition of power is expected to be orderly, with the new government likely taking office by mid-May. While Orbán has conceded defeat, political tensions are unlikely to disappear. Fidesz is expected to challenge the legitimacy and direction of the new leadership, setting the stage for a contentious political environment.

Looking ahead, the real test lies in how TISZA uses its supermajority. The party has the capacity to amend or even replace Hungary’s constitutional framework, but its political mandate is rooted in promises of democratisation, transparency, and accountability.

The key question is not whether the new government can act, but whether it can do so in a way that is legally sound, politically credible, and visibly democratic.

What this means for businesses?

For the coming months, companies should focus on monitoring the political and sectoral policy environment. Businesses could expect volatility as TISZA uses its supermajority to replace key officeholders, carry out major constitutional changes, redesign institutions, and review decisions linked to the previous system.

In the long-term, a strategic recalculation of industrial policy, FDI incentive structures, and the overall fiscal framework is expected. Prior to the elections, TISZA signalled its intention to pursue a less interventionist economic policy. This could include a willingness to phase out Orbán-era, sector-specific windfall taxes, as well as a shift away from offering generous subsidies to foreign investors, particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, existing subsidy agreements are expected to be honoured, and windfall taxes will likely remain in place in the short term due to significant budgetary pressures.

From a market perspective, the most favourable development would be the swift unlocking of suspended EU funds, contingent on the implementation of substantial institutional reforms. With regard to the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), a critical deadline looms in August and is unlikely to be extended. As such, much will depend on the rapid formation of a Magyar-led government and the clarity and credibility of its plans for fund absorption and allocation.

Another key commitment of Magyar with significant business implications is joining the Eurozone. While this may be achievable within 4–5 years, it would require substantial fiscal consolidation.