Bulgaria’s prolonged period of conservative governance, dominating much of the political landscape between 2009 and early 2026, has fostered deep-seated social tensions, rooted primarily in perceptions of endemic corruption and the concentration of power among a narrow circle of political and economic elites. These pressures were evident in public opinion data well before they culminated in the mass protests of late 2025, which brought latent discontent forcefully into the open. The ensuing political crisis precipitated the resignation of the government and triggered yet another cycle of early elections – the latest in a series of repeated early elections in recent years.

Reading the shape of Radev’s government

Against this backdrop, President Rumen Radev made the decision to resign from office and establish his own political entity. In the parliamentary elections held on 19 April, his newly formed “Progressive Bulgaria” coalition secured a decisive victory, achieving an absolute majority in the National Assembly marking the first single-party majority in decades. The new parliament is expected to convene within days, with the formation of a single-party government anticipated after the vote. Progressive Bulgaria will hold 131 MPs. The liberal We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) coalition has 37 representatives, while the conservative GERB party has 39 seats, with their partners from the MRF holding 21. The nationalist Revival party has also crossed the 4% threshold, securing 12 MPs.

Attention now turns to the orientation and governing style of this incoming administration. Yet, despite Radev’s high public profile, relatively little is known about the inner workings of his political circle or the policy instincts of his closest advisers. Some insight, however, may be gleaned from his tenure as president.

During nearly two full terms in office, Radev appointed eight caretaker governments. While the earliest of these were shaped by political necessity and compromise with incumbent forces, some administrations bore a more distinct presidential imprint, often staffed by figures drawn from his own advisory apparatus. It is therefore reasonable to expect that several of these individuals will assume ministerial roles in the forthcoming cabinet. Notably, these interim governments were characterized by administrative stability rather than reformist zeal, leaving little legacy in terms of policy innovation though they played a stabilising role during repeated electoral cycles.

A pragmatic foreign policy with European continuity

In foreign policy, despite persistent allegations of alignment with Moscow, Radev has generally maintained a measured and pragmatic stance. His administrations consistently adhered to the common positions of the European Union, suggesting a degree of continuity in Bulgaria’s external orientation. Nevertheless, Radev has been an outspoken advocate for diplomatic engagement in the context of the war in Ukraine, reflecting his conviction that a durable resolution cannot be achieved through military means alone.

Domestically, Radev is expected to maintain a cautious distance from established party structures, with the possible exception of cooperation with the liberal bloc We continue the change – Democratic Bulgaria, whose parliamentary support may prove essential for advancing comprehensive judicial reform although a formal majority reduces immediate reliance on coalition partners. As is customary in Bulgarian politics, significant personnel changes within law enforcement agencies are likely.

Economically, Bulgaria continues to register modest growth despite a challenging external environment. The incoming government is likely to preserve the broad contours of existing policy, including targeted energy subsidies and limited protectionist measures within the framework permitted by EU regulations. The question of whether to overhaul leadership within key independent regulatory bodies, spanning energy, telecommunications, competition, and consumer protection, remains open. While personnel changes are conceivable, a shift in regulatory philosophy appears unlikely, particularly given that many past decisions by these bodies have withstood judicial scrutiny.

A cautious approach to the green transition

Radev has consistently positioned himself as a proponent of European re-industrialisation and has signalled openness to foreign investment aligned with this objective. However, his record in the energy sector suggests a more interventionist inclination. During his presidency, he exercised veto powers to impede aspects of market liberalisation and certain legislative initiatives related to renewable energy investment, particularly in solar power.

His scepticism towards elements of the EU’s environmental agenda is well documented, and is reinforced by the economic interests of segments of his support base in coal mining and conventional electricity generation. Taken together with the structural characteristics of Bulgaria’s energy market, these factors point towards a policy trajectory marked more by continuity than by transformation. Radev’s administration is likely to advocate at the European level for a postponement or recalibration of regulatory burdens on the industry – an approach consistent with his broader economic and strategic outlook.

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