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Vantage Point Podcast: Anne Robinson and Nicky Morgan

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Anne Robinson and Nicky Morgan podcast episode

Nicky Morgan and Anne Robinson on the advantage of taking three daily newspapers, and how a pause can electrify political debate

In Nicky Morgan’s latest episode as host of the Vantage Point political podcast by Grayling, she sits down with journalist and broadcaster Anne Robinson.

Known worldwide for her acerbic wit, Anne famously hosted The Weakest Link in the UK and the US and was the first ever woman to regularly edit a national newspaper, the Daily Mirror. 

Looking back on Anne’s career to date, the discussion takes in a bumper election year, the shifting nature of political coverage and memories of covering three Thatcher elections.

You can listen to the full episode on all major podcast platforms including Spotify.

 

Conservative Party Conference 2024: “Tell us all today if you know the way to blue”

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Conservative Party Conference speaker on stage in front of audience

After a busy few days in his hometown for Conservative Party Conference, Grayling’s Marcus Boyle provides an insight into the mood of the party, the state of the leadership race, and what could be next for the Conservatives. 

 

Going into Conservative Party Conference, there was an expectation amongst many that it would resemble a wake as the party licks its wounds following the mauling it suffered at the General Election.  

A Surprising Mood Shift: Optimism in Birmingham 

The mood on the ground in Birmingham, however, was cautiously upbeat and optimistic. Less than three months into a new Labour government, engulfed by a donations scandal and internal spats about policy and personnel, it felt as though party activists were relieved that the weight of governing, and the scrutiny and accountability that comes with it, had been lifted from weary shoulders.  

Now out of government, and with a much-reduced parliamentary party, there were notably fewer MPs and businesses in attendance. Instead, party activists were front and centre. There appeared to be a palpable sense of excitement amongst the party faithful at the chance to choose a new leader and chart a new course, which is perhaps unsurprising given the coronations and foregone conclusions that have characterised recent leadership contests. Given the bumpy start for the new No. 10 team after several missteps, Conservative Party Conference seemed to reflect a party daring to dream that we may even be heading for a one-term Labour Government. Although there’s a long way to go until 2029, the party is considering this leadership contest as an interview process for not only the next party leader, but for a potential Prime Minister too. Not so sure? Just look at 2019… 

It is an often-forgotten fact that, in the 2005 leadership contest, David Cameron went into Party Conference with public endorsements from just 14 MPs. Following an assured keynote speech without notes, and a series of successful engagements, Cameron left with triple the number of backers – and we all know how that ended.  

Leadership Contenders: Who’s Rising and Who’s Falling? 

In a similar vein to Cameron, James Cleverly is widely seen to have exceeded expectations this time around and has emerged as the dark horse in the leadership race. Cleverly’s pitch seemed focused on expanding the reach of the Conservatives to tentative centre-right voters, not just on the members already in the Conference Hall. He struck an optimistic tone throughout Party Conference as he urged the party to “be more normal” in his keynote speech, which received the longest standing ovation of all four contenders. Although Cleverly earned praise from the commentariat and saw his odds surge amongst the bookmakers, it remains to be seen whether Tory MPs and members will opt for Cleverly’s more moderate vision for the future of the party.  

If Party Conferences can make a candidate’s fortunes, they can also break them. Badenoch entered Conference as one of the leadership contest’s frontrunners. At Conference, she offered her familiar diagnosis of the Conservatives’ woes, calling for the “rewiring, rebooting, and reprogramming” of the British state and its institutions, amidst familiar attacks on socialism, net zero, and identity politics. However, Badenoch also made several controversial comments, from calling for tens of thousands of civil servants to be imprisoned to claiming that maternity pay is too high. Whilst her calls for a return to traditional conservative principles and a radical overhaul of the British state played well with the party grassroots, Tory MPs are said to be worried about her appeal to the wider electorate amidst a series of gaffes and controversies – and it is they who are the gatekeepers to the final round of the contest. 

Like Badenoch, Robert Jenrick was not immune from controversy after claiming that the SAS were killing, not capturing, terrorists because of fears that the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) would set them free. However, Jenrick delivered a largely assured string of appearances at Conference as he sought to pitch himself as the candidate of the party’s right wing. He offered plenty of red meat to the party grassroots, issuing a series of pledges to leave the ECHR, cap migration, cut foreign aid, and boost defence spending. He offered perhaps the most radical vision for the future of the party, channeling Blair’s New Labour strategy with his promise to establish “nothing less than a New Conservative Party”. Jenrick largely avoided any serious gaffes, and if his aim was to avoid any pitfalls that could jeopardise his status as the frontrunner in the race, he can generally be satisfied with how his Conference went. 

An outsider in the race prior to Conference, Tom Tugendhat needed a Cameron-esque standout moment to inject some momentum into his leadership bid. However, not even his innovative Tugend-Tan merch was sufficient to give lift-off to the MP for Tonbridge’s campaign. Throughout Conference, Tugendhat drew on his military experience to pitch himself as a party “leader, not manager”, and he made it through without any major gaffes. However, his lack of a standout moment, and the fact he already sits at the back of the pack with regards to MP endorsements, mean it is unlikely he will make it to the final two unless anything changes in the week leading up to the next MPs’ ballot. Tugendhat continued his tack to the Right with pledges to cap migration and reform ECHR, though this feels like a crowded space, with more established rivals such as Jenrick and Badenoch already having staked their claim to this territory. Despite this, Tugendhat cemented his status as a senior and experienced figure within the party, and one who is set to continue playing a prominent role in its senior echelons for years to come. 

Challenges Ahead: Rebuilding the Party for 2029 

On the final day of Conference, all four leadership candidates appeared together on the main stage, bringing to a close a Party Conference that was largely a tame affair when compared to the psychodrama and vitriol that has plagued the Conservative parliamentary party in recent years. 

Whoever wins the leadership contest, the new party leader faces a mammoth task. How will they simultaneously win back Reform and Liberal Democrat voters, whilst attracting younger voters? How will they heal internal party rifts in order to avoid the fates of so many of their predecessors? How will they revive CCHQ as a campaign machine against the backdrop of dwindling donations and a shrinking membership? 

Tory MPs will whittle down the pack to just two candidates on 9-10th October, with party members choosing their leader between 15th and 31st October. Although Party Conference was a big opportunity for contenders to set out their stalls, there’s still all to play for in what is perhaps the most open-ended Conservative leadership contest for some time. If there’s anything we have learnt from the leadership drama that has engulfed the Conservatives over the past few years, it’s that a week is a long time in politics. 

 

 

Labour Conference 2024: Starmer asks for patience

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Outside the Labour Conference 2024 Entrance

Despite jubilant singalongs in the bars of Liverpool to Keir Mather MP playing Chappell Roan, or Oliver Coppard’s playlist of Sheffield’s greatest hits, the mood on the conference floor was far from Hot To Go (for those over 35, that is a Chappell Roan reference). 

Conference tension 

After 14 years in opposition, the party is still adjusting to the machinery of government. Amidst briefings against Starmer’s top team, scrutiny on donations, and the winter fuel allowance fallout, the party leadership urgently needed to take control of the conference mood to inject enthusiasm and confidence in this Government’s direction. 

The day after conference, however, the media still isn’t finished with stories around donations, and with the Budget and Spending Review around the corner, there lacked a major policy announcement that may have changed the mood music.  

A Long Term Strategy

That lack of major policy announcement was quite deliberate. While the electorate were treated to a flurry of announcements in the Government’s first weeks – think 1.5 million homes targets, planning and onshore wind overhaul, GB energy launch, junior doctor’s pay deal – Number 10 wants to move towards a mission led rather than announcement driven approach to governing. 

What do the 200 odd newbie MPs think? Behind the scenes of the somewhat ‘green’ Parliamentary party there is some frustration – with new MPs worried about what they see as a failure to explain the Government’s strategic direction and to shut down unhelpful stories quickly. 

Looking ahead: Labour’s next steps 

It wasn’t all doom and gloom. It was the party’s best attended conference to date, and across fringes, there were positive noises from industry regarding the stability that has returned to policy delivery and commitments to long-term strategy bringing the investor confidence so sought after by Number 11’s growth mission. 

To shore up this stability, ministers and MPs alike stuck steadfast to key messages and top lines. As a result, businesses are struggling to break through the headlines and get clear answers to more granular policy challenges. For some attendees, Business Day also didn’t bring the clarity they hoped for, owing to disappointment at minimal ministerial engagement during the event. Despite very positive reviews of its approach prior to the election, the Government needs to be careful not to be seen to be going backwards in its approach to business engagement. 

Despite these challenges, Starmer’s ask of membership and industry at conference was clear – be patient with me as I make the tough decisions needed to course correct 14 years of Conservative government. But with so many unforced errors in less than 40 days sitting time, there remains concern amongst MPs and the wider membership. 

What next? To steal a nautical reference from Wes Streeting, all eyes now fix on the October budget to blow some wind in Labour’s sails. 

 

To speak to our Public Affairs team, please contact Alan Boyd-Hall, Head of Public Affairs: alan.boyd-hall@grayling.com 

New European Commission team unveiled, competitiveness at the forefront

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By Jose Arroyo, Grayling Brussels

On 17 September 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented her new team of European Commissioners, that will lead the European Union until 2029, pending parliamentary approval. As already hinted in recent months, competitiveness will be the guiding principle of the new EU executive, following the recommendations of former European Central Bank president Draghi, who in his report painted a stark picture of Europe’s economy and proposed solutions to reignite it.

The incumbent President has decided to surround herself with six Executive Vice-Presidents, with the main heavyweights being newcomers French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, in charge of industrial policy and the EU Single Market and Spanish Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera, nominated to oversee the green transition and to be the bloc’s competition watchdog. Each of the 26 commissioners and vice-presidents will now have to face confirmation hearings at the European Parliament where they will have to prove to MEPs that they’re the right person for the job.

Von der Leyen 2.0

A little over three months after Europeans went to the polls to elect the European Parliament for the next five years, recently re-elected Commission President von der Leyen presented the 26 members of her new executive. She becomes the fourth Commission president to serve a second term in the EU’s history. EU member state governments had gradually nominated their candidates throughout the summer, with each country getting a Commissioner role and Germany having the most influential one with von der Leyen as Commission President.

There were some tensions as von der Leyen pushed for gender balanced team, using her power to assign portfolios as the lever. However, the horse trading was not limited to gender but also personalities. Only 24 hours before the nominees’ official unveiling was expected, French incumbent Commissioner (and noted von der Leyen critic) Thierry Breton unexpectedly resigned, publicly accusing her of going behind his back to ask President Macron for a new French candidate to replace him. A younger figure in the form of Stéphane Séjourné (Foreign Minister and former MEP) subsequently took France’s spot in the new Commission.

The new executive was unveiled on 17 September. Von der Leyen strove to strike a balance between male and female commissioners, northern, southern, western and eastern countries, and between political parties. However, her own centre-right political party EPP has an increased presence in it, with 15 members out of 27.

Five Executive Vice-Presidents (EVP) and one Vice-President have been appointed who will oversee the work of ‘regular’ Commissioners. These are:

  • Stéphane Séjourné (Renew, France), EVP for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy
  • Teresa Ribera (S&D, Spain) EVP for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition
  • Henna Virkkunen (EPP, Finland), EVP for Tech-Sovereignty, Security and Democracy
  • Raffaele Fitto (ECR, Italy), EVP for Cohesion and Reforms
  • Roxana Mînzatu (S&D, Romania), EVP for People, Skills and Preparedness
  • Kaja Kallas (Renew, Estonia), High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President

President von der Leyen assigned them a series of objectives in “mission letters”, highlighting what she wants them to achieve in the next five years. Ribera, Spain’s incumbent Ecological Transition Minister will continue the EU’s work on decarbonising the economy, and, together with Séjourné, is expected to be two of the main players are in charge of delivering a ‘Clean Industrial Deal’ in the first 100 days of the mandate. This new initiative, announced by von der Leyen earlier this year, will aim to ensure that European industry can decarbonise without losing its competitive edge. On top of this, Ribera will succeed Margrethe Vestager as the EU’s competition chief. She will have to strike a balance between preventing anticompetitive mergers and allowing EU companies to grow and be able to challenge US and Chinese giants. Séjourné, outgoing French Foreign Minister, will oversee the EU’s industrial policy, with a focus on improving the EU’s competitiveness. The presentation of an Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act and of a European Competitiveness Fund, both aimed at ensuring European industrial leadership, will be among his main projects.

Getting techy and business friendly

Among the other 24 nominations, it’s worth noting the priorities assigned to Finland’s Henna Virkkunen, the new EVP for Tech Sovereignty, Security and Democracy. This portfolio reflects the EU’s increasing concern about excessive reliance on third countries for key technologies. In another first, long-standing Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis has been named Commissioner for Implementation and Simplification (on top of Commissioner for the Economy and Productivity), being tasked with simplifying the EU’s legislation and reducing administrative and reporting burdens placed on companies.

Towards European competitiveness

The announcements this week reveal a European bloc that is trying to address the long-term competitiveness issues that its economy is facing. The report put together by former ECB President Mario Draghi and presented earlier this month, sounded the alarm bell on the state of the EU’s industry and called for massive investments to ensure the Union can keep up with the Chinese and American giants. He proposed several solutions, including linking the decarbonisation drive with a push for a competitive industry, boosting Europe’s security and reducing dependence on foreign powers for key technologies, and closing the innovation gap with the US and China.

Von der Leyen has largely taken Draghi’s advice on board in her new team, with the push for a greener economy, a trademark of the previous term, being coupled with more support for European businesses, investment promises and commitments to reducing administrative burdens. Her new team will largely be judged in 2029 on whether they were able to ensure European economic growth while achieving the ambitious environmental targets set during the previous mandate.

Next stop: parliamentary grilling

The next couple of months will determine if the announced line up is in fact the final one. The Commissioners-designate will attend confirmation hearings at the different committees of the European Parliament following which, the European Parliament will vote to give its consent on the appointments.

Ribera will have to face the Environment Committee (ENVI), Séjourné the Internal Market (IMCO) one, and so on. Committees will then vote on their candidacy. Historically, the Parliament flexed its muscles and declined to give its consent to a couple of candidates: in 2019, the EP rejected France, Hungary, and Romania’s first picks. This time around, the Hungarian candidate is expected to be in the firing line, given his links with Russia-friendly PM Viktor Orban, his perceived disdain for the European Parliament (he once called MEPs “idiots”), and his lack of experience in the portfolio of health and animal welfare, to which he’s been nominated. If any Commissioner-designate is rejected, they will likely have to withdraw their candidacy, and a new candidate will have to be put forward.

Once the parliamentary hearings are over and the 26 Commissioners-designate have been approved by the respective committees, the proposed European Commission as a whole will face a confirmation vote in the EP Plenary. The back-and-forth in the committees can delay the official swearing-in date of the new Commission from 1 November, to either 1 December or even 1 January 2025.

Davey’s Dozens: The five Lib Dems to watch in this Parliament

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Liberal Democrats Party Conference

Wendy Chamberlain belting out an ‘Ode to Liz Truss’ at Glee Club perfectly encapsulated this year’s Lib Dem Conference. To a packed room of die-hard members, horrified first-time attendees (including your author) and a large pack of lobby journalists, the Lib Dems’ Chief Whip asked the mostly cheering audience to Lettuce Be…

So, lettuce be honest – the mood throughout Conference was jubilant. Many of the party’s new MPs were clearly revelling in the spotlight after winning the truss-t (I’m sorry) of their constituents in dozens of former Conservative seats. The dramatic change in electoral fortunes saw a bumper turnout in Brighton of members, national journalists and business representatives – with many of the latter attending their first Lib Dem Conference. Indeed, some attendees were even observed circling events asking anyone dressed smartly if they were a new MP.

The Lib Dems deployed a ruthlessly efficient and effective election campaign, targeting seats instead of votes. Candidates focussed on just a few core policy issues which successfully tapped into the public’s exhaustion with the Conservative Government – specifically health and social care, and sewage. But now, despite returning a record number of MPs, the party faces some fundamental questions on its future direction.

How will it maximise its new cohort of MPs? How will it shift from attacking the Conservatives? What sort of opposition will it present to Labour? What other policy issues will it focus on? Will the leadership finally give the membership what it wants and campaign more vocally on the UK’s relationship with the EU?

All the while, it will still have to consolidate the 59 seats it took from the Conservatives – and target even more. Next May’s local elections will be the first true test of its response, as all 21 county councils are up for grabs.

Sir Ed Davey sought to address some of these questions during his address to conference. He urged his party to “finish the job” of consigning the Conservatives to the history books, and suggested his party will be “careful scrutineers” of the Labour Government. He also received rapturous applause for urging Sir Keir Starmer to be more ambitious on Europe – perhaps a sign of things to come.

All of a sudden, public affairs teams will be considering how they engage with the largest third party in over 100 years. Navigating its various quirks – like its truly democratic and complex policy making process – and engaging a brand-new team of spokespeople will require a well-considered and targeted strategy.

To help you out, we’ve picked out five Lib Dems to watch out for, including key players, policy experts and future stars…

Wendy Chamberlain, MP for North East Fife and Chief Whip

Karaoke talents aside, Chamberlain has steadily risen up the ranks of the party since her election in 2019. From patrolling the streets of Fife to keeping Lib Dem MPs in check – Chamberlain served in the police force for over a decade before entering politics. She joined the Liberal Democrats in the aftermath of the 2015 UK General Election, at the party’s lowest ebb. Fast forward nine years, and she comfortably defended her seat with an increased majority in 2024. She is one of the Liberal Democrats’ trusted media performers and is likely to be one of the party’s public faces in the new term. She also plays the Scottish traditional sport of shinty, enjoying a game with Ed Davey on the campaign trail in one of his tamer election stunts!

Calum Miller, MP for Bicester and Woodstock and Foreign Affairs Spokesperson
Calum

The race for Bicester and Woodstock came down to two former colleagues. Former adviser to Nick Clegg and Liberal Democrat candidate, Miller narrowly edged Conservative Rupert Harrison, a former adviser to Chancellor George Osborne. After leaving Government, Miller held a series of senior civil service roles, before joining Oxford University as a senior fellow. Miller is trusted and respected by the Lib Dem leadership, not least for his rare experience in government. He was rewarded with the Foreign Affairs brief in this week’s reshuffle.

Helen Morgan, MP for North Shropshire and Health Spokesperson
Helen

Morgan shot into the national spotlight for, quite literally, bursting Boris’ bubble in December 2021. She overturned a historic majority of almost 23,000 votes from the Conservatives in the North Shropshire by-election and was an early pioneer of the Lib Dems’ election victory stunts. Her profile has steadily risen since, and she was a regular representative on national media during the 2024 election campaign. This week she was appointed Health spokesperson – a hugely important role in one of the party’s core policy areas and a major show of trust from the leadership.

Josh Babarinde OBE, MP for Eastbourne and Justice Spokesperson
Josh

Is there anything Josh Babarinde can’t do? Create a leading social enterprise, check. Forbes 30 under 30, check. Awarded an OBE for services to criminal justice, check. In July, he won back his home town seat of Eastbourne for the party from the Conservatives (and his former primary school teacher!). For the past two years, Babarinde has helped lead the Lib Dem campaign to tackle sewage spills, appearing regularly on national and regional media. He is also to blame for pushing Ed Davey off a different paddleboard at last year’s Conference! Josh is perhaps already a star in Lib Dem circles. But at just 31, he represents the party’s next generation, and is certainly one to watch as a national figure.

Baroness Pidgeon MBE, Liberal Democrat Peer
Caroline

Caroline Pidgeon is no stranger to front-line politics. She was first elected as a Liberal Democrat councillor in the 1998 local election, and stood down as a London Assembly Member in 2024. Pidgeon is a true transport policy expert, having chaired the London Assembly’s Transport Committee and led multiple campaigns, including to make the Elizabeth Line level boarding. On the day of this year’s election, she was appointed to the House of Lords, and will be an important figure on all issues London and transport.

 

If you have any questions about engaging with the Liberal Democrats, please contact Alexis King: alexis.king@grayling.com  

Draghi Report: Another blueprint to restore the EU’s competitiveness

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On 9 September, Mario Draghi unveiled his long-anticipated report ‘The Future of European Competitiveness – A Competitive Strategy for Europe’. Originally expected in June, the 400-page study provides a comprehensive assessment of the state of the EU economy.

Draghi’s analysis presents a stark outlook, noting a steady decline in productivity over the last 20 years. He warns that the EU is falling behind global competitors, particularly the United States and China, due to its failure to fully embrace innovation and match rivals in areas like technology and industry.

To address these challenges, Draghi calls for decisive action. He recommends refocusing efforts on innovation, decarbonisation, and industrial security, backed by an annual investment of €800 Billion – 5% of the EU’s GDP – in sectors such as deep technology, defence, and critical minerals. He also stresses the importance of reducing over-reliance on global supply chains and adopting a pragmatic trade policy.

While most political groups and industry leaders have welcomed his proposals, some stakeholders remain sceptical, citing a disproportionate focus on competitiveness. The report’s long-term impact, however, will only become clear over the course of the next EU Commission mandate.

An instruction manual to fix the EU

In his report, Draghi identifies several priority areas that he considers are key to restoring the EU’s competitiveness:

  1. Innovation: Draghi argues that Europe lags in productivity due to slow digital adoption and low innovation. He calls for a stronger innovation ecosystem, better commercialisation, and more investment in AI and quantum computing.
  2. Decarbonisation: Draghi states that high energy prices, worsened by the loss of Russian gas, threaten competitiveness. The report urges accelerated decarbonisation and investments in clean energy infrastructure.
  3. Geopolitical challenges: the report highlights the need to reduce reliance on external resources. Draghi believes Europe must strengthen defence and invest in clean tech and critical minerals.
  4. Protecting Europe’s manufacturing capacities: a new EU industrial strategy should balance competition and autonomy, integrate markets, streamline regulation, and enhance coordination across EU states.
  5. Social inclusion: Draghi highlights the importance of sharing growth benefits, with a focus on upskilling workers for the green and digital transitions.

Beyond this general assessment, the report dives deep into ten sectoral policies: energy, critical raw materials, digitalisation & advanced technologies, high-speed/capacity broadband networks, computing & AI, semiconductors, energy-intensive industries, clean technologies, automotive, defence, space, pharma and transport. For each, Draghi offers an assessment of strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities. He also formulates specific recommendations such as facilitating telecoms mergers by assessing deals on an EU level or reviewing Fit for 55 legislation such as the 2035 Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) ban.

The former Italian Prime Minister also shares his perspective and advice on how to tackle several horizontal issues:

  • To accelerate innovation, Europe must boost R&I to sustain competitiveness, focusing on emerging technologies and addressing demographic challenges.
  • To close the skills gap, education systems need to adapt, with an emphasis on digital, green, and foundational skills. Lifelong learning is seen as crucial to meet the needs of a changing labour market. Manufacturing workers will need to acquire advanced skills to operate the technologies used today.
  • Public and private investment will be key to support the twin transitions; completing the Capital Markets Union is essential to unlock investment.
  • Competition policy should evolve to address challenges from digital markets and global competitors, promoting both innovation and business scale.
  • EU governance needs to be further simplified to reduce regulatory burdens and enhance competitiveness.

The report also includes some bold suggestions, including moving towards regular joint borrowing from Member States to fund strategic investments, revamping EU competition rules, extending qualified majority voting to more areas, as well as prioritising trade agreements and direct investment with resource-rich countries.

What’s next?

Draghi’s report stands as a significant testament to one of Europe’s most renowned technocrats. While non-binding, it provides an unvarnished assessment of Europe’s economic landscape, offering a practical set of tools aimed at transforming the bloc in an increasingly competitive global environment.

Reactions to the report have been broadly positive. Industry organisations have welcomed proposals to reduce the regulatory burden and simplify reporting obligations stemming from the EU. The European Parliament’s main political groups, including the EPP (centre-right), Renew Europe (liberal), and the Socialist & Democrats (centre-left), have praised Draghi’s message as a “wake-up call for Europe” and urged policymakers to “rise to the challenges of our time” by implementing the proposed measures.

However, environmental NGOs such as Climate Action Network (CAN) and BirdLife Europe have criticised the report for its strong focus on industrial competitiveness, arguing that it portrays environmental protections as obstacles to economic growth.

Despite the varied responses, the report’s true impact is still uncertain. Draghi initially planned to deliver the report before the European elections and ahead of President Von der Leyen’s political guidelines for the next term. With the new Commission now in place, it remains unclear how much influence the report will have on legislative work over the next five years. Some of its more ambitious proposals – such as new joint borrowing – have already been rejected by Germany and the Netherlands, who advocate instead for unlocking private funding through greater integration of capital markets.

It will be up to Ursula von der Leyen to build consensus amongst decision-makers to ensure at least some of these recommendations materialise.

Vantage Point Podcast: Bill Simmons and Nicky Morgan on the US Elections

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Bill Simmons and Nicky Clark Podcast on US Elections

In Nicky Morgan’s latest episode as host of the Vantage Point political podcast by Grayling, she speaks with Bill Simmons, Managing Director of Dutko Government Relations.

With the first televised Presidential debate looming, Bill and Nicky consider whether Donald Trump has been wrongfooted by Kamala Harris’ nomination, dissect all-important campaign fundraising and weigh up the significance or otherwise of Vice-Presidential nominees.

Listen to the Episode 14 of the Vantage Point Podcast below. You can follow our Grayling Podcast on Spotify here.

Can Labour reverse the SNP’s dominance in the Scottish Parliament?

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scottish parliament

Scotland’s political landscape changed on July 4th.

The SNP, who had won every national election since 2011, were humbled across the urban Central Belt, with a resurgent Scottish Labour claiming 37 of Scotland’s 57 seats, leaving the SNP clinging on narrowly to a few strongholds and banished to the margins of the House of Commons from being the third largest party.

At the SNP’s recent conference, First Minister John Swinney and Westminster leader Stephen Flynn both faced up to the result, arguing the party could not make excuses and must change its approach.

Swinney specifically committed to “campaigning on an independence platform deeply intertwined with people’s everyday concerns” – to intertwine a domestic policy offer on areas of Scottish Government responsibility with the broader constitutional goal of Scottish independence. It remains to be seen whether this approach will resonate with the Scottish public in practice.

Labour’s Path to Power: Can They Capitalise on SNP’s Decline in 2026?

Anas Sarwar, the victorious Scottish Labour leader, meanwhile, has repeatedly stressed that the Westminster election was just the first stage of a two-stage campaign, with the ultimate aim being the 2026 Holyrood election, which could see Labour form a government in the Scottish Parliament for the first time since 2007.

Sarwar, unlike Flynn or Swinney, could take heart from the UK wide result – in addition to UK Labour’s success, a common thread across the entire election was that it allowed voters to punish incumbent political parties in each nation of the UK.

Labour’s one-word election slogan, “Change”, leaned into this sentiment clearly.

With the SNP having been in office in Scotland for seventeen years, longer than the Conservatives’ period of dominance at Westminster, will this change message resonate a second time, with Scotland due to head to the polls in eighteen months’ time. Will Keir Starmer’s message still be fresh in 2026 and record strong enough to help Sarwar become First Minister?

Data from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey suggests that it might, with the Scottish public specifically dissatisfied with the Scottish Government’s current performance on devolved issues.

On a range of indicators, the electorate’s belief in the Scottish Government itself has declined significantly since 2019, an important factor considering the 2021 Holyrood election took place when Covid-19 vaccine deployment was boosting incumbent governments across the globe.

Trust in the Scottish Government has declined to 47%, its lowest level since data collection began in 1999. Satisfaction with the performance of the NHS in Scotland, a key devolved responsibility, has also fallen dramatically in the past five years, with 52% of the public expressing dissatisfaction. On the economy, the figures are even more dramatic, with 83% of the Scottish population believing their standard of living had declined in the last 12 months, the highest figures yet recorded.

Fragmented Politics: What Scotland’s New Political Landscape Means for Labour’s Holyrood Ambitions

However, while Labour won a resounding victory in terms of seats, both vote share and the distribution of those votes within particular seats point to a closer and more uncertain contest in 2026.

Labour’s vote share in Scotland at the election, of 35.3%, is a similar figure to their results at the Holyrood election of 2003, where Labour defeated an SNP led by John Swinney, but won 50 seats – well short of the 65 MSPs needed for a majority – and required a coalition with the Scottish Liberal Democrats to govern. While Labour’s seat total at Westminster is undeniably impressive, on vote share they are not close to emulating the SNP’s dominant performances throughout the last decade.

Additionally, beyond the SNP-Labour battle, the General Election performances of the Scottish Green Party, Liberal Democrats and even Reform UK point to a more fractious and fragmented Scottish Parliament in the coming term, with those parties posing a much more significant challenge to both Labour and the SNP under Holyrood’s more proportional voting system.

Moreover, while some evidence shows that some pro-independence voters crossed over to vote for Labour in 2024, it is unclear whether this will be a permanent shift, or a temporary swing in the context of a UK-wide election where Labour sought to replace the Conservatives at a UK-wide level.

The First Minister’s announcements this week in the Scottish Parliament, confirming severe budget cuts for which he pinned blame on the UK Government, and pledging to “do less, better” in the Scottish Government’s legislative programme, illustrated the depth of the challenge ahead in winning back the key voters who created the sweeping victories the SNP enjoyed under Nicola Sturgeon. Time is running for the SNP to prove it’s still Scotland’s best option.

 

If you would like to receive Grayling Scotland’s full analysis of the Scottish Government’s Programme for Government, please contact the Public Affairs team at ScotlandTeam@grayling.com.

 

 

 

 

 

Olympic & political games: A backwards glance at France’s snap summer election

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By Grayling Paris

Cet article est disponible en version Française ci-dessous 

The outcome of the European elections on June 9th shook French politics to their very core. In the face of a surging far-right embodied by the Rassemblement National, and a shocking slump for his own centrist Renaissance, President Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called a snap legislative election – only weeks ahead of Paris hosting the 2024 Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Political landscape in metamorphosis

Macron’s unexpected decision caught both the political class and the public off guard: no President had dissolved the National Assembly since 1997. An express three-week campaign kicked-off on June 17th – and would be full of surprises.

Early on, left-of-centre parties (Parti Socialiste, Les Verts, Parti Communiste, La France Insoumise) shocked the electorate by forging an electoral alliance under the banner of the “Nouveau Front Populaire” or New Popular Front – a throwback to the “Popular Front” led by leftist statesman Léon Blum which went on to defeat a rising tide of far-right extremists in 1936. Despite being able to come together remarkably quickly, the NFP was – and remains – difficult to quantify as a political force, in large part due to the disparities in its constituent parties’ core beliefs (notably: nuclear energy, nature conservation, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict). Several controversies raised during the European elections also call into question the group’s longevity.

The right also underwent a reshuffle, in particular when Eric Ciotti, the leader of the “Les Républicains” party (formerly home to Presidents Chirac and Sarkozy), unilaterally announced a merger with Marine Le Pen Rassemblement National. This move created a significant rift within the party, still officially led by Ciotti, and led to several cases being brought against Ciotti by senior party figures.

Centrist parties, for their part, remained largely united under Macron’s banner, although signs of independence began to emerge in anticipation of future electoral contests (e.g.: the 2027 presidential elections). For example, former PM Edouard Philippe’s party, Horizons, fielded candidates under its own banner, including in constituencies where a centrist candidate was already on the ballot.

Photo finish at the polls… and a silver medal for the Presidential camp

The final results following the second-round on July 7 proved just as surprising, in that they showed no clear winner. For the first time since its inception, after two rounds of voting France was left with something of a three-way tie between coalitions.

By agreeing to withdraw third-place candidates in three-way races against the RN – a time-honoured practice referred to as ‘republican front’ – the left-wing NFP and Macron’s centrist blocs to obtain 178 and 150 seats, respectively. Meanwhile the far-right bloc led by RN obtained 142 seats; it’s also worth noting that RN is the largest single party in the National Assembly, with 123 members flying under Le Pen’s banner. This comes as a boon to the far-right, and to Le Pen in particular, as her party will now benefit from additional public financing, per French electoral laws.

In a surprising turn of events, the Socialist Party – a political force many had counted out following its poor showings in the last seven years – also made notable gains, building on their success in the European ballot and nearly tying with LFI. For their part, Les Républicains managed to maintain their standing despite Ciotti’s defection.

While 70% of sitting MNAs were re-elected, no single voting bloc has come within distance of the 289 seats required to form a majority government. Even though France has lived through ‘cohabitation’ governments (in which the President and Prime Minister are from opposing political camps) in the past, given that the Fifth Republic (read: the French constitution) favours majority governments – and in many ways was not designed for governing coalitions – it’s fair to say that the country is now facing an unprecedented political situation.

A new and antagonistic assembly

Tensions ran high as members took to the assembly to set up the 17th parliamentary term, foreshadowing the turbulent summer that would follow. As if a dead heat finish at the polls wasn’t enough, eleven political groups were constituted in the National Assembly (a new record), leading to even more instability and opportunities for alliances and horse trading.

It took three rounds of voting – and many alliances – to re-elect Yaël Braun-Pivet (a Macron supporter) as President of the National Assembly. The centrists’ victory was only short-lived, with the NFP securing a narrow majority of key positions in the assembly’s Bureau – meaning Ms. Braun-Pivet will have to operate with their consensus. No RN representatives were elected to the Bureau, despite their parliamentary strength.

Committee selection proved to be just as tumultuous. Despite securing six out of eight committee chairs, Macron’s camp will play second fiddle on budgetary issues. As expected, per convention the Finance committee chair went to the opposition; however, the role of General Rapporteur on the Budget – typically given to a member of the governing camp – did not go to Renaissance’s candidate, but rather to another centrist who managed to break the tie by virtue of being the elder candidate. This unconventional setup promises to make this autumn’s budgetary debates even more complicated than usual.

At long last, white smoke over Matignon

After a gruelling 51 days of speculation, Michel Barnier – the EU’s former Brexit negotiator – was appointed as Prime Minister on September 5th.

Barnier has extensive political experience, having previously served as a minister in four right-wing governments in the nineties and early aughts, and twice as a European Commissioner before becoming head of the Brexit task force in 2016. A conservative figure from Les Républicains, the 73-year-old Barnier has also held positions as MNA, Senator, and local French elected official. His last political contest took place in 2021 when he ran in LR’s presidential primary, finishing third.

A skilled negotiator, Barnier now faces the daunting task of forming a “national unity” government capable of holding together a deeply divided Assembly and presenting the 2025 budget to the National Assembly by October 1st. With France already under scrutiny from the European Commission for an excessive deficit, Barnier must quickly propose a credible fiscal plan to reassure both European partners and financial markets, or risk further economic deterioration.

Les résultats des élections européennes du 9 juin firent l’effet d’un séisme dans la vie politique française. En effet, face à l’avance et l’écart creusé par le Rassemblement national ; et surtout face au recul de la majorité présidentielle, le Président de la République a pris la décision « surprise » de dissoudre l’Assemblée nationale pour rebattre les cartes du jeu politique.

Une recomposition de l’échiquier politique français ?

Une décision inattendue, qui a pris de court une partie de la classe politique mais aussi l’opinion publique, qui n’était plus coutumière du fait depuis 1997. Une campagne « éclair » de trois semaines a alors commencé le 17 juin, marquée en premier lieu par l’alliance des partis de gauche (Parti Socialiste, Les Verts, Parti communiste, France Insoumise) sous la bannière « Nouveau Front Populaire » en rappel de l’union des partis de gauche sous l’égide de Léon Blum en 1936. Cette alliance a suscité beaucoup de questions du fait de prises de position parfois contraires entre ces partis (ex : le nucléaire, construction de la nouvelle autoroute A69 dans le Sud de la France, conflit israélo-palestinien) et de violentes polémiques pendant les élections européennes. Sa pérennité est souvent questionnée.

La recomposition a également eu lieu à droite, où le leader du parti « Les Républicains » a unilatéralement annoncé son ralliement au Rassemblement national de Marine Le Pen et de Jordan Bardella. Une annonce qui a fait l’effet d’une déflagration au sein du parti, pourtant toujours officiellement dirigé par Eric Ciotti, après une procédure d’exclusion intentée par les principaux cadres mais contestée par la justice.

Au centre, les partis unis au sein de la majorité présidentielle ont également fait bloc, tout en laissant percevoir de premières volontés d’indépendance en anticipation des prochaines échéances électorales (ex : les élections présidentielles de 2027). C’est le cas par exemple du parti de l’ancien Premier ministre Edouard Philippe, Horizons,  qui a parfois présenté des candidats sous sa seule bannière, voire face à des candidats du camp présidentiel.

Reste à savoir si cette recomposition sera durable …

Des résultats surprise ?

Les résultats du second tour le 7 juillet ont également été une surprise et un fait politique majeur. Après que le RN est arrivé en tête au 1er tour, il a été devancé au 2nd par le Nouveau Front Populaire, grâce à la constitution d’un « front républicain », sorte d’accord entre les partis de gauche et du centre pour se désister en cas de second tour entre l’un de leurs candidats et le RN.

La coalition du centre est arrivée 2ème, devant le Rassemblement national qui, c’est à noter, est tout de même le premier parti de l’Assemblée, réunissant le plus de voix et de députés. La progression de ce groupe est la plus spectaculaire de tous, entrainant également une hausse significative de ses financements (les partis étant rémunérés en France selon le nombre de voix obtenus et le nombre d’élus). La progression du PS est également à noter, quasiment ex aequo avec la France insoumise. Les LR, malgré la défection de certains élus avec Eric Ciotti se sont maintenus à peu près au même niveau.

Malgré un rééquilibrage inédit des forces formant trois « groupes » minoritaires, chacun loin d’atteindre la majorité absolue, l’Assemblée a tout de même conservé 70% de ses députés élus en 2022, une situation loin du bouleversement attendu.

Toutefois, si la France a déjà été gouvernée à plusieurs reprises par un régime de cohabitation depuis 1958, la situation actuelle est inédite sous le système de la Vème République qui favorise le fait majoritaire plutôt que la constitution de coalitions.

Des forces antagonistes au sein de l’Assemblée

L’installation de la XVIIème et nouvelle législature a effectivement illustré l’instabilité et les fortes tensions créées par cette tripolarisation de la vie politique.

Premièrement, il n’y a jamais eu autant de groupes politiques : 11 se sont déclarés, un minimum de 15 députés étant requis pour former un groupe.

Ensuite, au terme des trois scrutins et de divers jeux d’alliance, c’est Yaël Braun-Pivet (majorité présidentielle) qui a été réélue à la présidence de l’Assemblée nationale donnant une victoire de courte durée au bloc du centre dont les alliances ont moins bien fonctionné pour l’élection du Bureau de l’Assemblée. En effet, les partis du NFP s’y sont trouvé majoritaires (12 membres sur 21), mettant en minorité la Présidente. Aucun représentant du Rassemblement national n’y a été élu, bien que le parti soit le plus important en nombre de députés .

Les élections des bureaux des commissions ont aussi eu leur lot de surprises. Si en apparence les partis du bloc central ont plutôt raflé la mise en remportant 6 présidences de commission sur 8, ils encaissent une défaite majeure, la perte du rôle de rapporteur général du budget (RGB) au sein de la commission des Finances. Traditionnellement, la présidence de cette commission échoit au principal groupe d’opposition, Eric Coquerel (FI) en a donc « conservé » la présidence en étant réélu. Cependant, le rôle de RGB va habituellement à un membre de la majorité gouvernementale pour porter le budget qui est proposé par le gouvernement. Après un vote sous tension, c’est finalement Charles de Courson (LIOT), député le plus expérimenté de l’Assemblée, qui l’a emporté face au candidat de la majorité malgré une égalité, l’âge prévalant.

Ce chamboulement au sein de la commission des Finances augure des discussions éminemment complexes lors du vote du budget à l’automne.

Après un été en suspens, enfin la fumée blanche

La nomination d’un nouveau Premier ministre, dont l’identité a animé les discussions tout l’été, a enfin eu lieu après 51 jours d’attente. C’est donc Michel Barnier, ancien négociateur du Brexit, qui devient le nouveau Premier ministre français.

Fort de sa longue expérience en politique, Barnier, âgé de 73 ans, a été ministre à quatre reprises dans des gouvernements de droite dans les années 1990 et 2000, et commissaire européen à deux reprises avant de devenir chef de la task force sur le Brexit en 2016. Figure conservatrice du parti Les Républicains, il a été successivement député, sénateur et élu local en France. Il s’est présenté à la primaire de la droite pour la présidentielle, où il a terminé à la troisième place.
La passation avec l’actuel Premier ministre démissionnaire, Gabriel Attal, devrait avoir lieu ce jeudi.

Négociateur aguerri, Barnier aura désormais la tâche difficile de former un gouvernement d’« unité nationale » qui ne s’effondrera pas immédiatement face à une législature française profondément divisée et de présenter le budget pour 2025 au 1er octobre devant l’Assemblée nationale. Le dérapage des finances publiques expose la France à de nouvelles critiques de la Commission européenne, qui a déjà placé le pays sous surveillance pour déficit excessif. Michel Barnier devra donc rapidement présenter une trajectoire budgétaire crédible pour convaincre ses partenaires européens et rassurer les marchés financiers, sous peine de voir la situation économique se détériorer advantage.

European elections timeline

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Stay organized and plan for the months ahead with our European Elections Timeline

Orbán makes waves as Hungary takes its turn leading the Council Presidency

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On July 1, 2024, Hungary assumed the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union. Shortly sharing its programme with the controversial title ‘Make European Great Again’, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán embarked – unannounced – on an international tour with stops in Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing, and the USA, fashioning himself as a mediator and potential peace negotiator.

Given the European Union is currently at a critical institutional junction, several institutional actors in Brussels and in Member State capitals have reacted by choosing to limit their participation in Council meetings chaired by Hungary, calling into question how much progress on legislative files can be made between now and the end of the year.

The Grayling Budapest have put together a report taking a look Hungarian Presidency’s priorities. Read on to find out what will be on the agenda if the Presidency manages to overcome this institutional and diplomatic impasse.

Click here to access the report

New Government… Now What?

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With Labour’s first full week complete, our Public Affairs team has taken a deep dive into policy priorities ahead of the King’s Speech this week. We’ve also looked at key moments for the next few months, how the election went down in the devolved nations and set out our top tips on cutting through the noise of a new Parliament.

One Week In..