Archives: Election Hub

Nicky Morgan and Anne Robinson on the advantage of taking three daily newspapers, and how a pause can electrify political debate

In Nicky Morgan’s latest episode as host of the Vantage Point political podcast by Grayling, she sits down with journalist and broadcaster Anne Robinson.

Known worldwide for her acerbic wit, Anne famously hosted The Weakest Link in the UK and the US and was the first ever woman to regularly edit a national newspaper, the Daily Mirror. 

Looking back on Anne’s career to date, the discussion takes in a bumper election year, the shifting nature of political coverage and memories of covering three Thatcher elections.

You can listen to the full episode on all major podcast platforms including Spotify.

After a busy few days in his hometown for Conservative Party Conference, Grayling’s Marcus Boyle provides an insight into the mood of the party, the state of the leadership race, and what could be next for the Conservatives. 

Going into Conservative Party Conference, there was an expectation amongst many that it would resemble a wake as the party licks its wounds following the mauling it suffered at the General Election.  

A Surprising Mood Shift: Optimism in Birmingham 

The mood on the ground in Birmingham, however, was cautiously upbeat and optimistic. Less than three months into a new Labour government, engulfed by a donations scandal and internal spats about policy and personnel, it felt as though party activists were relieved that the weight of governing, and the scrutiny and accountability that comes with it, had been lifted from weary shoulders.  

Now out of government, and with a much-reduced parliamentary party, there were notably fewer MPs and businesses in attendance. Instead, party activists were front and centre. There appeared to be a palpable sense of excitement amongst the party faithful at the chance to choose a new leader and chart a new course, which is perhaps unsurprising given the coronations and foregone conclusions that have characterised recent leadership contests. Given the bumpy start for the new No. 10 team after several missteps, Conservative Party Conference seemed to reflect a party daring to dream that we may even be heading for a one-term Labour Government. Although there’s a long way to go until 2029, the party is considering this leadership contest as an interview process for not only the next party leader, but for a potential Prime Minister too. Not so sure? Just look at 2019… 

It is an often-forgotten fact that, in the 2005 leadership contest, David Cameron went into Party Conference with public endorsements from just 14 MPs. Following an assured keynote speech without notes, and a series of successful engagements, Cameron left with triple the number of backers – and we all know how that ended.  

Leadership Contenders: Who’s Rising and Who’s Falling? 

In a similar vein to Cameron, James Cleverly is widely seen to have exceeded expectations this time around and has emerged as the dark horse in the leadership race. Cleverly’s pitch seemed focused on expanding the reach of the Conservatives to tentative centre-right voters, not just on the members already in the Conference Hall. He struck an optimistic tone throughout Party Conference as he urged the party to “be more normal” in his keynote speech, which received the longest standing ovation of all four contenders. Although Cleverly earned praise from the commentariat and saw his odds surge amongst the bookmakers, it remains to be seen whether Tory MPs and members will opt for Cleverly’s more moderate vision for the future of the party.  

If Party Conferences can make a candidate’s fortunes, they can also break them. Badenoch entered Conference as one of the leadership contest’s frontrunners. At Conference, she offered her familiar diagnosis of the Conservatives’ woes, calling for the “rewiring, rebooting, and reprogramming” of the British state and its institutions, amidst familiar attacks on socialism, net zero, and identity politics. However, Badenoch also made several controversial comments, from calling for tens of thousands of civil servants to be imprisoned to claiming that maternity pay is too high. Whilst her calls for a return to traditional conservative principles and a radical overhaul of the British state played well with the party grassroots, Tory MPs are said to be worried about her appeal to the wider electorate amidst a series of gaffes and controversies – and it is they who are the gatekeepers to the final round of the contest. 

Like Badenoch, Robert Jenrick was not immune from controversy after claiming that the SAS were killing, not capturing, terrorists because of fears that the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) would set them free. However, Jenrick delivered a largely assured string of appearances at Conference as he sought to pitch himself as the candidate of the party’s right wing. He offered plenty of red meat to the party grassroots, issuing a series of pledges to leave the ECHR, cap migration, cut foreign aid, and boost defence spending. He offered perhaps the most radical vision for the future of the party, channeling Blair’s New Labour strategy with his promise to establish “nothing less than a New Conservative Party”. Jenrick largely avoided any serious gaffes, and if his aim was to avoid any pitfalls that could jeopardise his status as the frontrunner in the race, he can generally be satisfied with how his Conference went. 

An outsider in the race prior to Conference, Tom Tugendhat needed a Cameron-esque standout moment to inject some momentum into his leadership bid. However, not even his innovative Tugend-Tan merch was sufficient to give lift-off to the MP for Tonbridge’s campaign. Throughout Conference, Tugendhat drew on his military experience to pitch himself as a party “leader, not manager”, and he made it through without any major gaffes. However, his lack of a standout moment, and the fact he already sits at the back of the pack with regards to MP endorsements, mean it is unlikely he will make it to the final two unless anything changes in the week leading up to the next MPs’ ballot. Tugendhat continued his tack to the Right with pledges to cap migration and reform ECHR, though this feels like a crowded space, with more established rivals such as Jenrick and Badenoch already having staked their claim to this territory. Despite this, Tugendhat cemented his status as a senior and experienced figure within the party, and one who is set to continue playing a prominent role in its senior echelons for years to come. 

Challenges Ahead: Rebuilding the Party for 2029 

On the final day of Conference, all four leadership candidates appeared together on the main stage, bringing to a close a Party Conference that was largely a tame affair when compared to the psychodrama and vitriol that has plagued the Conservative parliamentary party in recent years. 

Whoever wins the leadership contest, the new party leader faces a mammoth task. How will they simultaneously win back Reform and Liberal Democrat voters, whilst attracting younger voters? How will they heal internal party rifts in order to avoid the fates of so many of their predecessors? How will they revive CCHQ as a campaign machine against the backdrop of dwindling donations and a shrinking membership? 

Tory MPs will whittle down the pack to just two candidates on 9-10th October, with party members choosing their leader between 15th and 31st October. Although Party Conference was a big opportunity for contenders to set out their stalls, there’s still all to play for in what is perhaps the most open-ended Conservative leadership contest for some time. If there’s anything we have learnt from the leadership drama that has engulfed the Conservatives over the past few years, it’s that a week is a long time in politics. 

Despite jubilant singalongs in the bars of Liverpool to Keir Mather MP playing Chappell Roan, or Oliver Coppard’s playlist of Sheffield’s greatest hits, the mood on the conference floor was far from Hot To Go (for those over 35, that is a Chappell Roan reference). 

Conference tension 

After 14 years in opposition, the party is still adjusting to the machinery of government. Amidst briefings against Starmer’s top team, scrutiny on donations, and the winter fuel allowance fallout, the party leadership urgently needed to take control of the conference mood to inject enthusiasm and confidence in this Government’s direction. 

The day after conference, however, the media still isn’t finished with stories around donations, and with the Budget and Spending Review around the corner, there lacked a major policy announcement that may have changed the mood music.  

A Long Term Strategy

That lack of major policy announcement was quite deliberate. While the electorate were treated to a flurry of announcements in the Government’s first weeks – think 1.5 million homes targets, planning and onshore wind overhaul, GB energy launch, junior doctor’s pay deal – Number 10 wants to move towards a mission led rather than announcement driven approach to governing. 

What do the 200 odd newbie MPs think? Behind the scenes of the somewhat ‘green’ Parliamentary party there is some frustration – with new MPs worried about what they see as a failure to explain the Government’s strategic direction and to shut down unhelpful stories quickly. 

Looking ahead: Labour’s next steps 

It wasn’t all doom and gloom. It was the party’s best attended conference to date, and across fringes, there were positive noises from industry regarding the stability that has returned to policy delivery and commitments to long-term strategy bringing the investor confidence so sought after by Number 11’s growth mission. 

To shore up this stability, ministers and MPs alike stuck steadfast to key messages and top lines. As a result, businesses are struggling to break through the headlines and get clear answers to more granular policy challenges. For some attendees, Business Day also didn’t bring the clarity they hoped for, owing to disappointment at minimal ministerial engagement during the event. Despite very positive reviews of its approach prior to the election, the Government needs to be careful not to be seen to be going backwards in its approach to business engagement. 

Despite these challenges, Starmer’s ask of membership and industry at conference was clear – be patient with me as I make the tough decisions needed to course correct 14 years of Conservative government. But with so many unforced errors in less than 40 days sitting time, there remains concern amongst MPs and the wider membership. 

What next? To steal a nautical reference from Wes Streeting, all eyes now fix on the October budget to blow some wind in Labour’s sails. 

To speak to our Public Affairs team, please contact Alan Boyd-Hall, Head of Public Affairs: alan.boyd-hall@grayling.com 

Wendy Chamberlain belting out an ‘Ode to Liz Truss’ at Glee Club perfectly encapsulated this year’s Lib Dem Conference. To a packed room of die-hard members, horrified first-time attendees (including your author) and a large pack of lobby journalists, the Lib Dems’ Chief Whip asked the mostly cheering audience to Lettuce Be…

So, lettuce be honest – the mood throughout Conference was jubilant. Many of the party’s new MPs were clearly revelling in the spotlight after winning the truss-t (I’m sorry) of their constituents in dozens of former Conservative seats. The dramatic change in electoral fortunes saw a bumper turnout in Brighton of members, national journalists and business representatives – with many of the latter attending their first Lib Dem Conference. Indeed, some attendees were even observed circling events asking anyone dressed smartly if they were a new MP.

The Lib Dems deployed a ruthlessly efficient and effective election campaign, targeting seats instead of votes. Candidates focussed on just a few core policy issues which successfully tapped into the public’s exhaustion with the Conservative Government – specifically health and social care, and sewage. But now, despite returning a record number of MPs, the party faces some fundamental questions on its future direction.

How will it maximise its new cohort of MPs? How will it shift from attacking the Conservatives? What sort of opposition will it present to Labour? What other policy issues will it focus on? Will the leadership finally give the membership what it wants and campaign more vocally on the UK’s relationship with the EU?

All the while, it will still have to consolidate the 59 seats it took from the Conservatives – and target even more. Next May’s local elections will be the first true test of its response, as all 21 county councils are up for grabs.

Sir Ed Davey sought to address some of these questions during his address to conference. He urged his party to “finish the job” of consigning the Conservatives to the history books, and suggested his party will be “careful scrutineers” of the Labour Government. He also received rapturous applause for urging Sir Keir Starmer to be more ambitious on Europe – perhaps a sign of things to come.

All of a sudden, public affairs teams will be considering how they engage with the largest third party in over 100 years. Navigating its various quirks – like its truly democratic and complex policy making process – and engaging a brand-new team of spokespeople will require a well-considered and targeted strategy.

To help you out, we’ve picked out five Lib Dems to watch out for, including key players, policy experts and future stars…

Wendy Chamberlain, MP for North East Fife and Chief Whip

Karaoke talents aside, Chamberlain has steadily risen up the ranks of the party since her election in 2019. From patrolling the streets of Fife to keeping Lib Dem MPs in check – Chamberlain served in the police force for over a decade before entering politics. She joined the Liberal Democrats in the aftermath of the 2015 UK General Election, at the party’s lowest ebb. Fast forward nine years, and she comfortably defended her seat with an increased majority in 2024. She is one of the Liberal Democrats’ trusted media performers and is likely to be one of the party’s public faces in the new term. She also plays the Scottish traditional sport of shinty, enjoying a game with Ed Davey on the campaign trail in one of his tamer election stunts!

Calum Miller, MP for Bicester and Woodstock and Foreign Affairs Spokesperson

The race for Bicester and Woodstock came down to two former colleagues. Former adviser to Nick Clegg and Liberal Democrat candidate, Miller narrowly edged Conservative Rupert Harrison, a former adviser to Chancellor George Osborne. After leaving Government, Miller held a series of senior civil service roles, before joining Oxford University as a senior fellow. Miller is trusted and respected by the Lib Dem leadership, not least for his rare experience in government. He was rewarded with the Foreign Affairs brief in this week’s reshuffle.

Helen Morgan, MP for North Shropshire and Health Spokesperson

Morgan shot into the national spotlight for, quite literally, bursting Boris’ bubble in December 2021. She overturned a historic majority of almost 23,000 votes from the Conservatives in the North Shropshire by-election and was an early pioneer of the Lib Dems’ election victory stunts. Her profile has steadily risen since, and she was a regular representative on national media during the 2024 election campaign. This week she was appointed Health spokesperson – a hugely important role in one of the party’s core policy areas and a major show of trust from the leadership.

Josh Babarinde OBE, MP for Eastbourne and Justice Spokesperson

Is there anything Josh Babarinde can’t do? Create a leading social enterprise, check. Forbes 30 under 30, check. Awarded an OBE for services to criminal justice, check. In July, he won back his home town seat of Eastbourne for the party from the Conservatives (and his former primary school teacher!). For the past two years, Babarinde has helped lead the Lib Dem campaign to tackle sewage spills, appearing regularly on national and regional media. He is also to blame for pushing Ed Davey off a different paddleboard at last year’s Conference! Josh is perhaps already a star in Lib Dem circles. But at just 31, he represents the party’s next generation, and is certainly one to watch as a national figure.

Baroness Pidgeon MBE, Liberal Democrat Peer

Caroline Pidgeon is no stranger to front-line politics. She was first elected as a Liberal Democrat councillor in the 1998 local election, and stood down as a London Assembly Member in 2024. Pidgeon is a true transport policy expert, having chaired the London Assembly’s Transport Committee and led multiple campaigns, including to make the Elizabeth Line level boarding. On the day of this year’s election, she was appointed to the House of Lords, and will be an important figure on all issues London and transport.

If you have any questions about engaging with the Liberal Democrats, please contact Alexis King: alexis.king@grayling.com  

Scotland’s political landscape changed on July 4^th.

The SNP, who had won every national election since 2011, were humbled across the urban Central Belt, with a resurgent Scottish Labour claiming 37 of Scotland’s 57 seats, leaving the SNP clinging on narrowly to a few strongholds and banished to the margins of the House of Commons from being the third largest party.

At the SNP’s recent conference, First Minister John Swinney and Westminster leader Stephen Flynn both faced up to the result, arguing the party could not make excuses and must change its approach.

Swinney specifically committed to “campaigning on an independence platform deeply intertwined with people’s everyday concerns” – to intertwine a domestic policy offer on areas of Scottish Government responsibility with the broader constitutional goal of Scottish independence. It remains to be seen whether this approach will resonate with the Scottish public in practice.

Labour’s Path to Power: Can They Capitalise on SNP’s Decline in 2026?

Anas Sarwar, the victorious Scottish Labour leader, meanwhile, has repeatedly stressed that the Westminster election was just the first stage of a two-stage campaign, with the ultimate aim being the 2026 Holyrood election, which could see Labour form a government in the Scottish Parliament for the first time since 2007.

Sarwar, unlike Flynn or Swinney, could take heart from the UK wide result – in addition to UK Labour’s success, a common thread across the entire election was that it allowed voters to punish incumbent political parties in each nation of the UK.

Labour’s one-word election slogan, “Change”, leaned into this sentiment clearly.

With the SNP having been in office in Scotland for seventeen years, longer than the Conservatives’ period of dominance at Westminster, will this change message resonate a second time, with Scotland due to head to the polls in eighteen months’ time. Will Keir Starmer’s message still be fresh in 2026 and record strong enough to help Sarwar become First Minister?

Data from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey suggests that it might, with the Scottish public specifically dissatisfied with the Scottish Government’s current performance on devolved issues.

On a range of indicators, the electorate’s belief in the Scottish Government itself has declined significantly since 2019, an important factor considering the 2021 Holyrood election took place when Covid-19 vaccine deployment was boosting incumbent governments across the globe.

Trust in the Scottish Government has declined to 47%, its lowest level since data collection began in 1999. Satisfaction with the performance of the NHS in Scotland, a key devolved responsibility, has also fallen dramatically in the past five years, with 52% of the public expressing dissatisfaction. On the economy, the figures are even more dramatic, with 83% of the Scottish population believing their standard of living had declined in the last 12 months, the highest figures yet recorded.

Fragmented Politics: What Scotland’s New Political Landscape Means for Labour’s Holyrood Ambitions

However, while Labour won a resounding victory in terms of seats, both vote share and the distribution of those votes within particular seats point to a closer and more uncertain contest in 2026.

Labour’s vote share in Scotland at the election, of 35.3%, is a similar figure to their results at the Holyrood election of 2003, where Labour defeated an SNP led by John Swinney, but won 50 seats – well short of the 65 MSPs needed for a majority – and required a coalition with the Scottish Liberal Democrats to govern. While Labour’s seat total at Westminster is undeniably impressive, on vote share they are not close to emulating the SNP’s dominant performances throughout the last decade.

Additionally, beyond the SNP-Labour battle, the General Election performances of the Scottish Green Party, Liberal Democrats and even Reform UK point to a more fractious and fragmented Scottish Parliament in the coming term, with those parties posing a much more significant challenge to both Labour and the SNP under Holyrood’s more proportional voting system.

Moreover, while some evidence shows that some pro-independence voters crossed over to vote for Labour in 2024, it is unclear whether this will be a permanent shift, or a temporary swing in the context of a UK-wide election where Labour sought to replace the Conservatives at a UK-wide level.

The First Minister’s announcements this week in the Scottish Parliament, confirming severe budget cuts for which he pinned blame on the UK Government, and pledging to “do less, better” in the Scottish Government’s legislative programme, illustrated the depth of the challenge ahead in winning back the key voters who created the sweeping victories the SNP enjoyed under Nicola Sturgeon. Time is running for the SNP to prove it’s still Scotland’s best option.

If you would like to receive Grayling Scotland’s full analysis of the Scottish Government’s Programme for Government, please contact the Public Affairs team at ScotlandTeam@grayling.com.