On June 9, 2024, Hungary held two significant elections: voters simultaneously elected members of the European Parliament and municipal representatives. The campaign season was marked by political turmoil. A paedophilia scandal in February not only led to the resignation of President Novák but also severely eroded public support for Fidesz. Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz insider and ex-husband of former Justice Minister Varga (who also resigned due to the scandal), seized the opportunity to launch a public attack against Fidesz and founded his new TISZA party.

In May, Grayling Hungary prepared an election forecast to help our clients navigate this turbulent period. Our analysis was informed by insights from the country’s leading political analysts, pollsters, and social scientists. We distributed our questionnaire to experts from across the political spectrum, ensuring diverse perspectives. The survey asked them to estimate how many seats each Hungarian political party would secure in the European Parliament, predict the outcome of the mayoral race in Budapest, and identify cities where results were expected to be particularly close. Additionally, we invited experts to elaborate on their expectations, including the potential impact of the newly established TISZA party.

Why did we prepare our forecast?

In spring 2024, there was a high level of uncertainty due to the rapid pace of political developments and the fragmentation of the opposition landscape. Another source of uncertainty was the questionable predictive power of publicly available election polls in Hungary. Before the last parliamentary elections, both government-affiliated and independent pollsters overestimated support for the joint opposition by 4 to 11 percentage points and underestimated Fidesz support by 2 to 5 percentage points, according to Gábor Tóka’s estimations published in the Social Report 2022. However, it is important to note that polling averages were relatively accurate in predicting the results of the 2019 European elections, the 2018 general elections, and, as later confirmed, the 2024 European Parliament elections. Given these dynamics, we believed it would be valuable to survey experts on their expectations, as they can draw on data and insights unavailable to the public. Furthermore, our survey allowed room for experts to speculate on potential shifts in public sentiment. Most importantly, respondents were able to provide explanations for their predictions.

The proof of the pudding

In our forecast, we highlighted both the overall range of expert expectations for the distribution of MEP seats and the median predictions for each party. The expert narratives, as well as Grayling’s local insights, emphasized the significance of Péter Magyar and suggested that the TISZA party could fundamentally reshape the Hungarian party system. However, the experts slightly underestimated the magnitude of the political shift caused by TISZA’s emergence. While the median expectation was 10 seats for Fidesz and 6 seats for TISZA, both parties exceeded these predictions by winning an additional MEP seat each. In contrast, the DK-MSZP-Dialogue alliance secured only 2 MEP seats, falling short of the 3 seats expected by the experts. Consistent with the forecast, the far-right Our Homeland party gained one MEP seat, while Momentum, Jobbik, and the Green LMP all failed to return to the European Parliament. Many experts also predicted that the satirical Dog Party would win its first EP seat, but it fell short with only 2.6% of the vote.

Grayling Poll of Experts forecast and the results of the European elections

*DK, MSZP and Dialogue run together, but only DK gained MEP seats as a result of the alliance’s poor electoral performance.

We also compared the median forecast of experts surveyed by Grayling to the expected distribution of Hungarian MEP seats based on the final publicly available polls from various Hungarian research institutes. Like our median forecast, most polls underestimated the number of EP seats TISZA would secure. On average, predictions based on public opinion research were closer to Fidesz’s actual results than our experts’ median forecast.

Grayling’s May forecast proved to be as accurate as predictions from Medián Institute’s early June poll, as well as Századvég, Társadalomkutató’s May polls, and Iránytű’s April poll, with all forecasts deviating from the actual results by 4 seats. The least accurate poll was Republikon’s from late April, while 21 Research Center’s innovative “last minute” poll perfectly predicted the MEP seat distribution. Other polls released in late May or early June were also slightly more accurate than the median forecast of our expert survey.

Predicted distribution of Hungarian MEP seats

*Hungarian pollsters’ publicly available researches before the European election.

Projection is based on share of respondents who planned to vote in a given poll. Date is the middle of data collection.

Source: Vox Populi / Gábor Tóka, 21 Research Center

Drama in Budapest, fog in the countryside

We also evaluated the surveyed experts’ expectations regarding the municipal elections. Gergely Karácsony, the government-critical mayor of Budapest, was re-elected by a narrow margin of only 293 votes, following three recounts. Out of 14 responses, 11 experts accurately predicted this outcome, while 3 opted for his third-party challenger, Dávid Vitézy. Notably, two analysts who expected Vitézy to win correctly predicted that the governing Fidesz’s candidate, Alexandra Szentkirályi would withdraw from the race.

In the countryside, the majority of experts anticipated tight races in rural cities such as Győr, Eger, Szolnok, and Nyíregyháza. However, the races in Miskolc, Tatabánya, and Hódmezővásárhely turned out to be less competitive than many had expected. There are several, not necessarily mutually exclusive reasons why there was a high level of uncertainty regarding the municipal elections. First, the attention of political media is overly focused on Budapest, and local media significantly weakened in Hungary. Second, there is a lack of publicly available, reliable, local quality polls. Third, in many cases, the race was hard to oversee, as new political fronts opened in some rural towns (and also Budapest districts), where both the opposition and the government side was divided.