After a decade of drift under the administrations of Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf, the Scottish Government’s relationship with the business community has improved. Under the stewardship of First Minister John Swinney and Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, the pair have steadied the SNP ship and refocused the party on prioritising economic growth.

With the next Scottish Parliamentary elections just eight months away, the SNP is in full campaign mode. Despite a challenging backdrop, current polling (30% to 35%) suggests the SNP is on course to remain the largest party, albeit falling short of the majority target. With overall public support for independence hovering around 50%, the strategy pins its hopes on coaxing independence voters back under the SNP banner to help win a fifth term in office. Independence is back on the agenda, but devolution appears to be the main focus.

The upcoming SNP Business Day on September 12th offers businesses a valuable opportunity to engage with key decision-makers in Scotland. However, questions will abound about whether the SNP can boost Scotland’s productivity and deliver economic growth.

Independence is back on the agenda

In July, the First Minister announced that the only way to secure another independence referendum is if the SNP wins a majority of seats – 65 out of 129 – in Holyrood. On first glance, the prospect of another referendum may give businesses pause after a decade of political instability across the UK. However, this self-imposed target sets an extremely high electoral bar in a voting system designed to prevent outright majorities. The strategy also considers only SNP votes valid rather than other pro-independence party votes and this has caused internal tensions within 43 SNP branches. Such a strategy means that independence might not be front and centre of the debate in the coming election but still might unnerve many in the business community.

Kate Forbes to step down – what happens next?

Business confidence in the SNP has definitely taken a dip following the Economy Secretary’s surprising announcement last month that she will step down from the Scottish Parliament in May for family reasons. Forbes is widely credited by the business community as the party’s lynchpin in restoring effective government-business communication. Her decision to step back from frontline politics also reopens the debate about the SNP’s next leader, with Màiri McAllan and Stephen Flynn as clear contenders. Both would be expected to maintain the party’s current pro-business message.

Closer cooperation with business and the impact of the UK Government

Swinney and Forbes have brought the SNP firmly back to the centre ground following a series of ill-fated policies developed with the Scottish Greens, including the botched Deposit Return Scheme. This led to the collapse of the power-sharing Bute House Agreement and ultimately sealed Yousaf’s resignation as First Minister last year after just 13 months. And while the SNP and Labour are cooperating on economic policy, the upcoming Budget on 26^th November is likely to result in a serious rift between the parties.

Going for growth

There are few major economic opportunities for Scotland, but there can be little doubt that the nation’s ports, defence and energy sectors are best primed for growth. The SNP have successfully positioned Scotland as a global centre for green and sustainable finance and investment. The offshore ScotWind auction raised £700mil in 2022 and will continue to be a key driver of economic activity. Ports are also likely to be major beneficiaries from the UK Government spending on defence. Aligning Scotland’s industrial base with the UK Government’s industrial strategy will enable the SNP to benefit from UK funding at a time when the fiscal position is likely to remain very tight.

Planning and Infrastructure

There is real appetite in the UK Government to bring about much-needed planning reform to help pave the way for major infrastructure projects. The appetite seems less in Scotland for legislative change but a new infrastructure investment plan would be expected in 2025/26 and the Scottish Government is committed to continuing to reform the planning system to enable more house building and reform compulsory purchase orders.

At the crossroads

The departure of Forbes shouldn’t derail the party’s commitment to sustainable economic growth but with external financial pressures and internal pro-independence pressures, can the party deliver a pro-business government after the election? The Party’s Business Day might be the best opportunity for businesses to lobby for change.

Want to stay ahead?

At Grayling Scotland, we specialise in helping businesses navigate the complexities of Scotland’s evolving political landscape. With the 2026 Holyrood elections poised to bring significant changes, engaging proactively and strategically is more important than ever.

We’ve designed an election survival kit, find out more by getting in touch with the team today at ScotlandTeam@Grayling.com