So, there we have it. After months of leaks, pre-briefings and general hysteria, the Chancellor has finally delivered her 2025 Budget. And it was…. fine?

It should be no surprise that the leakiest Budget in living memory (quite the achievement considering the dripping tap of pre-Budget announcements in recent years) was preceded by the mother of all leaks. The OBR’s blunder left the absurd and unprecedented situation of political analysts reading out the Chancellor’s Budget in TV studios before Reeves had even stood up. This was a huge gift to the Opposition, who could spend the 70 minutes or so that the Chancellor was at the despatch box browsing the document to inform their response.

The biggest fallout from this sorry affair might just be the beginning of the end for the OBR. As all sufferers of premature e-publication will know, the red faces and numerous mumbled and sheepish apologies will not be able to turn back the clock. This monumental error could give the Chancellor just the excuse she needs to lay to rest the much loathed (in Labour circles at least) quango. Watch this space.

And to the content of the Budget itself. We were promised a smorgasbord of taxes – and this was most certainly delivered. There was a mansion tax (avoid Myleene Klass today if at all possible), continuation of frozen income tax thresholds, gambling taxes, an excise duty for electric cars and a pensions raid – to name just a few! All this allowed the Chancellor to increase spending and give herself that much treasured headroom. This is part of her bid to try and keep her promise to business (at the second time of asking) that she won’t be coming back for more money; absolutely crucial as we head towards a General Election.

In the immediate aftermath, it feels less of a ‘smorgashambles’ and more of a ‘bitty Budget’ designed to keep the show on the road… at least for now. In truth, it’s hard to tell who this Budget was for. There was certainly some red meat for Labour backbenchers and members alike with the abolition of the hated two-child cap. The more cynical among us might believe this is being done with one eye on a leadership

challenge in May, and perhaps that’s what this

Budget was really about. There’s also some more cash for the devolved nations, just as we’re heading towards the polls.

But aside from that, not many will be walking away with a spring in their step. Businesses are still lumped with an ever-increasing tax bill and the threat of rising business costs. The biggest threat to the Government will be the extent to which the Opposition and right-wing press land their accusations that the Budget is a win for ‘Benefits Street’ – especially as welfare spending is now set to balloon by £73bn to over £400bn in the next five years.

So, how will this Budget really land once the dust has settled? The wonks and the hacks are already pouring over the details in a bid to find a pasty tax moment – all the more possible when we consider the sheer volume of taxes being handed out, which naturally increases the likelihood of unintended consequences. But if Reeves manages to avoid any hidden pitfalls, she and her team might consider this a job well done. Backbenchers somewhat happy, devolved leaders able to brag on the election trail that they secured more cash for their respective country’s coffers, and members getting their biggest wish granted, may just be enough to stave off rumoured leadership coups for now. But did this Budget comprehensively land the Labour vision for growth? On that metric, there a still a big job to be done.

To get in touch with our Public Affairs team, please contact: leo.watson@grayling.com.