By José Arroyo, Senior Consultant | Brussels, European Union

On 27 November 2024, the European Parliament approved Ursula von der Leyen’s new 27-member European Commission, set to take office on 1 December for a five-year term. This marks a significant win for von der Leyen and her centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), as Parliament approved all proposed Commissioners – a first since 1999 – despite a contentious confirmation process.

In her speech prior to the vote, von der Leyen reaffirmed the new Commission’s focus on improving the competitiveness of Europe’s economy, with a “Competitiveness Compass” based on former ECB President Mario Draghi’s report. She said this plan will aim to close the innovation gap with the US and China, include a joint plan for decarbonisation and competitiveness, and increase Europe’s security and reduce its dependence on third countries.

Von der Leyen’s programme is ambitious and represents a shift from last mandate’s focus on the EU Green Deal, but she may face challenges in implementing it. In addition to weak governments in France and Germany and geopolitical risks such as Trump’s re-election, the Commission will have to navigate a divided Parliament in which both centrist and right-wing alliances are possible. This risks the executive being caught in the crossfire, satisfying neither and being attacked by both. The fact that von der Leyen’s “college” of Commissioners was approved by a historically thin margin is a cautionary tale.

Von der Leyen 2.0 – a shift to the right

Parliament voted with 370 votes in favour, 282 against and 36 abstentions, to approve the new Commission – a drop from von der Leyen’s 401 votes in her July re-election. The reduced support reflects a change in alliances with a clear turn to the right for the EU. Some Greens and Socialists opposed to the inclusion of far-right Commissioners like Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi and Italy’s Raffaele Fitto voted against this new Commission even after supporting von der Leyen in July. At the same time, the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), who didn’t endorse her back then, provided crucial backing, seeking greater influence through Fitto’s appointment as Executive Vice-President of this new European Commission.

This shift highlights the growing presence of right-wing groups in Parliament. While the EPP traditionally works with the Socialists (S&D) and Liberals (Renew), since the election it has increasingly turned to alliances with ECR and other conservative factions, such as the far-right Patriots for Europe, on key votes. This trend could continue and pose the risk of the Commission being caught in the crossfire between two competing blocks and failing to satisfy either. The fact that the executive was approved with the smallest share of yeses and the highest share of noes since Parliament first got a vote in 1995 is telling.

The mentioned rightwards turn is also reflected in the Commission itself. By party affiliation, the outgoing Commission had at the beginning of its mandate in 2019 10 EPP Commissioners, 9 from the S&D, 6 from Renew, 1 from the Greens and 1 from ECR. The incoming one will have 14 EPP Commissioners, 4 from S&D, 5 from Renew, from 1 ECR, 1 from the Patriots, and 2 independents.

Contentious confirmation process

The approval process for the new Commission required each Commissioner-designate to present their plans to European Parliament committees. While the hearings initially proceeded smoothly, tensions emerged on 12 November, the final day, as the six Vice-Presidents faced Parliament.

The EPP, the largest group in Parliament, withheld support for Spanish socialist Teresa Ribera’s nomination as Executive Vice-President for a Clean, Just, and Competitive Transition. They demanded she first appear before the Spanish Parliament to address her handling of recent catastrophic floods in Valencia, as she had still been Spain’s Minister for the Ecological Transition. Simultaneously, the centre-left S&D and liberal Renew groups expressed reservations about Hungarian Health and Animal Welfare Commissioner-designate Olivér Várhelyi, citing his ties to Viktor Orbán and vague responses during his hearing. The S&D also opposed Italian nominee Raffaele Fitto’s appointment as Executive Vice-President for Cohesion and Reforms due to his affiliation with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s far-right ECR.

After a week of intense bargaining with seven confirmations hanging in the balance, a deal was struck on 20 November between the EPP, S&D, and Renew to approve the remaining candidates. A “Platform Cooperation Statement” was signed, reaffirming support for von der Leyen’s Political Guidelines and committing to cooperation throughout the Parliament’s term. Compromises included stripping Várhelyi of certain health-related responsibilities and reassigning them to Belgian Commissioner Hadja Lahbib. In turn, Fitto remains Executive Vice-President and the EPP accepted Ribera with no changes to her broad portfolio.

Ultimately, the EPP emerged as the big winner of the process. It secured the approval of von der Leyen’s Commission with minimal concessions, preserving Fitto’s elevated role while gaining flexibility to form ad-hoc alliances with right-wing groups such as the ECR and Patriots for Europe. This freedom allows the EPP to bypass Renew and S&D on key votes, as it has already demonstrated since the election. This outcome provoked criticism from the Greens and some Socialists, who stated they would not be bound by the agreement signed by their Spanish leader Iratxe García.

Promises to reignite Europe’s competitiveness

Before the vote, von der Leyen outlined her team’s focus on boosting EU competitiveness over the next five years, guided by a new “Competitiveness Compass” inspired by Mario Draghi’s report warning of Europe’s economic lag behind the US and China.

Key priorities include closing the innovation gap through increasing investment in research and development, removing barriers for startups, and leading in frontier technologies with a unified tax framework. She pledged a Clean Industrial Deal within 100 days to lower energy costs and support the automotive sector’s green transition.

Von der Leyen also stressed diversifying supply chains for critical raw materials, reducing dependence on China and Russia, and expanding trade partnerships. To address the EU’s investment gap, she proposed simplifying funding mechanisms, launching a Saving and Investments Union, cutting regulatory burdens, and upskilling Europe’s workforce to enhance competitiveness.

Ambitious programme but major challenges await

Von der Leyen’s programme is clearly ambitious and represents a shift from last mandate’s focus on the EU Green Deal. While the Commission is not abandoning its decarbonisation objectives, its attention is clearly moving towards reigniting the bloc’s economic competitiveness.

However, weak governments in the EU’s biggest countries Germany and France, a likely snap German election in February, and geopolitical risks – such as Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency – could derail von der Leyen’s agenda. Furthermore, navigating a Parliament divided between centrist and right-wing alliances will require careful negotiation to prevent a stalemate.

Despite these challenges, securing the Commission’s approval without any rejections marks a significant victory for von der Leyen and the EPP, solidifying their leadership and influence for the next five years.

Image © European Union 2024 – Source : EP