How will the US election influence the CEE region?

The outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election will resonate far beyond American borders. No matter who becomes the next president of the United States, the election outcome will have profound and complex effects on the political, economic, and cultural dynamics of Central and Eastern Europe. To explore these potential impacts, Grayling’s local public affairs teams across 10 countries in the CEE region have prepared a comprehensive overview. The report’s context was set by an editorial from our Washington team at Dutko Government Relations.

Security challenges

The stakes of the U.S. elections are naturally highest for Ukraine, given the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. If Kamala Harris wins and the Democratic majority in Congress is preserved, no significant changes in policy are expected. However, if Harris wins but both houses of Congress are controlled by Republicans, delays in assistance to Ukraine might occur. The degree of delay would be directly proportional to the number of Trump supporters in Congress. Predicting Trump’s actions is challenging. The most likely scenario involves initial attempts to initiate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, using leverage to reduce military and financial support to Ukraine. Depending on Ukraine’s resilience and the initiative of European allies, if Ukraine refuses negotiations and the EU compensates for part of the American support, Trump may reconsider his stance. A potential reduction in U.S. support might lead to a recalibration of Ukraine’s foreign policy, seeking stronger ties with European allies and other global partners.

US Military Presence (Military Personnel per Million Local Residents)

Source: Statista/US Department of Defense: Number of active duty military personnel in Europe, World Bank: Population data (gender statistics)

However, not only Ukraine, but the entire CEE region depends on the U.S., though to varying degrees. This dependency is captured by the Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity Index, a comprehensive metric developed by the Atlantic Council. This index and other indicators reveal that many countries in the region rely on the U.S. as both an economic partner and a security provider, indirectly through Germany. While there are about 600 active U.S. military personnel in the CEE region, Germany hosts the largest number of American troops—35,068 personnel. Although Pentagon officials may resist troop withdrawals, a potential Trump presidency could lead to reductions. Many countries in the region prepared for a Trump presidency by increasing their defence spendings and purchasing U.S. arms and military equipment.

US Influence Capacity (FBIC INDEX, 2020)

Source: Atlantic Council, Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity Index

Another concern is that some CEE countries, particularly Hungary, are deepening their ties with China. This could lead to challenges for either a Harris or Trump administration. Tensions with the U.S. are likely to escalate if “China hawks” gain influence within the State Department, regardless of who becomes president.

US impact on the economy

The region’s reliance on the U.S. is also reinforced through the German economy, a major U.S. trading partner, with nearly 10% of Germany’s exports going to the U.S. If Trump’s proposed protective tariffs on all foreign goods were implemented, Slovakia would be impacted most directly, as 4.5% of its exports were destined for the U.S. in 2023. Poland (3.1%) and Hungary (2.9%) also have notable levels of direct export dependency on the U.S. However, it’s important to note that a broad trade conflict would more likely affect the region indirectly, through its wider impact on the global economy. While Harris is also expected to pursue protectionist policies, her approach would likely be narrower, focusing on supporting U.S. manufacturing and reducing dependence on China.

Share of US in the export of goods

Source: Eurostat: Trade with the United States by EU Member States; Eurostat: International trade, by reporting country, total product; National Bank of Ukraine: External Trade; Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia: External Trade of Goods, EUR, 2023

Although trade balance is a lesser concern for mainstream economists, it carries significant political weight. During his first term, Donald Trump placed a strong emphasis on reducing the U.S. trade deficit and preventing other countries from “ripping off America”—suggesting that a large trade surplus could be a potential disadvantage if Trump were to win. In this regard, Germany is in the most precarious position, with a trade surplus of €85.8 billion with the United States. Most CEE countries also run trade surpluses with the U.S., with Slovakia having the largest surplus in 2023 at €4.22 billion. In contrast, Ukraine (€2.51 billion), Croatia (€480 million), and Serbia (€29 million) all have trade deficits with the US.

Trade balance of goods with the United States, 2023 (billion EUR)

Source: Eurostat: Trade with the United States by EU Member States; Eurostat: International trade, by reporting country, total product; National Bank of Ukraine: External Trade; Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia: External Trade of Goods, EUR, 2023

U.S.-CEE economic cooperations are expected to continue, especially in the energy sector. Croatia is working on expanding LNG capacity near the island of Krk, supported by the U.S. Although the project has been recently halted, Grayling expects that U.S. support for LNG will continue no matter the election outcome. One of the cornerstone initiatives of U.S.-Bulgarian cooperation is the collaboration in nuclear energy, which includes the construction of the seventh and eighth units of the Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). In Romania, an important U.S. project is the deployment of SMR nuclear reactors (expected to be completed by 2029). The project to build Poland’s first nuclear power plant, initiated by President Trump, has also gained support from Vice President Harris. Now, Poland is planning to construct its second nuclear power plant, with potential involvement from U.S. suppliers.

Conclusion

A Trump victory could weaken the region’s security through a more transactional approach to NATO and Russia. Economically, protectionist U.S. policies and potential shifts in energy and trade partnerships could create instability. Culturally, Trump’s support for nationalist, anti-migration, and anti-liberal rhetoric may further embolden right-wing movements. Ultimately, CEE countries might need to navigate a more uncertain transatlantic relationship under another Trump administration.

A Kamala Harris victory in the 2024 election would likely reinforce the U.S.’s role as a committed partner to the CEE region, particularly in matters of security, trade, and democratic governance. Politically, it would reassure CEE nations of continued U.S. support against Russian aggression and strengthen NATO’s presence. Economically, it would promote closer transatlantic ties, encourage investment in green energy, and sustain sanctions against Russia. However, Harris’s progressive stance on issues such as migration, LGBTQ+ rights, and democracy could lead to tensions with some conservative governments in CEE.

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