By Samu Märcz | COO, PA Director – Grayling Hungary

Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary elections could redefine the country’s political and economic trajectory – and its role in Europe. The stakes are high: after more than a decade of Fidesz dominance, the newly ascendant TISZA Party poses the most formidable challenge yet to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. What happens in April will shape Hungary’s domestic governance and its position within the EU for years to come.

SUMMARY

• Polls remain sharply polarized: government-aligned pollsters show Fidesz ahead, while independent surveys place TISZA in the lead.
• Averaging across sources, a simple majority for TISZA appears most likely – provided no legal or procedural obstructions occur.
• Fidesz could still secure a narrow majority if its disciplined turnout machine and welfare spending outperform TISZA’s less coordinated campaign.
• The era of Orbán’s two-thirds supermajorities is likely over, with neither party expected to reach that threshold without major disruptions.
• Businesses should prepare for volatility, mapping stakeholders early, monitoring policy developments, and adopting proactive compliance strategies.
• The campaign will be heated, with AI-generated misinformation and deep polarization fueling tensions. If results are close, the losing party may contest the outcome, alleging foreign interference or fraud, and mobilize supporters in the streets. 

FIDESZ SCENARIOS

Simple majority
Still plausible if Fidesz’s disciplined turnout and sovereignty-focused messaging outperform TISZA. Governance would be incremental, relying on windfall taxes and targeted subsidies. The legal state-of-danger – which has enabled decree-based rule since the pandemic – is expected to end, forcing Fidesz to rely more on budget acts and sector-specific regulation.

Supermajority
A low-probability outcome requiring a dramatic collapse of TISZA or severe opposition fragmentation. If achieved, expect rapid cabinet consolidation, constitutional amendments, and intensified control over media and civil society. Foreign policy would lean toward sovereignty, minimal EU compliance, and deeper ties with China and Russia. Regulatory acceleration would increase sector-specific risks, especially in energy, finance, telecoms, and retail.

5% is the parliamentary threshold in Hungary. 

The visualization is based on the collection of Hungarian polls by Gábor Tóka (Vox Populi). Projected vote share follows Tóka’s method, estimating the average of party support among certain and all voters. Trend lines are LOESS-smoothed. 

Source: Tóka, Gábor, 2025. ‘Vox Populi választási kalauz.’ http://kozvelemeny.wordpress.com  

Pollsters included: 21 Research Center, Center for Fundamental Rights, Forrás Társadalomkutató Intézet, IDEA Institute, Iránytű, Medián, Minerva, Nézőpont, Publicus, Real-PR 93, Republikon Institute, Századvég Foundation, McLaughlin & Associates, Társadalomkutató, Závecz Research. 

TISZA scenarios

Simple majority
Currently the most probable outcome if no major electoral rule changes occur. However, procedural friction is possible: the President could nominate a Fidesz candidate for Prime Minister, triggering parliamentary rejection and potential constitutional standoff. Even with a stable majority, TISZA faces internal cohesion challenges and fiscal constraints, though unlocking frozen EU funds could offer short-term relief. Foreign policy would pivot toward NATO and EU alignment, distancing from Russia and China.

Supermajority
Only plausible if Fidesz experiences a political crisis and refrains from last-minute legal maneuvers. Such a mandate would enable sweeping institutional reforms, including joining the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, overhauling procurement, and potentially drafting a new constitution. Foreign policy would shift decisively toward the West, reducing reliance on Russian energy and Chinese investment. Economic reforms would focus on public services, family support, and SME-friendly tax regimes.

Regional and EU implications

The outcome will reverberate across Europe.

• Orbán re-elected: Reinforces Eurosceptic alliances and V4 populism, bolstering the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament. Strong ties with AfD, National Rally, and Vox could amplify Hungary’s influence in EU debates on migration and enlargement.
• Magyar victorious: Marks Hungary’s reintegration into the EU mainstream. Judicial reforms could unlock frozen EU funds and restore credibility. Foreign policy would be more hawkish on Russia and China, aligning Hungary with core EU positions. A first state visit to Poland would signal a strategic reset in regional diplomacy.

As Hungarians often say, “much water will flow down the Danube” before April – but this time, the stakes are higher than ever. As April approaches, businesses and investors should monitor developments closely – the stakes have never been higher. The outcome will shape Hungary’s domestic trajectory and its place in Europe for years to come.

Download the full report to find out more.