After a busy few days in his hometown for Conservative Party Conference, Grayling’s Marcus Boyle provides an insight into the mood of the party, the state of the leadership race, and what could be next for the Conservatives. 

Going into Conservative Party Conference, there was an expectation amongst many that it would resemble a wake as the party licks its wounds following the mauling it suffered at the General Election.  

A Surprising Mood Shift: Optimism in Birmingham 

The mood on the ground in Birmingham, however, was cautiously upbeat and optimistic. Less than three months into a new Labour government, engulfed by a donations scandal and internal spats about policy and personnel, it felt as though party activists were relieved that the weight of governing, and the scrutiny and accountability that comes with it, had been lifted from weary shoulders.  

Now out of government, and with a much-reduced parliamentary party, there were notably fewer MPs and businesses in attendance. Instead, party activists were front and centre. There appeared to be a palpable sense of excitement amongst the party faithful at the chance to choose a new leader and chart a new course, which is perhaps unsurprising given the coronations and foregone conclusions that have characterised recent leadership contests. Given the bumpy start for the new No. 10 team after several missteps, Conservative Party Conference seemed to reflect a party daring to dream that we may even be heading for a one-term Labour Government. Although there’s a long way to go until 2029, the party is considering this leadership contest as an interview process for not only the next party leader, but for a potential Prime Minister too. Not so sure? Just look at 2019… 

It is an often-forgotten fact that, in the 2005 leadership contest, David Cameron went into Party Conference with public endorsements from just 14 MPs. Following an assured keynote speech without notes, and a series of successful engagements, Cameron left with triple the number of backers – and we all know how that ended.  

Leadership Contenders: Who’s Rising and Who’s Falling? 

In a similar vein to Cameron, James Cleverly is widely seen to have exceeded expectations this time around and has emerged as the dark horse in the leadership race. Cleverly’s pitch seemed focused on expanding the reach of the Conservatives to tentative centre-right voters, not just on the members already in the Conference Hall. He struck an optimistic tone throughout Party Conference as he urged the party to “be more normal” in his keynote speech, which received the longest standing ovation of all four contenders. Although Cleverly earned praise from the commentariat and saw his odds surge amongst the bookmakers, it remains to be seen whether Tory MPs and members will opt for Cleverly’s more moderate vision for the future of the party.  

If Party Conferences can make a candidate’s fortunes, they can also break them. Badenoch entered Conference as one of the leadership contest’s frontrunners. At Conference, she offered her familiar diagnosis of the Conservatives’ woes, calling for the “rewiring, rebooting, and reprogramming” of the British state and its institutions, amidst familiar attacks on socialism, net zero, and identity politics. However, Badenoch also made several controversial comments, from calling for tens of thousands of civil servants to be imprisoned to claiming that maternity pay is too high. Whilst her calls for a return to traditional conservative principles and a radical overhaul of the British state played well with the party grassroots, Tory MPs are said to be worried about her appeal to the wider electorate amidst a series of gaffes and controversies – and it is they who are the gatekeepers to the final round of the contest. 

Like Badenoch, Robert Jenrick was not immune from controversy after claiming that the SAS were killing, not capturing, terrorists because of fears that the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) would set them free. However, Jenrick delivered a largely assured string of appearances at Conference as he sought to pitch himself as the candidate of the party’s right wing. He offered plenty of red meat to the party grassroots, issuing a series of pledges to leave the ECHR, cap migration, cut foreign aid, and boost defence spending. He offered perhaps the most radical vision for the future of the party, channeling Blair’s New Labour strategy with his promise to establish “nothing less than a New Conservative Party”. Jenrick largely avoided any serious gaffes, and if his aim was to avoid any pitfalls that could jeopardise his status as the frontrunner in the race, he can generally be satisfied with how his Conference went. 

An outsider in the race prior to Conference, Tom Tugendhat needed a Cameron-esque standout moment to inject some momentum into his leadership bid. However, not even his innovative Tugend-Tan merch was sufficient to give lift-off to the MP for Tonbridge’s campaign. Throughout Conference, Tugendhat drew on his military experience to pitch himself as a party “leader, not manager”, and he made it through without any major gaffes. However, his lack of a standout moment, and the fact he already sits at the back of the pack with regards to MP endorsements, mean it is unlikely he will make it to the final two unless anything changes in the week leading up to the next MPs’ ballot. Tugendhat continued his tack to the Right with pledges to cap migration and reform ECHR, though this feels like a crowded space, with more established rivals such as Jenrick and Badenoch already having staked their claim to this territory. Despite this, Tugendhat cemented his status as a senior and experienced figure within the party, and one who is set to continue playing a prominent role in its senior echelons for years to come. 

Challenges Ahead: Rebuilding the Party for 2029 

On the final day of Conference, all four leadership candidates appeared together on the main stage, bringing to a close a Party Conference that was largely a tame affair when compared to the psychodrama and vitriol that has plagued the Conservative parliamentary party in recent years. 

Whoever wins the leadership contest, the new party leader faces a mammoth task. How will they simultaneously win back Reform and Liberal Democrat voters, whilst attracting younger voters? How will they heal internal party rifts in order to avoid the fates of so many of their predecessors? How will they revive CCHQ as a campaign machine against the backdrop of dwindling donations and a shrinking membership? 

Tory MPs will whittle down the pack to just two candidates on 9-10th October, with party members choosing their leader between 15th and 31st October. Although Party Conference was a big opportunity for contenders to set out their stalls, there’s still all to play for in what is perhaps the most open-ended Conservative leadership contest for some time. If there’s anything we have learnt from the leadership drama that has engulfed the Conservatives over the past few years, it’s that a week is a long time in politics.