Over 106 years of Labour party dominance in the south Wales constituency of Caerphilly came to a humbling end on Thursday, October 23, as the party placed third with their vote share falling to around 11%. Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle, appropriately nicknamed “Mr Caerphilly”, won the seat on his 14th attempt, securing 47.5% of the vote and a 3,848 majority over second-placed Llŷr Powell of Reform UK. Although there had been speculation that the result would be a close fight between Plaid and Reform, the outcome, on a high turnout of over 50%, was far more decisive than many had predicted.

Electoral Surprise

The result surprised many within Welsh politics and seemed to catch the UK-wide media even more off guard. Reports suggest that a Plaid victory was not seriously considered by national outlets. One image that captures the media’s focus is BBC Wales’ Teleri Glyn Jones interviewing Lindsay Whittle alone moments after his win, while Llŷr Powell was surrounded by microphones.

Focus on Government

This focus on Reform is unlikely to change in the lead-up to the Senedd Election in May. Many have suggested that Plaid Cymru, on current polling the most likely party to lead the next government, must be bold and vocal in presenting itself as an alternative to Welsh Labour. Although others warn that relying on a cautious strategy, similar to that used by Keir Starmer, could prove damaging. Momentum is crucial in elections; voters are more likely to support a party that looks likely to win. Plaid now faces the challenge of maintaining this momentum and positioning itself in place of Labour as the party of progressive politics in Wales. Following its by-election victory, Plaid will likely face increased media attention and scrutiny, which could prove both a curse and a blessing for the party in the months ahead.  Victory is not guaranteed, and not every constituency will have a candidate with the local presence and recognition of Lindsay Whittle, which was a significant factor in this result.

Political Lessons

The Caerphilly result, meanwhile, should serve as a warning to the central Labour Party and those close to Keir Starmer. While much attention has been given to Reform UK, Labour appear to be losing voters to parties on the left, namely Plaid Cymru in Wales and the Greens and Your Party in other parts of the UK. The result suggests that Labour’s overall strategy may need urgent reassessment, while some sources within the party believe this may come too late to boost the party’s flagging poll ratings in Wales.

Tactical Voting

Prior to the election, some had suggested that Plaid outperforming Labour but losing to Reform could benefit the party in the long term, as progressive voters might see it as the only viable option to block Reform from office. However, it appears tactical voting played a key role in the final by-election result. This tactic will not be possible at the next election under the new proportional system. With six members elected in each of the sixteen new super-constituencies, every vote will carry more weight. There are further potential unintended consequences – a Labour voter switching to Plaid to block Reform could inadvertently cost Labour a sixth seat, ultimately benefiting Reform. If Labour’s vote share here is replicated across Wales next spring, the party may struggle to win any seats in many constituencies. This scenario might also make it harder for Plaid Cymru to form a government with Labour as a junior partner.

Scrutiny

Reform’s failure to win the Caerphilly seat ultimately means that its Welsh policies and politicians will receive less scrutiny on the floor of the Senedd and the wider media in the lead up to May. This could benefit the party, allowing it to keep its UK leader, Nigel Farage, at the centre of its Senedd campaign.

Turnout

Turnout will undoubtedly be a major factor in the next election. If Reform is to convert its strong polling numbers into electoral success, it will need to mobilise its supporters more effectively than it did ahead of last week’s vote. In Caerphilly, the party reportedly encouraged only 63 new constituents to register to vote, suggesting its ground operation needs improvement. Predictions of Reform winning three or more seats in the new super-constituencies may seem optimistic, unless the party’s campaign infrastructure improves.

Six Months Out

The countdown to the next Senedd Election has truly kicked off, with only six months until polling day. As the Senedd expands to include 96 members and Labour’s dominance in Wales looks like it could be coming to an end, now is a highly advantageous moment for organisations that have yet to engage with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK to do so. Both parties are currently in the midst of their manifesto development processes and are keen to listen and engage, presenting an ideal opportunity to set out your key asks for the next Welsh Government.

If your organisation would like to talk about engaging in Welsh politics ahead of next year’s Senedd election. Contact Grayling’s Public Affairs team in Cardiff or reach out to: benjamin.hitchings@grayling.com.