Whisper it, Ed Davey might have a problem.

He is the most successful Lib Dem leader in 100 years, with the third largest group of MPs in Westminster. The party is consistently polling well in national polls, as Labour and the Conservatives falter. There are over 3,000 Liberal Democrat councillors, helping run 76 councils across the UK. His ruthlessly focussed strategy on a few core issues and target geographies since being elected leader was vindicated by last year’s stunning election success.

So, why then was there a palpable restlessness at Autumn Conference? This year felt a far cry from the scenes of celebration in Brighton last September. Whilst many members are still getting used to having even a frontbench and backbench of MPs again, Davey and his team were forced to answer questions about what is next for the party, and even from some corners of the media, whether he remains the right leader.

Conference was also overshadowed by the spectre of Reform UK. Irrespective of the policy area, MPs wasted no time mentioning the electoral threat posed by Nigel Farage, with Davey himself mentioning his counterpart over 40 times in his Conference speech. Reform is both a threat and a rallying cry to party activists. Lib Dem strategists feel they are well-placed to capitalise on stagnating support for the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, and to take the fight to Reform.

Davey’s speech was ambitious in setting the target to win more seats than the Conservatives. But the truth is that the party isn’t generating news in the way it did so successfully in the run up to the election last year. Whilst a local and issues-led approach delivered a stunning return in seats (if not votes) at the local elections, there is perhaps a sense of frustration that the party has no succinct answer to that age old question: what do the Lib Dems stand for?

The party is not short of policies – arguably the opposite – but it still lacks a consistent message that it can sell to the public. The Lib Dems have a tendency to create more policy when challenged on this; you may well be on the receiving end of a long list of policy positions rather than a succinct narrative. Senior Lib Dems draping themselves in St George’s flags feels like just that, a punchy tactic, rather than an obvious part of a coherent strategy.

In truth, this year’s Conference felt like a party soul-searching for where it goes next and ultimately how it responds to the rise of Reform in a five party system, which has stolen its place as the perennial third party disruptor (SNP notwithstanding). One option is to tack to the right and lean into Reform’s areas of strength, such as immigration or antisocial behaviour. Another, driven by younger and often urban voters joining from Labour or the Greens, is to focus on more liberal issues such as the environment or Gaza. Or most likely, we can expect them to maintain the hyper-local campaigning strategy whilst being selective about the national issues to focus on, such as foreign affairs and the UK’s relationship with Europe.

For public affairs audiences and political commentators, perhaps most notable was the seemingly smaller turnout from media and business. Despite its strong cohort of parliamentarians, there were only a handful of corporates taking exhibition stands, and what felt like the majority of public affairs representatives were also party supporters (your author included). On top of this, a reshuffle expected post-Conference will only frustrate those who successfully secured meetings with spokespeople – for roles and responsibilities to change.

The hospitality policy motion passed at Conference should be welcomed by the sector and expect more campaigning for small businesses in the run up to the Budget. But there is currently a major gap for a truly pro-business party, a status Labour enjoyed until roughly this time last year. Leveraging business support is absolutely essential to attracting the major donors and corporate funding the Lib Dems desperately need to target a wider selection of parliamentary seats.

In spite of the cynicism, there is no doubt that Ed Davey and his team have truly transformed the party into an effective and increasingly popular campaigning force. The Lib Dems are attracting new talent from the left and the right – indeed Labour risks losing more voters to the Lib Dems than Reform. There is also a deep bench of new-ish MPs that have not been fully introduced to the public. Long-term “rising star” Josh Babarinde looks set to become party President and keep your eyes peeled for the new line-up of spokespeople – expect prominent roles for some of the strongest performers this Parliament, such as Lisa Smart or Callum Miller.

Davey is right to be ambitious about next year’s local elections, and even looking ahead to the next general election. However, the more immediate challenge will be whether the Lib Dems can effectively capitalise on the antipathy towards the Labour Government and scepticism towards Reform.

To speak with our Public Affairs team about your Lib Dem engagement strategy, please contact: alexis.king@grayling.com.