“Quiet here, isn’t it?” is how many conversations in Manchester began this week. The Conservative Party Conference this year was certainly a smaller and quieter affair than it has been for a long time. With last year’s conference dedicated to the leadership contest, this is the first ‘ordinary’ Tory gathering in Opposition since 2009, and it felt noticeably different for it.

And once attendees had moved past discussion of how quiet Conference was, there was only one topic on everybody’s lips – the leadership. It is, of course, not unusual for Tories to speculate about changing their leader, whether in Government or Opposition. But consensus before Conference was very much that the departure of Kemi Badenoch as Leader is a matter of when, not if.

That being said, Badenoch and her team did everything they could to keep people talking about anything else, with what can only be described as a policy blitz over the course of the four days. Although this began with eye-catching (and expected) announcements designed to stave off the exodus of voters to Reform UK, such as leaving the ECHR and scrapping the Climate Change Act. But, as the Conference progressed, the focus shifted onto economic and domestic matters as a means to seriously differentiate the Conservatives from the other political parties.

Whilst the announcement of intentions to scrap stamp duty, reform business rates and rethink the judicial appointment process might not be ‘sexy politics’, they were part of a twofold strategy from the leadership. Firstly, the plan of holding policy back and just speaking about ‘values’ for the first few years has been clearly dropped, in a bid to try and get more engagement from the media. But more importantly, they indicate the Conservative Party’s policy direction moving forward, returning to their most comfortable ground – the economy.

Another oft-repeated line at Conference, by MPs and shadow ministers, was that the Tories are the only party right-of-centre on the economy. They know that talking about migration and cultural matters is important, but there is a growing consensus that they cannot “out-Reform Reform” on these topics, at least for now. So, by leaning into the economy, there is the hope that the Conservative Party can present itself as taking on the real concerns of voters, especially those in the South who might be looking toward the Lib Dems. Not only that, but this approach also allows them to have a concerted pop at the Government, whilst trying to reconnect with business. The challenge will, however, be when Labour – and indeed voters and industry – will retort with two simple words – “Liz Truss”.

But even with a change of leadership in the offing – MPs, aides and staffers are split on whether that is most likely to be in November (when the rules permit a formal challenge) or May (after the local elections) –  a refreshed focus on economic policy shows where the Conservative Party wants to be heading. With a diminished parliamentary cohort, the same figures will be playing a key role irrespective of the leadership over the course of this Parliament. Indeed, some of the new MPs, like Katie Lam or Harriett Cross, are making a name for themselves within the Party and across social media in particular with their strong communication and details-based approach. The small number of MPs means that each has more space to push the leadership, and indeed the Government, on policy areas of interest. Despite last year’s crushing electoral loss, a third of Tory MPs are new to Parliament, and stand ready to make their mark and have the space to do it.

The Conservative Party knows that it has a lot to do to regain the trust of voters and businesses, but Conference marked a shift in its approach to how it will do this. The question is how long the approach – and indeed the Leader – will be able to last if the polls don’t change?

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