Andy Burnham is the MP for Makerfield, and suddenly the centre of political gravity shifts from that cluster of suburbs in the North West of England and back to Westminster. Burnham will make his way south with his eyes now fixed on his next prize.

Makerfield was not an easy fight to pick. To Burnham’s credit, he did not wait for a safer seat and took on the challenge of fighting Reform in a seat they may otherwise have won comfortably. To win with 55% of the vote is an emphatic statement.  This will not only impress Labour MPs and members, but also voters who voted tactically in recent elections to stop Reform. They may now see a Burnham-led Labour Party as the best place for their ballot.

It was a gamble, but one that paid off.

What happens now?

Once Burnham is done adorning his new office with Everton memorabilia and Manchester mayoralty mementos he will have a significant decision to make.

Burnham wants to be Prime Minister, and he does not want to wait too long. Partly because of the impatience of ambition, and partly for political expediency. The longer he waits, the more chance the momentum behind him will wane.

His preferred route to the premiership would be in a “bloodless coup” whereby Starmer accepts that his time is up. At that point, he would signal a timetable for his departure and the Labour Party NEC would set a timetable for a leadership election. Burnham would of course prefer a coronation as the only MP to be able to gather 81 supporters, but Wes Streeting has already said he would stand in any contest, and others like Al Carns may also throw their hat in the ring. There will be a clamour from within the party membership for a contest, and MPs have a history of responding accordingly by ensuring more than one person gets enough support to get on the ballot.

If Starmer stands his ground, a far more divisive and destabilising challenge could play out, with at least one candidate needing to formally challenge the PM. Starmer and his team understand very well that holding the office brings with it inherent strength, and they are still insisting he would fight a challenge.

Their hope will be that by holding their nerve, Burnham and Streeting lose theirs.

PM Burnham?

So what would a potential Burnham premiership look like? It is both a strength and a weakness that there is some ambiguity in the answer to that. Burnham has shown throughout his career that he is ideologically flexible, and as Mayor of Greater Manchester declared he was a “place-first” mayor as opposed to a “party first”. But he has developed a political definition as Mayor, and those rumoured to be lined up to be in his Cabinet also give a clue as to the direction of travel. There would not be a massive change in direction, but a government and a Prime Minister slightly to the left of the current one would at least have a change of emphasis and priorities.

Burnham has already said he would not deviate from Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules, although he would be expected to appoint a new Chancellor. Balancing that with major spending commitments on social care, health, and his desired step up in public control of utilities would be his big challenge. Calming the markets would need to be a top priority to avoid a Labour version of the Liz Truss debacle. Achieving economic growth that people feel in their pockets will still be the measure of success for his government as it is for Starmer’s.

Prominent roles for Ed Miliband and Miatta Fahnbulleh would indicate a continuation in the same direction on energy and net zero policy. Both would be powerful figures in any Burnham government.

On transport, Burnham would similarly be expected to continue in the same vein, with more emphasis on greater public control to bring down fares. Former Transport Secretary Lou Haigh and the incumbent at DFT Heidi Alexander are both close to Burnham and have set that course already. Burnham would likely make it even more of a government priority.

And Burnham would seek to supercharge the government’s devolution agenda. Being Mayor has solidified his view that power, budgets, and accountability need to be devolved to mayors and local leaders. He sees the reforms brought in by the Tories and continued by Labour as vital to quick delivery on everything from housing to health, transport and skills – all of which are needed if Labour is to have a chance of retaining power at the next election.

How quickly this plays out is the question we still don’t know the answer to, but the coming days and weeks should give clarity as to what the coming years could look like.

This article was written by Stewart Owadally, Politics and Campaign Director, Grayling. Former General Election Director for the Labour Party in Wales.

The team at Grayling have been on the ground in Makerfield throughout the by-election campaign. We are comprised of Labour Party activists, campaign directors and those who have worked firsthand with Andy Burnham during successive political campaigns. We are here to advise you on the next stages of the process, the individuals who may likely form a future Cabinet, their advisers, and the likely direction of policy change.

Get in touch with alan.boyd-hall@grayling.com for more information.