In our latest CEE Outlook 2026, our Public Affairs teams explore the political, regulatory and geopolitical developments that will define the business environment in the year ahead. What binds these markets together in 2026 is not uniformity, but simultaneity – a shared moment of recalibration unfolding across the region.

Across Central and Eastern Europe, domestic political developments are unfolding against a backdrop of prolonged geopolitical uncertainty. Russia’s continued war against Ukraine remains the central organising force of Europe’s security architecture, while the European Union faces visible internal strain and growing pressure to redefine its strategic priorities.

What unites the CEE region in 2026 is not uniformity, but simultaneity: nearly every country is navigating political pressure, fiscal constraint and economic adjustment at the same time. Hungary’s parliamentary election in April stands out as a potential inflection point. Its outcome may shape not only Hungary’s domestic trajectory, but also wider debates within the European Union, from enlargement and sanctions policy to fiscal governance and the balance between integration and national sovereignty.

Elsewhere, political and economic dynamics remain equally consequential. Poland is managing institutional tensions between government and president while maintaining defence spending close to 5% of GDP. Romania faces coalition fragility and renewed fiscal pressure following sweeping tax measures. Slovakia is entering a polarised pre-election cycle alongside continued consolidation efforts, while Slovenia heads into tightly contested elections amid major pension and labour cost reforms. Bulgaria is grappling with renewed instability following euro adoption and rising inflation, and Croatia is balancing OECD accession ambitions with slowing growth and domestic political polarisation. In Serbia, political uncertainty and preparations for EXPO 2027 are shaping the investment climate, while Ukraine’s trajectory remains closely tied to developments on the battlefield and the pace of EU-aligned reforms.

Economic trends reflect this varied but simultaneous adjustment. Czechia, Bulgaria and Poland remain on a relatively stable path of non-inflationary expansion. Serbia and Croatia continue to post solid growth, albeit with comparatively elevated inflation. Hungary, Slovakia and Romania are closer to stagflation in 2025, although Hungary is projected to return to more balanced growth in 2026, alongside Slovenia, which is gradually emerging from a period of slow expansion. War-affected Ukraine faces a more fragile outlook, with persistently high inflation and subdued economic activity weighing on performance.

Source: European Economic Forecast – Autumn 2025 
Note: The displayed inflation and GDP growth values are forecasts and show y-o-y increase (%).

This year’s edition of Grayling’s CEE Outlook examines what these structural shifts mean for businesses, from fiscal consolidation and tax and labour reforms to industrial transformation, defence-driven spending, energy security and digitalisation pressures.

With 10 offices across the region, our CEE Public Affairs team is uniquely positioned to deliver political advocacy, strategic campaign support, stakeholder engagement and policy influence across sectors including energy, infrastructure and technology. In addition, our network in the US, Brussels and London enables us to support clients with cross-border market intelligence, coordinated public affairs strategies and high-level stakeholder engagement at both EU and transatlantic level.

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