Hamilton has a history of pivotal by-elections. In 1967, Winnie Ewing’s stunning upset of Labour propelled the SNP into contention across the country, cementing their journey into becoming a national party of government. Eighteen months ago, Michael Shanks’ victory at the overlapping Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat foreshadowed Labour’s breakthrough in Scotland at the General Election, ending the era of complete SNP dominance.

In 2025, a rare Scottish Parliament by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse has shaken Scottish politics, if not quite in the same way.

How the polls got it wrong (again)

For Scottish Labour to hold onto its voters and win the seat, despite the unpopularity of Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a difficult campaign, is a major morale boost. It will, at least rhetorically, boost the claim that only Labour can defeat the SNP across urban Scotland.

Anas Sarwar claimed his party had proven the pollsters, political commentators and even bookmakers wrong. He will now hope this result shows he can effectively squeeze Unionist votes to gain slim victories in other key constituencies at next May’s Holyrood elections, allowing him to win in the constituencies Labour already represents at Westminster.

No vote can be taken for granted

However, with a margin of just 602 votes, there is no guarantee this victory will be repeated in other contests in different circumstances – there are not enough constituencies similar to Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse to make Anas Sarwar First Minister next May. History is also instructive: in January 2014, Labour defeated the SNP to win a Scottish Parliament by-election in Cowdenbeath but still suffered two landslide defeats in the next three years.

That will console First Minister John Swinney, but the fact remains that the SNP’s support collapsed at this by-election, setting an uncomfortable pattern since the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon, with its core voters being lost to either apathy or other parties. This has yet to be addressed under Swinney’s leadership.

With Scottish independence remaining a distant prospect, and the SNP approaching two decades in power in Edinburgh, the question remains open as to how it can make a compelling pitch for a fifth term in office.

Don’t discount Reform yet

While coming third, Reform UK also gained over 25% of the vote. Its failure to breakthrough in Hamilton should not mean that its strong performance, validating its position in opinion polls, should be ignored.

Small post-industrial towns like Hamilton and Larkhall are areas where the radical right has hoovered up votes across Europe, whether in Lower Saxony, Lombardy or the Loire Valley. Today’s result shows Lanarkshire is no different.

As elsewhere, this poses a significant challenge for the traditional centre-left in challenging their claim to working class voters. It also poses a larger risk to the traditional centre-right, which faces being replaced wholesale as the traditional home for socially and economically conservative voters.

That poses an existential problem for the Scottish Conservatives – the campaign may have seen Nigel Farage set foot in Scotland for the first time in six years, but Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay will mentally feel his presence constantly over the next year, as he attempts to prevent a further wipeout of his party.

A year is a long time in politics

Scotland has a radical right party on the rise, a fragmented and unstable political landscape, the complex politics of identity cutting across traditional loyalties and voters who are angry at their political institutions and their economic situation – all of which may combine to produce an uncertain election and an unpredictable Parliament in 2026.

The SNP’s ambition has always been for Scotland to become a normal European country – the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election shows that it finally is one.

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