{"id":81206,"date":"2025-12-05T09:16:11","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T09:16:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/grayling.com\/?p=81206"},"modified":"2025-12-05T14:55:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T14:55:52","slug":"fracturing-consensus-what-the-uk-centre-rights-energy-debate-means-for-net-zero","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/grayling.com\/es\/news-and-views\/fracturing-consensus-what-the-uk-centre-rights-energy-debate-means-for-net-zero\/","title":{"rendered":"FRACTURING CONSENSUS: WHAT THE UK CENTRE-RIGHT\u2019S ENERGY DEBATE MEANS FOR NET ZERO"},"content":{"rendered":"

Reflections on The Spectator\u2019s Energy Summit 2025 by Ross McWilliams and Tom Cherrill<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Grayling’s Planning & Infrastructure<\/a> team attended The Spectator\u2019s Energy Summit<\/a> last week, where the right of British politics finds itself at a crossroads on energy policy. An event hosted by what many call \u201cthe Tory Bible\u201d was always going to spark lively debate \u2013 and it did not disappoint. The fracturing consensus around net zero was front and centre throughout the day.<\/p>\n

Across panels, keynotes, and networking discussions, three familiar themes dominated: Britain\u2019s energy system is too expensive, security of supply remains a concern, and demand for transmission infrastructure shows no sign of slowing.<\/p>\n

Opening the summit, Emma Pinchbeck, CEO of the Climate Change Committee (CCC), outlined the UK\u2019s Seventh Carbon Budget. She explained that CCC modelling anticipates capital costs peaking around 2029\/30 before falling as more transmission infrastructure and renewable generation come online. This peaking cost will likely align with higher additional costs being passed onto the consumer.<\/p>\n

\"Emma

<\/figure> Emma Pinchbeck explaining how CCC\u2019s modelling shows upfront capital provides long-term saving<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Debates around the CCC\u2019s assumptions were a recurring theme, with panellists, such as Kathryn Porter of Watt-Logic – now a leading voice in centre-right energy policy – challenging the roadmap. Despite this, the Government\u2019s overarching vision remains a lower-carbon economy powered by cheaper, home-grown electricity, reducing exposure to volatile international markets once the transition is complete.<\/p>\n

If the CCC\u2019s modelling proves accurate, and current polling holds, a Reform UK-led government could take office, on the back of campaigning against net zero policies, just as energy prices hit their peak. Ironically, that same government might then preside over falling prices soon after, as more renewables and transmission infrastructure come online.<\/p>\n

Yet scepticism on the centre-right is growing. Critics, including Shadow Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho MP, called for halting the transition or pivoting toward gas and nuclear. But unless they enter government within the next 18 months, Britain\u2019s energy system will look very different by the time voters return to the polls.<\/p>\n

Amid the political debate, innovation was on full display. FireFly showcased advances in sustainable aviation fuel, while Core Power explored \u2018floating nuclear\u2019 to power cargo ships \u2013 solutions designed for the world as it will be, assuming the transition stays on course.<\/p>\n

While future planning is essential, the summit\u2019s focus was firmly on the present: the energy challenges Britain faces in 2025. Three themes dominated discussions \u2013 affordability, sustainability, and availability.<\/p>\n

Long-term innovation will shape the future of Britain\u2019s energy system, but the success of that vision depends on tackling today\u2019s realities. At the summit, one issue stood out above all others: affordability. High energy costs are placing immense pressure on households and businesses, and speakers warned that without urgent action, the economic and political consequences could be severe.<\/p>\n

Britain\u2019s energy affordability challenge<\/strong><\/h5>\n

The dominant theme of the day was clear: Britain\u2019s energy is simply too expensive. High prices are squeezing households and hitting industry hard \u2013 particularly manufacturing. Shadow Business & Trade Secretary Andrew Griffith MP warned that if costs remain high, businesses, supply chains, and innovators could be forced to relocate abroad.<\/p>\n

One of the event\u2019s most animated moments was a \u2018no-holds-barred\u2019 debate between wind energy optimists and sceptics. Kathryn Porter and Lord Ridley delivered compelling critiques of the net zero transition, arguing that it carries significant financial, economic, and environmental costs. Lord Ridley highlighted that it could take years to offset the construction cost of a turbine and, using the EREI model (Energy Returned on Energy Invested), claimed the returns on investment are \u201cmedieval.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Panel

<\/figure> Panel discussing the role of wind in our energy system, hosted by Lucy Dunn<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Porter reinforced this argument by highlighting renewable intermittency as a key driver of high prices. A power source that operates, on average, only one-third of the time inevitably requires gas to remain on standby \u2013 bringing added cost and complexity. This challenge has become so familiar that the German term dunkelflaute (a prolonged period of low renewable output caused by low wind and sunlight) has entered the energy lexicon.<\/p>\n

Even supporters of renewables acknowledged its limitations. Dan Marks, Research Fellow at RUSI, conceded that wind is \u201cnot a silver bullet\u201d but rather one part of the solution. While Porter and Lord Ridley made strong in-principle arguments against wind, Marks countered with a pragmatic point: changing course mid-transition would create the worst of all worlds – uncertainty for investors, businesses, and consumers.<\/p>\n

If the alternative is a pivot to gas, new terminals and storage assets would take years to build – likely coming online at the end of the decade, just as renewable-driven price reductions are expected. Meanwhile, Britain\u2019s energy system is already being fundamentally rewired to integrate large-scale wind generation. There is no clear roadmap for how a short- to medium-term shift toward gas and nuclear could occur without risking blackouts or increasing reliance on foreign supply.<\/p>\n

In her closing remarks, Claire Coutinho MP argued that many high costs stem from policy choices, citing the Carbon Tax and Renewables Obligation (RO) subsidies, which she claimed could be removed \u201covernight\u201d to cut bills. Notably, the latest budget shifts 75% of RO costs from energy bills to general taxation \u2013 a move Labour says will reduce household bills by around \u00a370 a year.<\/p>\n

Coutinho also criticised the current Contracts for Difference (CfDs) structure, warning that inflation-indexed contracts make it nearly impossible to deliver meaningful price cuts. Interestingly, the government\u2019s recent publication on energy market reform signals that even the gas industry may require CfD-style mechanisms in the future to ensure investment and security of supply \u2013 highlighting the complexity of any proposed pivot away from renewables.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead to the next General Election, her message was clear: \u201cThere is no democratic consensus for an expensive energy system.\u201d What remains unclear is what the Conservatives propose as an alternative \u2013 especially with prices forecast to fall by 2029, setting Tory rhetoric and policy on a collision course. Creating consensus that the current system could be improved is not the same as building a consensus for what should happen next.<\/p>\n

Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy, argued that the real solution lies in tackling economic rent within the system, which is creating a situation where consumers are forced to pay prices linked to expensive gas generation even when cheap renewables dominate supply. He called for market reform to decouple electricity prices from gas and leverage flexibility so households benefit from low-cost renewable energy rather than structural inefficiencies. By contrast, Coutinho\u2019s approach seemed more focussed on cutting taxes, reducing subsidies and changing the mix of generation, e.g., increasing gas and nuclear, rather than addressing the underlying market design that drives high prices.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, looking ahead to the next General Election, Coutinho\u2019s message was clear: \u201cThere is no democratic consensus for an expensive energy system.\u201d What remains unclear is what the Conservatives propose as an alternative especially with prices forecast to fall by 2029, setting Tory rhetoric and forecasts on a collision course.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Reform UK may be minded to adopt a more nuanced energy position if they expect to form the next government. Their current platform is staunchly anti\u2013net-zero, framing the transition as the albatross on consumer bills. Yet by 2029, they may inherit an energy system where consumer costs related to transition have peaked and future energy bills are on track to fall. Arguing against renewables as being too expensive only then to see bills fall as a result of renewables would leave little room for manoeuvre.<\/p>\n

\"Claire

<\/figure> Claire Coutinho providing closing remarks<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Reliability of renewables<\/strong><\/h5>\n

A recurring theme at the summit was the sustainability and resilience of the UK\u2019s energy supply \u2013 specifically, whether the system can guarantee consistent, reliable access to power in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.<\/p>\n

Wind and solar offer low operating costs and help cut carbon emissions, but their intermittent nature creates uncertainty, forcing continued reliance on gas. All speakers agreed that our gas supply \u2013 and the price we pay for it \u2013 remains exposed to international markets and hostile foreign action, with the 2022 invasion of Ukraine still fresh in memory. This vulnerability persists, with the UK\u2019s various subsea connections remaining at risk, with Bill Esterson MP making specific warning on this regarding LNG pipelines to Europe.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, the UK\u2019s approach to the North Sea drew criticism. With abundant natural gas reserves on our doorstep, restricting new licences risks replacing domestic supply with imports from much further afield – at greater economic and environmental cost. Dhara Vyas, CEO of Energy UK, stressed the urgency of a coherent gas strategy, noting that supply chains are already under strain. With waits for critical gas terminal equipment now stretching from weeks to years, bringing new gas online by the end of the decade could be ambitious.<\/p>\n

Geopolitical risk is not limited to Russia. China\u2019s growing dominance in clean energy technology also raised alarm. Greg Jackson highlighted that China now holds 75% of global clean-energy patents, giving it enormous influence over emerging technologies and pricing. He warned that UK policy is failing to keep pace with market realities, citing government forecasts that predicted EV battery costs at \u00a3350 by 2030 when prices have already fallen to \u00a362.<\/p>\n

For many speakers, the solution lies in diversification. The UK already benefits from a mix of energy sources \u2013 wind, solar, biomass, and gas \u2013 providing resilience. Ben Wilson, President of National Grid Ventures, emphasised that this diversity is critical given the UK\u2019s status as a net energy importer. Bill Esterson MP reinforced the point, noting that a diversified system is far easier to protect than a handful of vulnerable gas terminals.<\/p>\n

Demand for transmission infrastructure showing no signs of slowing<\/strong><\/h5>\n

If affordability and sustainability framed the debate, availability dominated it. By the close of the summit, one message was unmistakable: all roads lead back to the grid. It is the backbone of Britain\u2019s energy system \u2013 powering everything from data centres to hospital equipment. Even a panel on international trade and the Port of Dover circled back to the need for additional grid connections.<\/p>\n

The port is not an isolated case. A 60GW connection backlog continues to slow progress nationwide, with Ben Wilson, President of National Grid Ventures (NGV), emphasising that resolving this \u201cwill always be the critical path.\u201d Asked how to accelerate delivery, Wilson pointed to cutting regulatory red tape particularly lengthy pre-consultation periods \u2013 and boosting resourcing within the Planning Inspectorate. He also suggested easing costs by shifting consumer charges to the construction phase rather than operation, spreading the financial burden over a longer period and earlier in the process.<\/p>\n

Dhara Vyas, CEO of Energy UK, reinforced the urgency of upgrades and called for greater transparency from government on timelines and costs highlighting that these improvements are essential to meet growing demand and deliver net zero. She also argued that increasing average demand during high-supply periods could boost flexibility and smooth pricing.<\/p>\n

National Grid is already responding with the largest overhaul of the electricity network in generations: The Great Grid Upgrade. This programme will connect more home-grown and renewable energy to homes and businesses, supporting the UK\u2019s commitment to deliver 40GW of offshore wind by 2030. The Great Grid Upgrade involves major reinforcement of the transmission network, new connections, and substantial new projects to ensure energy flows from where it is generated to where it is needed.<\/p>\n

Concluding thoughts<\/strong><\/h5>\n

From the outset, The Spectator\u2019s Energy Summit promised lively debate and it delivered. What began with Emma Pinchbeck\u2019s overview of the CCC\u2019s Seventh Carbon Budget and its assumptions about falling costs after 2029 set the tone for a day defined by tension between long-term ambition and short-term realities. The fracturing consensus on net zero, highlighted in the opening panels, ran through every discussion whether on affordability, security, or infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Taken together, the summit revealed an energy sector navigating political uncertainty, technological momentum and the unavoidable realities of transition. While opinions diverged sharply on pace and shape, there was consensus on three tests for Britain\u2019s energy future: keeping power affordable for households and industry, ensuring security and sustainability in a turbulent geopolitical landscape and enabling the grid and wider infrastructure to keep pace with accelerating demand.<\/p>\n

These themes will continue to shape the debate, direction, and delivery of the UK\u2019s energy system as we move closer to the next general election. As the summit made clear, the choices made now on market reform, generation mix and infrastructure will determine whether the vision of a lower-carbon, home-grown energy future becomes reality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Reflections on The Spectator\u2019s Energy Summit 2025 by Ross McWilliams and Tom Cherrill Grayling’s Planning & Infrastructure team attended The Spectator\u2019s Energy Summit last week, where the right of British politics finds itself at a crossroads on energy policy. 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