Hamilton has a history of pivotal by-elections. In 1967, Winnie Ewing\u2019s stunning upset of Labour propelled the SNP into contention across the country, cementing their journey into becoming a national party of government. Eighteen months ago, Michael Shanks\u2019 victory at the overlapping Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat foreshadowed Labour\u2019s breakthrough in Scotland at the General Election, ending the era of complete SNP dominance.<\/p>\n
In 2025, a rare Scottish Parliament by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse has shaken Scottish politics, if not quite in the same way.<\/p>\n
How the polls got it wrong (again)<\/strong><\/p>\n For Scottish Labour to hold onto its voters and win the seat, despite the unpopularity of Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a difficult campaign, is a major morale boost. It will, at least rhetorically, boost the claim that only Labour can defeat the SNP across urban Scotland.<\/p>\n Anas Sarwar claimed his party had proven the pollsters, political commentators and even bookmakers wrong. He will now hope this result shows he can effectively squeeze Unionist votes to gain slim victories in other key constituencies at next May\u2019s Holyrood elections, allowing him to win in the constituencies Labour already represents at Westminster.<\/p>\n No vote can be taken for granted<\/strong><\/p>\n However, with a margin of just 602 votes, there is no guarantee this victory will be repeated in other contests in different circumstances \u2013 there are not enough constituencies similar to Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse to make Anas Sarwar First Minister next May. History is also instructive: in January 2014, Labour defeated the SNP to win a Scottish Parliament by-election in Cowdenbeath but still suffered two landslide defeats in the next three years.<\/p>\n That will console First Minister John Swinney, but the fact remains that the SNP\u2019s support collapsed at this by-election, setting an uncomfortable pattern since the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon, with its core voters being lost to either apathy or other parties. This has yet to be addressed under Swinney\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n With Scottish independence remaining a distant prospect, and the SNP approaching two decades in power in Edinburgh, the question remains open as to how it can make a compelling pitch for a fifth term in office.<\/p>\n Don\u2019t discount Reform yet<\/strong><\/p>\n While coming third, Reform UK also gained over 25% of the vote. Its failure to breakthrough in Hamilton should not mean that its strong performance, validating its position in opinion polls, should be ignored.<\/p>\n Small post-industrial towns like Hamilton and Larkhall are areas where the radical right has hoovered up votes across Europe, whether in Lower Saxony, Lombardy or the Loire Valley. Today\u2019s result shows Lanarkshire is no different.<\/p>\n As elsewhere, this poses a significant challenge for the traditional centre-left in challenging their claim to working class voters. It also poses a larger risk to the traditional centre-right, which faces being replaced wholesale as the traditional home for socially and economically conservative voters.<\/p>\n That poses an existential problem for the Scottish Conservatives \u2013 the campaign may have seen Nigel Farage set foot in Scotland for the first time in six years, but Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay will mentally feel his presence constantly over the next year, as he attempts to prevent a further wipeout of his party.<\/p>\n A year is a long time in politics<\/strong><\/p>\n Scotland has a radical right party on the rise, a fragmented and unstable political landscape, the complex politics of identity cutting across traditional loyalties and voters who are angry at their political institutions and their economic situation \u2013 all of which may combine to produce an uncertain election and an unpredictable Parliament in 2026.<\/p>\n The SNP\u2019s ambition has always been for Scotland to become a normal European country \u2013 the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election shows that it finally is one.<\/p>\n Want to stay ahead?<\/strong><\/p>\n At Grayling Scotland, we specialise in helping businesses navigate the complexities of Scotland’s evolving political landscape. With the 2026 Holyrood elections poised to bring significant changes, engaging proactively and strategically is more important than ever.<\/p>\n We’ve designed an election survival kit<\/a> – find out more by getting in touch with the team today at\u00a0ScotlandTeam@Grayling.com<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Hamilton has a history of pivotal by-elections. In 1967, Winnie Ewing\u2019s stunning upset of Labour propelled the SNP into contention across the country, cementing their journey into becoming a national party of government. Eighteen months ago, Michael Shanks\u2019 victory at the overlapping Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat foreshadowed Labour\u2019s breakthrough in Scotland at the General…","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":71222,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[673],"tags":[680,702],"class_list":["post-71205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-views-blogs","tag-public-affairs","tag-scotland"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n